Gold and silver prices are steady as markets wait for the next major driver to push prices higher or lower.
For gold this represents a continuation of the recent period of consolidation the metal has been undergoing since setting new all-time highs in April and continues to trade between $3,300 and $3,400 from week to week.
The main data point for gold this week came from the latest US CPI inflation figures. At 2.4% for the year, US inflation was slightly below market expectations, and suggested that the impact of tariffs don’t appear to have fed into US prices as yet. Given stockpiling ahead of the introduction of tariffs however, this may be a temporary reprieve, and inflation could rise in the coming months. For now however, the lower inflation figures saw the US dollar index slightly down, helping bump gold towards the upper levels of its recent trading range at $3,359.62.
Gold is now the second largest reserve asset after the USD, based on a recent report from the ECB. Central bank demand hit record levels in 2024, and 2025 continues to look strong for national reserve purchases helping to support the gold price.
Following silver’s 10% jump in price last week the metal has seen some volatility, and expected selling pressure. At the time of writing, silver has pulled back below $36, and holding $35 will be considered key in maintaining the recent break out. Optimism remains in the market however after silver breached $35 for only the third time in history, and analysts at TD Securities believe silver could hit $40 before the end of this year.
This forecast is based on silver’s ongoing supply deficit, and the disparity in physical supply between London and New York. Like gold earlier this year, physical silver was shipped from London to the US ahead of potential tariffs, and leaves the London side of the market incredibly tight. TD Securities believe this could result in a number of ‘mini-squeezes’ as the London market fails to meet demand, and will see silver climb towards $40 over the coming months.
Silver will need to maintain support above $35 however in the short-term to convince markets this a true break out.
The US have also removed non-essential” diplomatic staff and their families from various embassies across the Middle East as tensions between Israel and Iran rise once more. Efforts to reach a nuclear deal with Iran appear to have faltered, and there are fears of further military action in the region.
Markets are hopeful that trade deals will continue to emerge and see tariffs reduced/removed, with the US and China reaffirming their truce this week. Detail remains thin on the ground however, and in the case of silver reduced tariffs would still be considered positive due to the increase to industrial output, which would suit silver’s electronic demand.
All combined, market uncertainty remains high, driving further safe haven demand for gold and silver.
