Gold has climbed back above $2,000 per ounce to hit a six-month high today of $2,028. Silver has also jumped to a near three-month high of $24.89.
Despite a lack of any major news to influence the price of gold and silver, a weaker US dollar and positive chart trends have helped keep both precious metals rising. A lack of escalation in the Middle East had seen gold fall as low as $1,932 just over two weeks ago, but gold has managed to push higher. $2,000 proved a continual barrier at the start of the Israel conflict but has now been soundly beaten.
As mentioned above, a weaker dollar has been one of the big drivers for gold and silver. The US Dollar Index is now down 3.27% in the past month as markets continue to bet that the Federal Reserve is done hiking interest rates. US inflation has fallen closer to the Fed’s 2% target, and the prospect of no more hikes has already seen the dollar fall. Rate cuts will spark the real dollar sell-off but the timeline for cuts remains much more unclear.
For gold, today’s rise to $2,028 represents an increase of 4.8% in just over two weeks and leaves it less than $70 short of the US intra-day high. Central bank buying remains strong and is almost certainly helping to support the metal. 2022 was already a record year for gold buying, and as of Q3 2023 central banks are 14% ahead of that year so far.
Silver has also benefited from the weaker dollar, and since falling to $21.89 two weeks ago is now up more than 13%. Silver often sees some seasonal strength at this time of year, while supply from Central and South America has also been impacted by industrial action and permit troubles. This region accounts for many millions of troy ounces of silver each year, and falling supply comes at a time when demand continues to rise in the pursuit of alternative energy production like solar.
Despite November drawing to a close, a new dollar record in 2023 is still well within reach. Gold has twice made considerable gains quickly this year, in March during the banking crisis, and again last month at the outbreak of the conflict in Israel and Gaza. While the economic outlook is far from positive, gold would still usually be struggling under high interest rates, but central banks and investors have kept on buying. With gold already above $2,000, if (or more likely when) a downturn truly begins the metal is well poised to push to new all-time highs, and Christmas 2023 could see gold closing in on $2,100 for the first time.