Analysts at Citigroup have warned that the next few months could be volatile for precious metal and foreign reserve markets, with several economic and geopolitical factors expected to have a large impact.
2016 has already been an interesting year for gold, with the precious metal currently up by 44% (£+318.506/ oz t) since January. However with the impending conclusion of the US presidential race, the addition of the Chinese RMB to the SDR, and the possibility of US interest rate hikes in December (however unlikely) Citigroup have upgraded their gold price forecasts for the end of the year.
The American bank see gold seeing out Q4 at $1320/ oz t but concede that, should Trump win the election, Q4 of 2016 could see gold at $1425 and $1450 in early 2017. Trump's repeated assertion that interest rates are being kept artificially low by the Fed for political reasons betrays his desire to raise rates if he gains power. However there is little to indicate the US economy is prepared for such a change. The last interest rate hike turned out to be a trigger for 2016's gold bull market and we are being warned that a repeat could be on the cards.