As Scotland goes to the polls the enormity of the decision it is facing is now in sharp focus. The bookies who normally call it right are offering 4-1 on a ‘Yes’ vote meaning that a ‘no’ vote must be the likely outcome. However there is a good argument that the pollsters and bookies just might be wrong. The latest turnout is forecasted to beat all records with around 83% expected to have their say. This dramatic increase in turnout is likely to have come disproportionately from ‘yes’ voters who have never voted before or been engaged in any political debate. Many of these previously disenfranchised voters are young or notoriously difficult to poll accurately making the possibility of a surprise result very real.
What would a ‘yes’ vote mean for sterling and therefore the gold price?
The pound fell sharply last week as the possibility of a ‘yes’ vote weighed on sterling. The financial markets are almost certainly be betting the same way as the bookies and therefore a surprise ‘yes’ is very likely to cause a sharp further fall in sterling. This would lead to a direct increase in the gold prices for UK investors.
In months following a ‘yes’ vote the uncertainty created is unlikely to be good for the UK and could have far reaching and unexpected consequences. In the longer term it is much more difficult to predict the impact on either Scotland or the remainder of the UK let alone the gold price.
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