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Updated 14:12 01/03/21

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July Gold News 2015

The Brazilian Central Bank has increased its interest rate by 0.5% to 14.25% in an attempt to stabilise the currency and combat inflationary pressures. The economy is expected to contract this year by 2.5%.

The real is now trading at a 12 year low against the dollar and interest rates are at their highest level since 2006. Inflation is now running at 9.15% and many prices are increasing simply because people expect them to.

According to Goldman Sacs the world economy is experiencing a “negative feedback loop.” Commodity prices are spiralling downwards as Chinese demand cools, causing the currency of commodity ...

31 Jul 2015, 4:12 p.m.
Duncan Richardson

 With inflation reported to be at least 65% it appears Venezuela is on the brink of a hyperinflationary collapse. The countries murder rate is now the second highest in the world and chronic food shortages are hurting an already suffering population.

The bolivar has lost 43% of its value in the last month alone. The falling oil price has crushed the government finances and drained the countries foreign reserves.

As the country cranks up the printing press to pay their expenses a hyperinflationary collapse now seems inevitable. In the last 12 months the money supply has expanded by 85%.The destruction ...

31 Jul 2015, 8:33 a.m.
Duncan Richardson

Since hitting an all-time high of £29 per ounce in 2011 the silver price has been in the doldrums. However, the fundamentals for silver have never been better. In their latest report the Silver Institute states that the silver market will experience a 57.7 million ounce deficit in 2015, largely due to a surge in retail demand.

Industrial demand has also been strong with the solar industry using 8% more silver than in the corresponding period in 2014. Demand from ethylene oxide producers and the electronic industry also rose in 2015.

In the first 6 months of 2015 total global ...

29 Jul 2015, 11:10 a.m.
Adam Pike

China’s stockmarket is in freefall, after falling over 8% on Monday China’s largest stock market fell a further 4% overnight as concerns grow the Chinese economy is stalling.

On Monday’s Shanghai Composite fell 8.5% to 3,725.56 points. The fall rattled markets in Europe with the FTSE 100 falling over 1% and the main share indexes in France and Germany dropping more than 2%. Over the last 2 months the Chinese stock market has fallen over 32%.

Overnight the Chinese regulator confirmed the government would continue to buy shares to help stabilise the market. The Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) also ...

28 Jul 2015, 11:18 a.m.
Duncan Richardson

In the last few years the gold price has experienced some significant swings and if you look at the current price you would assume both gold and silver was in the depths of despair. However, as the Comex price declined physical buying has exploded. The U.S. Mint has seen record buying and the Perth Mint reported a surge in retail demand. As demand surged premiums rose to reflect the lack of physical gold available.

The U.S. Mint has sold over 100,000 American 1 oz. gold coins in July, the highest monthly recording since April 2013 and there is one week ...

27 Jul 2015, 10:13 a.m.
Duncan Richardson

Despite the gold pricing struggling over the last 4 years, gold is still the best performing asset class of the last decade returning an average yield of 10%. Gold was the best or second best performing asset in five of the seven years between 2005 and 2011.

10 year returns by asset class:

24 Jul 2015, 10:36 a.m.
Duncan Richardson

As gold plunged to a five year low physical demand for bars and coins has surged. The Perth Mint reported a spike in sales as retail investors rushed to take advantage of the latest price decline.

Increased demand for jewellery in China and India, the world’s largest consumers has led to physical shortages and premiums to double. This weeks surge in China is a welcome sign as interest in the yellow metal had declined as investors had switched their focus to a surging stock market.

Only in a market where the price is dictated by Comex driven selling can physical ...

23 Jul 2015, 9:52 a.m.
Duncan Richardson

The gold price has dipped below £700 an ounce for the first time in five and a half years, shedding 4.5% since trading opened on Sunday evening. Supplies for physical gold bars and coins from major mints and refiners are beginning to dry up. As demand and interest in physical gold spikes, many mints and refineries are ramping up production. Lead times on physical gold has been pushed back a couple of days as they adjust to meet the unusually high demand. Just 3 months ago the price of gold was over £800 an ounce, ...

