After posting solid gains on Thursday and Friday, gold has pulled back once more as the US clarified that gold bars are not subject to tariffs.

Having raised fears of a major change to the global gold market, there was relief late on Friday when the White House stated that the reports of gold bar tariffs was ‘misinformation’ and 1kg and 100oz gold bars were not subject to tariffs. The spokesperson said that an official clarification will be made in the near future.

Gold held onto most of the week’s gains into the weekend close, with spot price trading at $3,400 per ounce. As markets opened however the price has fallen 1%, and is back below $3,400, trading at a low of $3,360.79 this morning. In GBP, gold dropped 1.27% from £2,532 over the weekend, to around £2,500. In Euros, gold fell 1.22% from €2,923 to as low as €2,882.

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It appears that an incorrect customs code my have been applied to the gold bars, one that would be subject to tariffs rather than the correct exempt code. As we reported on Friday, such an error was possible. Given the significant changes to US imports in the past few months it is perhaps not surprising that both exporters and US customs itself are finding it difficult to navigate the new tariff system.

Reuters reported that at least one major Swiss refiner had halted any shipments of the gold bars to the US, ahead of the potential 39% tariff charge Swiss imports would be subject to. There will be a sigh of relief in Switzerland when the official clarification by the White House is released and refiners can begin shipping bars as normal.

Having hit a new all-time high around $3,534 on Thursday, December gold futures have also pulled back to $3,419 at the time of writing. While this is still at a premium over current spot prices, it brings futures back to a more natural trading level compared to the $100 premium seen last week, and suggests markets are returning to normal.

This week sees key data releases however in the form of US CPI on Tuesday, and US PPI on Thursday. Signs of rising inflation could pare back expectations on a September rate cut (still currently showing 88.4% odds of a cut on the CME FedWatch tool), while lower inflation could increase these odds and see some USD weakness.

There is some hope of progress for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, with President Trump and Putin potentially meeting, but it is unclear whether President Zelensky will be invited and whether Ukraine will accept the terms Russia suggests.

It has been a volatile month for gold spot price, with a high of $3,439.85 and a low of $3,269.24. Each week seems to bring fresh uncertainty however which continues to support gold in the long term. Having started the year at $2,600 per ounce, it is holding up very well at historically high levels.