Gold Price Forecast 2021

With 2020 halfway done, it has already proven to be a record-breaking year for gold; a year that will unfortunately go down in global history due to the outbreak of the coronavirus. Below is our analysis and forecast for the gold price in 2021.

The speed with which coronavirus has changed the outlook for the global economy is proof of just how difficult gold price forecasting truly can be. With the pandemic far from over, and a viable vaccine not expected until 2021, the virus will likely continue to have an immediate impact on the global economy for some time - and the damage it causes could take years to recover from.

As such, we will monitor and update the forecast throughout the remainder of this year and into next year, reacting to any new developments accordingly.

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2020 has already seen the gold price set records in many major currencies including Pound Sterling and the Euro. As detailed in our 2020 gold price forecast, gold is expected to make further gains throughout 2020; surpassing the current Dollar record of $1,896.50 and potentially reaching $2,000 before the end of the year.

Update 21/01/21: As forecast, 2020 proved a record-breaking year for the gold price, setting a new all-time high of $2,089 per ounce in August. Despite pulling back slightly as vaccine optimism increased hope of the end of the pandemic, gold ended 2020 up by 20%.

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Coronavirus

Unsurprisingly, coronavirus and its resulting economic obstruction will be the key driver behind for the gold price in 2021. Even as of July 2020, the lockdowns of Q2 2020 are expected to have plunged the global economy into the worst recession since the Second World War; a recession that could potentially even turn into a depression such is the size of the GDP decrease.

Many investors have already turned to gold to protect their wealth against the record low interest rates adopted by banks, and the expected inflation to come. Even with a recovery and the “new normal”, the massive amounts of government borrowing and new Quantitative Easing programs will see gold remain a popular choice for diversification within any portfolio and thus keep prices high.

With cases continuing to rise in the Americas, north and south, as well as fears of a second wave for Europe growing, there could be even more economic damage to come - especially as summer ends and the colder winter months see the virus’ preferred conditions return, along with other winter illnesses like flu.

Update 15/12/20 – Fears over growing cases of Covid-19 have unfortunately proven true, and many countries have been forced to bring in further restrictions and lockdowns in response. Vaccines have begun to be approved and rolled out in countries like the UK and US, and have brought some hopes that 2021 will see further recovery as restrictions ease.

How quickly mass vaccination can be completed however, and how effective vaccines will be in the long-term remains unknown. Until sufficient immunisation can take place and restrictions remain, economic damage is expected to continue, with low or falling GDP growth, rising unemployment, and increasing government debt.

Update 21/01/21: Vaccine rollouts in the UK have so far proved relatively successful, but are proving to be far more challenging for both the EU and US. Cases have continued to surge worldwide, with deaths so far only rising. While there are hopes that the UK will be able to ease restrictions in the summer, there is still uncertainty over how far restrictions can be eased while the majority of the population remains at risk of the virus, and that restrictions may be in place worldwide for much of 2021 still, hampering any economic recovery.

Trade War/US

While coronavirus has dominated headlines, the US-China trade war (which was a key growth driver for gold in 2019) has not gone away. If anything, the outbreak of the coronavirus has further strained relations between China and the USA, with blame being laid squarely upon China by President Trump.

Sanctions on Chinese-owned companies like Huawei, and domestic turmoil in Hong Kong, are just two other issues which have caused further diplomatic tension with China, and each one makes a conclusion to the trade war more unlikely: this at a time when the global economy needs as much help as it can get. Easing of restrictions between the two would help improve trade, but further sanctions brought in will further damage the global economy.

Update 15/12/20 – Following the certification of the election results, the US looks set to have a new President in 2021. Joe Biden is expected to ease some of the tensions between the US and China, but has so far suggested he will keep tariffs in the near future to continue applying pressure to China.

The confirmation of Biden also raises the prospect of increased public spending, and further quantitative easing that will support gold in the year ahead as the Democrat President takes a more hands-on approach in dealing with coronavirus in the US.