22 Jul 2015, 4:24 p.m.
Peter Walden

Russia added to their gold reserves once again in the month of June according to the Russian Central Bank website. The Central Bank added a further 24 tonnes to their reserves, bringing their total buying for the first 6 months of the year to 67 tonnes.

With Western sanctions still in place many analysts expect the Russian authorities to maintain their buying throughout 2015. Russia now owns 1,275 tonnes making them the seventh largest holders of the yellow metal. In 2014 Russia bought more gold than in any year since the breakup of the Soviet Union according to the World ...

22 Jul 2015, 4:22 p.m.
Duncan Richardson

Speculators launched an unprecedented attack on the gold price yesterday, driving the gold price under $1,100 for the first time in 5 years. 

The gold price fell over 4% during Sunday evening after an anonymous traders sold 57 tonnes of gold simultaneously in New York and Shanghai. The traders were executed at the most illiquid time of the day in what appears to be a premediated move to smash both the price and investor confidence.

7,600 contracts or 24 tonnes of paper gold was sold in New York during a two minute period late on Sunday night. At the same ...

21 Jul 2015, 3:47 p.m.
Dovile Taraskute

The gold price fell to £690 per ounce and silver £9.35 per ounce during Asian trading as the price crashed in a matter of seconds to levels not seen since 2009. The gold price has since recovered to £714 per ounce.

Just before China opened for trading all four of the precious metals tumbled when “someone” sold 2.7bn in gold contacts. The price fall triggered a large number of automatic sale orders which would have wiped out the entire bid stack. This latest price smash could have been a well-orchestrated trade initiated by a high frequency trade or the BIS ...

20 Jul 2015, 10:15 a.m.
Duncan Richardson

During Wednesday trading the gold price dropped to its lowest level since November 2014. The price declined after the US Fed said they favour an interest rise during 2015.

The futures price declined $10 to as low as $1,141.90 per ounce following Janet Yellen’s latest comments. This is the lowest price since November 7th when the price briefly touched $1,135 per ounce.

Golds current price weakness is more to do with speculators trading on the Comex rather than physical demand from retail and institutional investors. Last week investors such as hedge funds cut their bullish positions by a massive 64%. ...

16 Jul 2015, 12:17 p.m.
Duncan Richardson

Last night the Greek parliament voted to implement a series of new austerity measures demanded by their European creditors.  

In the end the Greeks had no choice.  Had parliament voted against the new proposals the economy would have faced total collapse. The proposals passed through parliament with 229 voting in favour and 66 against.

38 government politicians either abstained or voted against the measures, including outspoken Yanis Varoufakis the former finance minister. Now the bill has been passed the Greek parliament can start negotiating with their creditors on their 86 bn euro bailout.

As the debate unfolded 12,000 protestors ...

16 Jul 2015, 11:16 a.m.
Adam Pike

The International Monetary Funds (IMF) has issued a stark warning that the Greek economy will never recover unless a proportion of its debt is written off. The warning comes as a divided Greek parliament prepares to vote on a new bailout package demanded by their European leaders. In a leaked report the IMF confirmed Greece’s debts will remain unsustainable even if the government votes for another bailout.

Greek Prime Minister, Alexis Tsipras, is struggling to persuade his party to vote for further austerity measures. If the Greek parliament rejects the latest bailout proposals the country runs the risk of being ...

15 Jul 2015, 9:32 a.m.
Duncan Richardson

China is becoming more and more vocal over its desire to have a greater influence over the global mechanism for pricing gold. Given China is the centre of the world’s physical gold market it makes sense they would want to wrestle control away from the paper driven Comex market.  After all, China is the world’s largest consumer and producer of gold.

In June, the Bank of China became the first Chinese bank to officially join the London Gold Fix. Two more Chinese banks are expected to join later this year. By obtaining a seat on the fix Chinese banks will ...

