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Updated 03:28 12/05/21

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November Gold News 2015

The global economy is grinding to a halt. Non-Government data is pointing to falling demand across all levels of the economy. The Baltic Dry Index, which measures the price of moving raw material by sea, and often seen as an important economic indicator is at an all-time low.  As western demand weakens commodity prices are in freefall. Copper, lead, zinc, nickel and aluminium are all trading at or near five year lows. Worryingly, this contraction is occurring as western economies prepare for the busiest shopping period of the year.

So why on Friday, after Russia announced a raft of sanctions ...

30 Nov 2015, 1:22 p.m.
Duncan Richardson

The gold price has now advanced for two consecutive days following the downing of a Russian fighter by Turkish forces. The gold price has advanced by £10 and now trades at £711 per ounce. Historically, gold outperforms traditional assets during times of geopolitical uncertainty.

Vladimir Putin, reacted angrily and said the shooting down of the fighter by Turkish fighters would have “serious consequences.” The Turkish government are standing by their original position that the Russian jet violated Turkish airspace and a prior warning had been sent. Russia denies all claims.

In response, Russia’s has deployed a missile cruiser in the ...

26 Nov 2015, 11 a.m.
Adam Pike

The big money is slowly selling their government bonds, which are possibly the most overvalued asset in the world. After a decade of endless of money printing and zero percent interest rates, nobody wants to be left holding the asset when inflation ignites. There is an estimated $6 trillion of government debt trading below zero which is remarkable considering core inflation is now 2.7%.

The Norwegian Pension Fund is quietly selling $860bn of government debt and investing the proceeds into commercial property in Paris, London, New York, San Francisco, Berlin, Tokyo and East Asia. Like precious metals property is seen ...

25 Nov 2015, 4:02 p.m.
Duncan Richardson

Swiss bank, Schwiez, is the first to charge customers for depositing money in an ordinary checking account. This week the bank wrote to their customers telling them they will be charged a negative rate of -0.125% for depositing money and -0.75% if the balance exceeds 100,000 Swiss francs.

Worryingly, Bank of England Chief Economist Andy Haldane believes negative interest rates should be considered as a policy option if the economy enters another economy crisis. The Bank of England have kept rates on hold at 0.5% for over six years.

Mr Haldane suggested one way around the problem of customers withdrawing ...

24 Nov 2015, 12:45 p.m.
Adam Pike

The pillars which have supported the global economy since the 2008 economic crash appear to cracking.

Business have taken on debt like never before with the U.S. shale industry leading the way. The falling oil price is now taking its toll. Chesapeake once the largest shale oil producer in the U.S has seen its share price tumble as investors head for the exit. The cost to insure against the company defaulting on its debt has gone parabolic. If oil remains below the cost of production Chesapeake is just one of many shale producers which will default ...

23 Nov 2015, 10:59 a.m.
Duncan Richardson

The European Central Bank is ready to increase the size of its existing quantitative easing program to ensure they create inflation throughout the Eurozone. Mario Draghi and is colleagues at the ECB will do whatever it takes to ensure the money supply continues to grow and inflation rises.

To achieve this goal the ECB will either increase the amount of monthly money printing via quantitative easing or take the bank's deposit rate further into negative territory. If economic headwinds remain the ECB will likely to introduce the new measures on the 3rd of December.

So far QE has not worked, ...

20 Nov 2015, 2:56 p.m.
Peter Walden

Central Bankers across the globe are waging a war on cash.

The French government has banned cash transactions over 1,000 euros. Whilst Spain has made cash transactions over 2,500 euro’s illegal. Italy, Russia, Switzerland, Mexico, Uruguay have all lowered cash transaction limits in the last 12 months

Many libertarians worry central bankers want to remove physical cash from the system. A cashless society would be the taxman’s dream as they would have knowledge and control over the finances of every citizen.

Sweden is leading the way and according to credit Suisse 80% of all transactions in the Swedish economy are ...

19 Nov 2015, 3:48 p.m.
Duncan Richardson

The gold price continues to struggle under $1,100 per ounce, as traders look ahead to the release of today’s inflation data for clues on the likelihood of Fed rate rise. The gold price has now declined for the sixth straight day despite the terrible events in Paris.

