Gold Price Forecasts
Although we'd love to be able to,
we can't read the future. To compensate, we've put together the opinions of industry experts and journalists alike to give you their gold price predictions for the coming year...
Outlook for 2018:
The January boost in stock value has surprised and impressed experts all over the world as the markets reach record levels. The S&P500 Index is up to 2,747 points and the FTSE 100 is sitting at around 7,724 points, with Goldman Sachs reporting that the world economy is outperforming predictions for the first time since 2010 at a 4% growth rate.
The Daily Telegraph offers a positive outlook for investors:
most years with a global stock price rise in January see prices continue
throughout the whole year. Business Insider reports similar opinions about the US stock market, with experts from UBS, HSBC, Merrill Lynch, and JPMorgan all agreeing that stocks should rise at least another 100 points, if not by several hundred more.
The boom for stocks is good for the world economy but traditionally bad for gold. When stock markets do well the need for gold drops off and sales usually follow, but a Reuters article from November 2017 pointed out that as stock prices rose last year the demand for gold remained; acting as protection against exposure to avoid another 2008 style market crash.
Stocks might not be knocking the value of gold down, but increased currency strength could. The US dollar has been fluctuating in value for the past year but is now steadily rising in value – a worry for the price of gold. There are fears that the Federal Reserve could increase interest rates in 2018 to bolster the increased value of the dollar, which would hurt gold prices.
Fortunately for gold
the US dollar is not stable. In 2017 the dollar’s value moved up and down based on President Trump’s proposed infrastructure plans and tax reforms, and Russia and China are both stockpiling gold ahead of a move away from the US dollar as the reserve currency. In 2018 the US government sees a fresh round of elections for the House of Representatives; elections that usually see the opposition party take control of the house. Control here for the Democrats would stall the President’s proposals, but there are fears that the US may also enter a trade war with China and impose tariffs due to the Chinese state’s
of the steel industry. Either of these issues would hurt the US dollar and drive its value back down.
President Trump is at risk in both the House of Representatives and with trade disputes in 2018
it’s a different story. The Bank of England has already raised interest rates in the UK and the effects were positive on the value of the currency, but this minor improvement has done little to reassure financial experts from the likes of Morgan Stanley, Commerzbank, Investec and Deutsche Bank, all of whom suggest that Sterling’s value will stay uninspiring for the foreseeable future.
A significant driving factor for increased gold prices in 2017 was the nuclear missile tests carried out by North Korea. Every test saw a corresponding rise in gold prices and despite a new-found willingness to enter talks with South Korea, there seems no end
for this missile program.
The additional driving factor for 2018 will be income growth. The world economy is growing. India has recovered from the government’s radical
program late 2016 and has renewed its interest in gold as a commodity. China too has shown renewed interest in gold bullion, while Germany and the USA are both reporting continued reductions in the unemployment rates, which in turn are boosting economic output and the ability to invest in precious metals.
The stock markets are doing well, gold hasn’t suffered at its expense, Dollar and Sterling values are uncertain, and international disputes are in full swing. The stage is set for gold prices to rise strongly in 2018.
After an incredible year for gold in 2016, we take a look at
predictions for 2017
price forecast for 2017
is a mixed bag. With many of the conditions that aided last year’s
force, there is a general, if
bull market is
However, many believe that the increase could be limited by increased interest rates in the US, with as many
hikes expected in 2017
after the release of positive economic data boosted confidence in the strength of the US economy.
to trade at an average of $1,245 per ounce and $1,303 in 2018, with 3 rate hikes priced into a low of $1,200 and an annual high of $1,300.
Abhinandan Agarwal has also claimed that the proposed increases to US interest rate hikes could be a considerable negative catalyst for gold in the coming year, with the extra incentive to save likely to curtail some of last year’s demand for gold.
he also believes that the scale of this
be offset by some of US President Donald Trump’s
Protectionist policies such as trade barriers and border adjustment tax could prove to be detrimental
HSBC’s James Steel appears to agree with this point of
claiming that in the long term
bull market is still very much
He claims that despite fear over the fiscal cliff, Chinese economic slowdown and economic catastrophe in Greece apparently subsiding,
outlook for gold is
Steel pointed to the fact that on the COMEX,
over the last 12 years, on no single week have the net longs, mainly made up of hedge funds, been
even if the extent of some longs have been reduced. He affirms that despite a potentially
pace in the coming year, the longevity of this bull market should not be questioned.
rates are likely to
contribute to this. Should the CPI continue to outpace interest rates hikes, savers will surely look to alternative investments in a world of negative real interest rates. When putting money in the bank becomes an expense, solid assets such as gold become more attractive.
