Safe haven buying on fears over the escalating conflict in the Middle East have pushed gold and silver prices up once more and combined with renewed speculation on interest rates to give precious metals a strong recovery after last week’s sharp dip.
Having fallen as low as $2,353.74 per ounce last Thursday, gold has climbed as high as $2,458.91 this morning, and is currently trading at around $2,435. Silver prices fell as low as $27.35 last week but is now challenging $29 and is up more than 3% for the week.
Two senior military leaders, from the Iran-backed Hamas and Hezbollah, have been killed with Israel claiming one of the kills, and suspected of the other. With Iran vowing revenge for the killings, escalation in the Middle East seems increasingly likely. Coupled with protests in Venezuela over disputed election results, and the world continues to see increased levels of geopolitical volatility that are driving uncertainty.
Away from geopolitics, the Federal Reserve also released the latest US interest rate decision yesterday. As expected, there was no change made to US rates, but their next meeting in September is currently given a 100% chance of a cut via the CME FedWatch tool. Some of the dollar weakness may already be priced-in, but if the Fed do cut in September there will likely be further gains for gold and silver.
The Bank of England will also be announcing their latest decision for UK interest rates this afternoon. Markets are split on whether the BoE will cut today (ahead of the Fed), but the pound has already seen some weakness this morning in anticipation of the decision. If the BoE do cut, then gold in GBP would likely see some further support, helping to push it towards the current GBP record.
Precious metal prices are experiencing plenty of volatility from day-to-day lately as global news provides further shocks and uncertainty, but the general trend remains positive, with gold up more than 17% in 2024, and silver up 22%. Demand remains high, and forecasts suggest further records to come before the end of the year given the current outlook.
