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US Election 2020: Bookmakers keep Biden as Presidential favourite


Liam Sheasby, News Editor
2 Nov 2020, 6 p.m.

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With one day to go until polling stations open for the US election, bookmakers are keeping with Joe Biden to be elected the next President of the United States. The average odds for Biden are 8/15, compared to 28/15 for Donald Trump – aggregated from a range of bookmakers including Bet365, Sky, 888, William Hill, Betfair, and Paddy Power.

The gold price is down 0.44% in the last week; an $8.40 loss bringing gold to $1,894.70 per ounce. As BullionByPost, MoneyWeek, and others have said over the past month, a lot of this is down to anticipation of tomorrow night's results. There has been no further stimulus package from the US government, with President Trump holding off until the election has been decided, and there are also concerns about the result being disputed – ala 2000 or worse – should the election be a close call.
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Forecasting from FIVETHIRTYEIGHT, which puts Biden into the White House in 90/100 scenarios
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Should the US election turn nasty then we can expect the gold price to rise as it has with other conflicts and civil disputes around the world, but even if the election goes smoothly there's still the issue of the stimulus package. Investors want to know if there's going to be further money printing and further government debt taken on before deciding whether to put their money into stocks, gold, or other assets.

As the World Gold Council states in a recent news article on the US election, the stakes are high but the economic outlook is still bad regardless of who wins and as such should support gold. If Trump wins there's the potential for further trade tensions around the world, as well as continued advocacy of an arguably over-inflated stock market. This benefits gold as a hedge (diversification) option to invest in alongside shares. Alternatively, a Biden win is believed to predicate tax increases and a massive public spending plan – perhaps even the Green New Deal proposed by Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. This means more debt held by the US government and concern over this debt would likely keep the dollar down, raising the gold price in the process. In either scenario, there's risk and low interest rates. Both are good for a gold bull run.
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The gold price chart in US Dollars for the past week.

The Guardian reported that Wall Street opened up higher this afternoon on what is the final day of market trading before polling. Despite the last week of October being the worst since March, the Dow is up 1.2%, as is the S&P 500. The Nasdaq was slightly behind at 1%.

Due to fears of mass queueing in the midst of a pandemic, many Americans have voted in advance by mail ballots, so there's no guarantee that the election will be done and dusted by Wednesday morning GMT. President Trump has argued that no votes should be counted after tomorrow (despite this being the case with most large elections around the world). Key states to watch out for will be Florida and Ohio, but also the 'Rust Belt' of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania – formerly Obama states that turned to Trump and may turn back to Biden.

Tomorrow's election coverage in the UK will begin around 11pm at night, with special coverage from the States running overnight before merging back into morning news broadcasts.

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