If inflation is lower than expected the chances of a rate rise diminish which in turn will be bullish for the gold price. The Fed is desperate to create inflation by continually expanding the money supply.

In dollar terms the gold price has fallen to a five year low on expectations the Federal ...

17 Nov 2015, 11:35 a.m.
Adam Pike

Many believe the Federal Reserve is a United States government organisation, others believe it is owned by the Rothschild’s or even the Queen of England.  

Although, the Fed is portrayed as a branch of the government in reality it’s as Federal as Federal express. The actual shareholders are private American Banks who receive a 6% annual dividend directly from the Fed. Which is not bad when savers are lucky to receive a 1% return on their deposits. According, to the Political Research Associates the top shareholders in the New York Fed are as follows:

Chase Manhattan Bank


Morgan ...

17 Nov 2015, 11:34 a.m.
Duncan Richardson

Despite a falling gold price record numbers of private individuals are buying gold and silver bullion, as fears of a global slowdown increase.

The anticipation of a U.S. interest rate hike has boosted the U.S. dollar and put downward pressure on the gold price. The gold price fell last week to a new five year low of $1,083, which equates to a 43% fall from its September 2011 all-time high of $1,900 per ounce.

However, low prices and unpresented intervention from the world’s central banks is attracting investors to the yellow metal. Gold has been money for over 5,000 years ...

16 Nov 2015, 12:54 p.m.
Duncan Richardson

The Japanese economy has contracted for the second consecutive quarter and slid back into recession for the fifth time since the 2008 economic crisis. Policymakers are coming under increasing pressure to increase the size of its current QE program to stop the economy falling into deep recession.

The world’s third largest economy shrank by 0.2% in the second quarter and 0.7% in the third. Analysts said the poor data will put extra pressure on the Central Bank to continue with already massive quantitative easing program. The Japanese Stock market reacted negatively to the news falling 1.1%. Despite printing trillions of ...

16 Nov 2015, 12:53 p.m.
Adam Pike

According to the latest data release form Eurostat in the month of September 37.6 tonnes of gold was exported from the United Kingdom to China. Year to date 280 tonnes of gold have left these shores for China, whilst 70 tonnes have been imported into the UK. The movement of gold from west to east is accelerating and is not being reported by the mainstream media.

Prior to 2014 all gold leaving the UK for China was first shipped to either Switzerland or Hong Kong, presumably for refining and then shipped to mainland China. This process has now slowed with ...

13 Nov 2015, 2:51 p.m.
Peter Walden

Following China’s decision to devalue the yuan in the summer demand for retail gold bars and coins has surged according to the World Gold Councils (WGC) latest report.

Coupled with a falling gold price in the third quarter global demand rose by 8% when compared to the same period last year to 1,121 metric tonnes. The prospect of a U.S. interest rate rise drove the gold price to a five year low sparking a global buying frenzy.

Global coin and bar demand rose 33% in the third quarter to 295.7 tonnes, led primarily by the Chinese. According to the WGC’s ...

12 Nov 2015, 4:21 p.m.
Duncan Richardson

Former U.S. finance controller Dave Walker says the American public are being misled about the true size the of the countries debt. The countries official debt stands at $18.5 trillion which equates to $57,860 for every man women and child. However, when you include all the countries unfunded liabilities the real figure is closer to $65 trillion.

The former controller who headed the Government Accountability Office under both Bill Clinton and George Bush said the countries debt is unsustainable and Americans have lost touch with reality when it comes to credit and deficit spending.

According to Forbes magazine each U.S. ...

11 Nov 2015, 12:15 p.m.
Adam Pike

Seven years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers the finance system still needs to raise a further $1.2 trillion to stop a bank failure bringing down the global financial system.

According to the Financial Stability Board, the banking system needs an injection of $1.2 trillion to ensure today's banking giants can be wound down without the need for a taxpayer bailout.

The recommendation comes after years of work by the board and calls for the world’s largest 30 banks to increase their capital cushions. Since the 2008 banking crisis, the industry has consolidated into a number of big players and ...

11 Nov 2015, 12:14 p.m.
Duncan Richardson

The gold price has recovered after hitting a 2 month low of £720.00 per ounce on Wednesday. This week’s price decline and rally to $1,200 was cut short by the Fed after they convinced the market a rate rise is a possibility in December. Many doubt after 7 years the Fed will raise rates and increase the cost of borrowing prior to the Christmas shopping spree.

