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Updated 14:34 08/05/21

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November Gold News 2016

UK banking giant HSBC is predicting the gold price will reach $1,550 per ounce by the end of 2017. Boosted by anti-EU sentiment, protectionist policies introduced by Donald Trump, and continued central bank buying. The HSBC research team are predicting the recent price decline to be only temporary as global risks rise in 2017.

James Butterfill, Head of Research at ETF Securities, is forecasting the gold price will rise to $1,400 per ounce by June next year. With anti-European sentiment on the rise and 70% of the continent having elections next year the risk of ...

30 Nov 2016, 10:54 a.m.
Duncan Richardson

Rumors are circulating that President elect Donald Trump is planning to appoint libertarian John Allison as Treasury Secretary.  The move will scare the hell out of the establishment and is not surprising when you consider that Trump has already questioned the future of the Federal Reserve’s political independence.

Allison wants to go one step further and abolish the Fed all together. The free market thinker would prefer to let the market regulate itself and suggested he is in favour of abolishing the practice of the government insuring customer depositors.

In 2012, Allison said, if he was in charge, he would get rid ...

29 Nov 2016, 11:09 a.m.
Duncan Richardson

Shares in Italian banks have continued to tumble ahead of Sunday's referendum. Markets are becoming increasingly worried that voters will reject Prime Minister Renzi’s constitutional reforms and force his resignation. The constitutional changes are designed to reduce the power of the senate and transfer power away from the regions.

Capital is already fleeing financial institutions, raising concerns over the solvency of the Italian banking sector. Shares in Italy’s largest lender Monte dei Passchi fell 12% before trading was suspended.

Anti-European feeling is on the rise and many believe that the Italians will vote ‘no’ solely to topple the pro-EU leader. ...

28 Nov 2016, 3:18 p.m.
Duncan Richardson

Following Donald's Trumps election victory bank shares around the globe have surged, with one exception Italian financial sector. In the last month alone the share price of Italy’s largest financial institution, Unicredit, has plummeted over 15%. The country’s second largest lender Intesa Sanpaolo has experienced a 10% fall in its market cap.

Italy’s problems don’t stop there, they are also facing a debt and political crisis which are all coming to a head at the same time.

The Italian economy has been in reverse ever since it joined the euro in 1999 and in real terms the size of the ...

25 Nov 2016, 10:07 a.m.
Adam Pike

Britain’s national debt stands at £1.7 trillion and grows at a rate of £5,170 per second, which is equivalent of burdening each taxpayer with a massive £49,215. Despite these horrific figures, Chancellor Philip Hammond plans to borrow even more money in a last-ditch attempt to stimulate the UK economy.

During his first Autumn statement Mr Hammond told parliament he would need to borrow an extra £122 bn. The concept of the UK economy balancing the books before 2020 appears farcical. The conservative government appears to be in tandem with Donald Trump who has promised to increase the governments national debt ...

24 Nov 2016, 11:47 a.m.
Duncan Richardson

A lucky Frenchman who inherited a large home from relative in Normandy discovered 100 kilograms of gold squirreled away in numerous hiding places throughout the dead man’s house. The hoard is worth $3.7 million and included two 12-kilogram gold bars, 37 one kilo bars and over 5,000 coins.

The stash only came to light when the new owner began to tidy the house. First, he found coins stuffed in a tin box, then came more hided in a whiskey bottle. The gold bars were found under furniture and even in the dead man’s bathroom. According to the serial numbers the ...

23 Nov 2016, 9:32 a.m.
Duncan Richardson

The gold price has retreated over 5% since Donald Trump’s surprise election victory and on Friday the price threatened to breakdown below $1,200 per ounce. News that the Russian Central bank had added a further 1.3 million ounces in October helped stabilize the price.

Continued central bank buying under $1,250 per once is supporting the price and offsetting pessimism in the futures market and liquidation of exchange traded funds (ETF). Last week ETF’s globally experienced outflows worth 19 tonnes.  A December rate hike now appears to be a done deal and already reflected in the gold price.

