How a Geert Wilders victory in Dutch elections could cause the EU to IMPLODE
Daryl Jackson, News Editor
7 Feb 2017, 11:40 a.m.
THE European Union (EU) could face a bitter end over the next few months if Party for Freedom (PVV) leader Geert Wilders wins the Dutch election.
Mr Wilders would be likely to take the country out of the bloc, Marine Le Pen the Front National leader would be likely to follow suit, leaving Germany faced with the prospect of funding the cash hole.
The PVV leader has been placed first in the polls with 31 per cent of the vote, a month before the Dutch elections.
If Mr Wilders does pull off a shock win, it could pave the way for the far right leader, Marine Le Pen to come to victory in France in May.
This would leave Angela Merkel’s country as the only substantial economy left standing in the crumbling bloc, leaving the Chancellor to fund the giant £35billion-a-year cash hole of three countries with stable economies leaving the European Union.
Annually, France pays the EU £16.4 billion, The Netherlands £5 billion and the UK £16 billion
Economists also believe that if France and the Netherlands were to leave the bloc, then the other countries would be left questioning themselves why they are still members and bring the whole EU tumbling down.
Director General at Institute of Economic Affairs, Mark Littlewood, said: “The pinch on Germany would get greater.
“I think that the EU could survive just about with Britain leaving, but a Dutch departure would be a killer blow as they were part of the original six.
“It would lose its credibility and begin to unravel and would send greater shock waves politically.”
He added: “Theoretically the Germans could afford it.
“It would depend on the patience of the German electorate, there is political evidence that the patience is wearing thin."
Chancellor Merkel's popularity has plummeted as the support for the anti EU party, Alternative for Germany, is riding high in the polls.
Le Pen could follow suit if Wilders win and be triumphant in May
France and the Netherlands were two of the six founding members of the EU, along with Belgium, Germany, Luxembourg and Italy.
The economist said that if a country like the Netherlands left, it would have more chance of creating a domino effect on other countries than Brexit would have, as it has been part of the project since the beginning.
He said: “You could say that the UK was not committed to the project.
“But, with Netherlands and France, it will start to put into question whether the EU will have to completely alter in its present state.”
In January, at a meeting of far-right leaders in Koblenz, Germany, Mr Wilders said: “Yesterday a new America, today Koblenz and tomorrow a new Europe.”
Far-right leaders are putting the future of the EU on the line Mr Wilders’ promises include imposing border controls, stopping Islamic Sharia law and sending home migrants who reject Dutch values or commit crimes.
Neil MacKinnon, from Economists for Brexit, said: “Germany would struggle, the question is whether the taxpayer would take on an open ended cheque.
“Germany does not want to bail the rest of the EU out. There are economic problems in the EU, debt in Italy, whether they are willing to pay is a massive issue.
“The EU’s shelf life is diminishing by the day.
“When you have just a few countries footing the bill, there would be voter resistance, there would be a push back against it.”
Mr Mackinnon thinks that this “black hole” in EU funding is a big issue in Brussels, especially for Germany in their election year.”
He said that once the Netherlands and France leave, the big question for the remaining countries will be, “why should we stay in the EU now?”
He added: “If Germany had to pay an open-ended cheque to the EU, there could be a voter revolt, it could be a case of ‘can’t pay, won’t pay’.”
Mr Mackinnon believes that the EU was an “economic project doomed to failure” and voters are pushing back in support of countries leaving.