14 Jul 2015, 11:19 a.m.
Peter Walden

After hours of negotiations it appears European leaders have finally come up with a rescue plan for Greece. The final deal was agreed by German’s Angela Merkel, French President Hollande and Greek premier Alexis Tsipras.

Following all-night talks, Merkel confirmed that the new deal will be worth 86bn to 87 bn over the next three years. It appears Germany pressured the Greek government to implement tough reforms and accept close monitoring of its economy and government spending.

Alex Tsipras will now to have raise the retirement age and increase a number of taxes by Wednesday. The reforms will have to ...

13 Jul 2015, 10:46 a.m.
Duncan Richardson

More and more people are questioning if the gold and silver price are manipulated lower.

Over the last two weeks the gold price has actually fallen despite the events in Greece and meltdown of the Chinese stock market. The complete opposite to what conventional wisdom would expect i.e. gold and silver prices rise during economic and political turmoil.

For instance Greece’s future in the Eurozone is in doubt and there is speculation that they will be forced to return to the drachma. If they do exit the euro and default on their debts will Spain, Italy and Portugal follow?

Normally ...

10 Jul 2015, 9:48 a.m.
Duncan Richardson

The Greek government have confirmed banks will remain closed until Monday and the daily limit on ATM withdrawals will stay at 60 euros. The banks have been closed since the 28th of June after talks broke down between the Greek government and their international creditors.

The EU, ECB and IMF have given Greece until Sunday to come up with a credible plan. Donald Tusk, the European Council, President believes this is the most critical moment in the history of the Eurozone. If a deal cannot be reached and further funds released Greece runs the risk of bankruptcy and being expelled ...

9 Jul 2015, 10:50 a.m.
Duncan Richardson

As the silver price fell to a new 6 year low on Tuesday as physical buying exploded. So much so the U.S. Mint have run out of 2015 American Silver Eagle 1 oz. coins. The Mint which is based in West Point New York confirmed they will continue to mint the coins sales will resume within the next 2 week.

The physical shortage started on Tuesday as the silver price dropped over 5.5% to $14.96 per ounce to settle at new 6 year low.  Silver sales at BullionByPost spiked as investors took advantage of the price decline to increase their ...

9 Jul 2015, 10:07 a.m.
Duncan Richardson

Alexis Tsipras the Greek Prime Minister will present a new set of proposals to the Eurozone later today in an attempt to halt the meltdown of the Greek economy.

Tsipras will ask his countries creditors to take a 30% hair cut on their outstanding debt, after the Greek population rejected the Troika's latest bailout deal in Sunday’s referendum.

The ECB, IMF and European Commission have urged the Greek government to make “serious” proposals after months of negotiations. The ECB is keeping up the pressure by refusing to increase emergency lending to the Greek banks and demanding extra collateral for existing ...

7 Jul 2015, 9:59 a.m.
Adam Pike

The Greek people have rejected further austerity measures demanded by the IMF, EU and European commission. If nothing else this was a brave move as the country now faces the real possibility that their banking system could collapse. 61% of Greeks supported the government and voted no to further austerity.

The ball is now back firmly in the court of the troika and they will now have to decide if Greece can stay in the monetary Union. More pressing the ECB faces an immediate decision over whether to continue freezing emergency liquidity assistance to the Greek banks. If Greek banks ...

6 Jul 2015, 9:21 a.m.
Duncan Richardson

The Greek economy is on the brink of sliding into the abyss as customer’s line up outside ATM’s to withdraw their 60 euros.

Constantine Michalos, head of the Greek Chambers of Commerce said, “the banks are simply going to run out of money and according to my sources are down to their last 500 million euros. If you think the banks are going to reopen on Tuesday you should think again. The cash will run out within an hour”

Greek business have been frozen out of Europe’s payment system and are unable to import or export goods.  The enforced bank ...

3 Jul 2015, 10:38 a.m.
Peter Walden
Gold 10.0%
S&P 400 (Mid Cap U.S. Equities) 9.6%
Emerging Markets Equities 8.8%
Russell 2000 (U.S. small cap equities) 7.7%
REITS (Real Estate Investment Trust)