Gold spot price pushed firmly above $3,600 per ounce for the first time this week, amid a perfect storm of economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

Gold hit a peak of $3,683.14 on Tuesday, and is currently holding above $3,600 despite some inevitable selling pressure. Gold also set new highs in other major currencies, including GBP (£2,711.14) and EURO (€3,129.18). This week’s rally leaves gold up 38% so far in 2025 with further gains possible.

110925 USD Chart

Silver has been trading in a fairly tight range around $40 - $41 in September, and hasn’t matched the same level of gains as gold this week, but is consolidating well at these multi-year highs.

Next week’s Federal Reserve committee meeting will be one of the major events for gold in the short-term. Markets still show a 100% chance of rates being cut according to the CME FedWatch tool, with an 8% chance currently for a larger 50 basis point cut. The Fed remain under pressure from the White House to cut rates quicker, and a 50bp cut or hints that this is the beginning of a new cutting cycle, could prompt some additional dollar weakness and boost gold and silver further.

France is faced with a fifth Prime Minister in just 21 months after PM Bayrou lost a no-confidence vote on Monday. The collapse of the French government comes as the country grapples with trillions of euros of debt, and French bond yields have climbed above those of Italy for the time in Eurozone history. If France falls into a debt crisis it could have a widespread impact across the EU, only a few weeks after global bond yields spiked.

Geopolitical uncertainty also remains high. In Europe, Poland reported shooting down 4 of 19 Russian drones that passed into it’s airspace during an attack on Ukraine. Whether a mistake or not, the breach of Poland’s territory marks a concerning step in the long-running conflict, and one of the first times a NATO country has been directly involved. PM Donald Tusk stated that the event "brings us the closest we have been to open conflict since World War Two".

Tensions in the Middle East also remain elevated after Israel launched an attack against Hamas in Qatar, angering US President Donald Trump, and damaging negotiating efforts to bring the war in Gaza to an end.

With uncertainty so high, there is plenty of support for gold and silver from a safe haven perspective, and recent forecasts of $3,700 from Standard Chartered in Q4 certainly seem plausible. Markets may settle as next week’s rate cut approaches, with volatility soon after as they react to the Fed’s decision.