Update 21/01/21: Following the inauguration of Joe Biden, the 46th President was quick to override a number of key Trump policies. Trade War tariffs remained in place for now however, and could suggest that the new President will not end the US-China trade war quickly.

The new Democrat President is also raising hopes of significant further fiscal stimulus and public spending. This has for now increased risk-appetite and pushed stock markets to new all-time highs, but will also raise the chances of inflation in the months and years ahead, which will be a key driver for gold going forward.

Brexit

For the UK, Brexit remains a unique threat to our economy and the strength of the Pound going forward. Progress in crucial final talks has been slow, and with mixed results. The government has remained firm in its promise not to extend the current 2020 deadline for Brexit, despite the disruption and challenges caused by the coronavirus. As such, the risk of no-deal remains for the UK in five months’ time and could see the economy further weakened by such a move, on top of the historic recession it already faces due to the pandemic. If the Pound were to tumble towards parity with the Dollar, gold would see further specifically domestic growth in value.

Update 15/12/20 – Brexit deadlines have repeatedly passed without result, and just two weeks from the legal end of the transition period a deal has still not been reached. The pound has been volatile as markets react to time running out and meetings between UK and EU leaders to try and agree a deal.

Brexit continues to weigh on the UK economy, and the uncertainty has brought further warnings and criticism from businesses who are unsure how they will be impacted in potentially just a couple of weeks. A no-deal Brexit is currently the most likely outcome according to Downing Street, and could see the Pound fall considerably as the new year begins if confirmed.

Update 21/01/21: A final hour Brexit deal has avoided the worst-case scenario many had feared, and helped propel the Pound to a new 32-month high against the Dollar. Early signs suggest that the deal is causing some disruption however, and that even with a Brexit deal in place, the increased costs for businesses may come with price rises for some goods, causing further potential inflation in the months ahead.
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Gold Price 2021

With the gold price already expected to pass the all time Dollar high this year, 2021 is forecast to have further gains and see new records set.

Many analysts believe gold will continue to rise and reach as high as $3,000 per troy ounce by the end of 2021. If gold matches the gains it made during the financial crisis in 2008 then this figure is certainly within reach, and the stage looks set for a gold bull run unseen in a decade.

Update 15/12/20 – Vaccine optimism and stock market highs have seen the gold price drop from the highs seen earlier in the year. Continuing economic damage however, and the measures necessary to combat it, are expected to continue supporting gold in 2021.

Goldman Sachs sees gold rising back above $2,000 per ounce in 2021, with a potential to hit a new record of $2,300 based on current conditions. Capital Economics however believes that current pressures will remain in 2021 as the service industry begins to open back up, with the gold price remaining around the $1,900 mark for the next year.

Both Citibank, and Australia’s ANZ agree at a target of between $2,300 and $2,400 per ounce towards the latter half of 2021, with inflation and stalling recovery supporting gold prices.

Update 21/01/21: Forecasts have now largely split into two main schools of thought; that prices will remain around current levels, or that prices will experience another 20% rise over the course of the year.

Three institutions that are more conservative about the gold price are Capital.com, RBC Capital Markets, and the Bank of America. These believe the gold will continue to trade at around $1,800 - $2,000 per ounce, with fiscal stimulus and economic recovery spurring investors towards more risky assets like stocks.

More experts and organisations favour $2,300 per ounce though, and potentially higher prices. Metals Focus, GoldmanSachs, Citibank, Commerzbank, and Zero Hedge all point to another year of consistent gains for gold. These analysts believe that economic recovery and stimulus will lead to increasing inflation in 2021, and will push gold up to a new all-time Dollar high of around $2,300 per ounce.

2020 proved to be a year of unprecedented uncertainty, and 2021 still has further unknowns to come that could provide support for gold prices. After breaking the price record in August, forecasts suggest that 2021 could see further gold price records.