Attention has now shifted to the release of today’s U.S. non-farm report. A better than expected result would put more downward pressure on the gold price. Should the price fall through the key resistance ...

6 Nov 2015, 11:11 a.m.
Peter Walden

Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, has launched 3 government backed gold schemes in attempt to reduce physical gold demand and free up 20,000 tonnes of gold held by Indian households. In the first 6 months of 2015 the Indian population bought 562 tonnes of gold.

Under the Gold Monetisation Scheme (GMS) Indian residents will have the option to deposit their gold and receive 2.5% annual interest payment. Whilst under the Sovereign Gold Bond Scheme investors will receive 2.75% for purchasing paper bonds.

Modi also unveiled the countries first ever gold coin bearing Ashok Chakra the countries national symbol. Initially the ...

5 Nov 2015, 2:20 p.m.
Duncan Richardson

The gold price has fallen to a near five year low of £720.00 per ounce, as investors reduced their Comex positions on fears the Fed will raise interest rates in December. The gold price has now dropped over £40 per ounce since Janet Yellen first left the door open for a rate rise before the end of 2015 during last week’s FMOC meeting.

Yesterday Yellen backed up her previous comments whilst testifying before the House Financial Services Committee. She reiterated that a rate rise is a real possibility. If the Fed does rates it will be the first time in ...

5 Nov 2015, 2:19 p.m.
Duncan Richardson

Many investors believe the economy has turn downwards while others believe the world economy is already in the process of crashing. This may be alarming to many, but is there any evidence to support these claims?

Firstly and perhaps most importantly global debt has grown by £37 trillion to over $200 trillion since the crash of 2007. That’s a compound rate of over 5% per annum and well above the annual global growth rate. Emerging markets have borrowed in dollars and more than doubled their debt levels, whilst in the developed world debts have increased by a third. Total U.S. ...

4 Nov 2015, 3:52 p.m.
Duncan Richardson

Greece’s four largest banks need to raise £10 million pounds in reserves to ensure they can survive the next economic downturn.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have given Piraeus Bank, NBG, Eurobank and Alpha Bank until the end of the week to say how they will shore up their balance sheets. The capital could be raised from private investors or the banks could once again tap EU bailout funds.

The ECB stress test indicated the shortfall could range between 4.4 and 14.4 billion euros.

This is not the first time the Greek banks have been bailed out and probably won’t ...

3 Nov 2015, 12:20 p.m.
Duncan Richardson

The Fed is obsessed with market reactions to their policy announcements. So every time they want to change policy, they hint and prepare the market months before. The Fed prefer to call this process forward guidance and typically start prepping the market six months before they act.

With this in mind should we be paying attention to a number of fed officials who have already hinted that the Fed may take rates negative? After the Fed’s September meeting they first hinted that negative rates may be on the horizon. Then on the 9th of October, Bill Dudley, the Fed President, ...

3 Nov 2015, 12:18 p.m.
Adam Pike

Year to date a record 2,119 tonnes of gold has been withdrawn from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE). The SGE is a yuan denominated gold trading platform located in Shanghai’s free trade zone, making it open to international investors. Unlike the U.S. backed Comex all contracts are settled in physical gold.

Considering the total world mine production per annum is estimated to be 2,860 tonnes the amount being withdrawn from the SGE is considerable. China also imports gold via Hong Kong and no doubt has other avenues for importing gold.

The amount being withdrawn from the SGE is accelerating year ...

2 Nov 2015, 2:28 p.m.
Duncan Richardson

The gold price has fallen to its lowest level in four weeks as traders’ fear the Federal Reserve would like to raise rates before the end of 2015.

From a technical prospective the outlook for the gold price is deteriorating, with investors concerned the price could break below key resistance levels.  Increased physical demand has not halted the price declining. As prices decline retail demand for bars and coins tends to rise which eventually supports the price.

Investors also reduced their holding in the SPDR Gold Trust, world’s largest gold backed exchange traded fund.

Gold is currently trading at £735.11 ...

2 Nov 2015, 2:28 p.m.
Peter Walden