Donald Trump’s stimulus ...

22 Nov 2016, 10:08 a.m.
Duncan Richardson

Following Donald Trump’s stunning victory $1 trillion has been wiped off the value of the global bond market. The sell-off intensified on Monday following Trump’s pledge to increase spending on infrastructure in order to simulate the economy and bring jobs back to U.S. 

Managed money is fleeing government bonds with investment managers reinvesting the proceeds into equities which are expected to benefit from Trump's spending program. The U.S. government debt is already approaching $20 trillion and, should Trump turn on the spending taps, inflation is expected to rise pushing down the value of existing bonds. ...

17 Nov 2016, 11:02 a.m.
Duncan Richardson

Thousands of police have been deployed across India to ensure the safety of the country’s banks after the government decided to remove all 500 and 1000 rupee notes from circulation. The two notes account for 85% of all the money in circulation.

Angry queues formed outside banks as the public rushed to exchange their money before the December deadline. Several banks have run out of notes following the surprise decision by the Modi government to remove the notes from circulation. Apparently, the move is to reduce corruption and tax evasion. The government is replacing the old notes with ...

11 Nov 2016, 11:20 a.m.
Duncan Richardson

Following Donald Trump’s surprise election victory the gold price spiked over $60 per ounce before falling back. The gold price had surged over 5% to $1,337.40 per ounce as it became clear Donald Trump had beaten Hilary Clinton in the race for the presidency.

Japanese equity markets fell 5.4%, however, the expected equity selloff failed to materialize in Europe and North America. Instead traders took the opportunity to re-balance their portfolios with money shifting from bonds to equities. Worryingly for Trump, traders had little appetite for U.S debt as yields rose on yesterday's $23 bn treasury auction.

10 Nov 2016, 11:32 a.m.
Adam Pike

The thought of a Donald Trump victory might send shock waves through the equities markets, but fans of the yellow metal a Trump victory will provide a welcome boost to their portfolios.  That’s because most market analysts are predicting the gold price to soar by a $100 per ounce should Trump win the race to the White House.

Over the last week the gold price has been closely correlated to the fortunes of the two candidates.  When the FBI reopened their investigation into Clinton's emails the gold price rose as odds on a Trump presidency narrowed. The ...

8 Nov 2016, 11:47 a.m.
Duncan Richardson

The gold price is trading above $1,300 per ounce after an independent poll suggested Donald Trump is leading the presidential race.

Year-to-date the gold price denominated in U.S dollars has risen over 20%, driven primarily by increased investor demand for exchange traded funds and robust central bank buying.

In total central banks added a further 12 tonnes of gold in September, with Russia leading the way by adding a further 16.55 tonnes to their reserves. Russia’s closest neighbours, China and Kazakhstan, also took the opportunity to increase their official reserves. On the other end of the spectrum ...

4 Nov 2016, 12:08 p.m.
Adam Pike

The gold price has risen for five consecutive days as anxious traders increase their exposure to the yellow metal prior to next week’s U.S. election.

Wall Street's attention is fixed on the U.S. presidential race with the latest polls indicating the gap between Hilary Clinton and Donald Trump is narrowing. Trump is perceived as the riskier candidate and, should Trump prevail, many are forecasting a sharp increase in the gold price. Even the most conservative analysts are expecting the gold price to climb by at least 10% in the first 12 months of a Trump presidency. Historically, gold has performed well following ...

2 Nov 2016, 10:40 a.m.
Duncan Richardson

The Venezuelan economy is on the brink of collapse. Inflation is out of control, consumer confidence is non-existent and protesters rule the streets. Hyperinflation is taking hold as government officials refuse to publish official inflation data.

The nation’s currency the bolivar is so devalued even a simple purchase requires bundle of notes. To save time shop keepers are weighing notes instead of counting them. The country is weeks away from a full blown economic and social crisis. Prisoners in Venezuela’s jails are starving to death as food and medical supplies run out. 

In the absence of official inflation data economists ...

1 Nov 2016, 10:03 a.m.
Duncan Richardson