Joni Teves of UBS supported this in an LBMA report, predicting an 8% rise in the gold price in the coming
He listed stagnant interest rates amongst a list of reasons, including elevated macro risks and a belief that the dollar has peaked, behind his forecast of an average gold price of $1350/ oz t in 2017.
This view is not shared unanimously amongst the other contributors to the LBMA
who have predicted on average a 0.5% drop in the gold price. Reasons for lowered expectations included positive economic data in the US, notably the unemployment rate, which dipped in January. Improved jobs data presented a catalyst for March’s rate hike, which could prove to be negative for gold. With up to three more proposed for 2017, a higher incentive to save rather than invest in
assets could lower demand for gold.
However, much of this depends on the pace and scale of these interest rate hikes, and the dovish tone of the Fed in this month’s meeting indicated that further interest rate hikes are not as certain as first believed.
Rising inflation is also a potential concern.
Should the pace of inflation get out of hand, then investors will flock to gold as a means of maintaining the value of their
Furthermore, conditions in
Europe are well suited to another gold
Last year’s steep increase in the gold price was in no small part aided by the reaction to Britain’s decision to quit the European Union. With populist
rising around the globe,
key elections to take place within Europe in
further victories for Eurosceptic parties could lead to more withdrawals from the European Union.
Such an event would almost certainly spell the end of the euro and such a monumental currency collapse would almost certainly see huge inflows into safe-havens such as
Opinion within the industry appears divided as to what the gold price is going to do in the coming twelve
The new year has so far seen a general upturn in the price of gold, with the precious metal’s
value increasing by more than £50 in the last month to around £775 per troy
In the context of an overall drop since September 2011, it is uncertain whether this recent change is indeed the beginning of a bullish gold market, or merely a short-lived moment, with the bottom yet to have been reached. However,
given the ongoing difficulties being faced in the global economy, there remains plenty of reason to believe that prices could continue the upward
we have witnessed so far in 2016.
UBS have predicted an average price of $1,250 for the
a solid improvement on 2015.
from the mining industry would appear to support such a
Kelvin Dushnisky, president of the world’s largest gold miner Barrick Gold, has claimed that the gold mining industry has reached peak output, an event that should prove ‘bullish for the medium and
outlook’. He told the FT that: ‘
falling grades and production levels, a lack of new discoveries, and extended project development timelines are bullish for the medium and long-term gold price outlook
combined with wider market turmoil, could see prices shoot up as demand increases given gold’s historic appeal as a ‘safe-haven’ during uncertain economic
Major stock exchanges such as the FTSE, Dow Jones, CAC 40, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange all experienced negative years in 2015 and such a trend looks set to continue in the coming months. A
60% jump in the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index over the last three months demonstrates an extreme lack of confidence in the stock
could strongly influence demand
Such a view is shared by
DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeff
who believes that gold could rise by as much as 30% to around $1,400/
He stresses gold’s popularity as a diversifier as the reason for its growth amidst a troubled global political and economic environment. He lists the
the prospects for a ‘full-on bear’ USA market
stocks down 20% from their
and the poor performance of other commodities and emerging markets as justification for a largely pessimistic economic outlook for 2016.
As ever, such troubled times should generate
that the gold price will increase over the coming year, as investors seek to diversify their portfolios by adding a commodity with a proven ability to hold its
Indeed, this is evident from gold’s performance in overall largely bearish commodity market, in which its price has remained remarkably high in comparison with other commodities, ‘relative to Goldman Sachs Spot Commodity Index (GNX)
the gold price is at an all-time high and about 30% higher than it was at its 2011 peak.
Gold’s defiant performance in an otherwise bearish commodity market indicates that it is the safest place to invest at the moment, and demand could be set to increase over the coming