Gold Price Forecast 2025

With July well underway, investors’ minds are now turning to the year ahead and considering what 2025 will hold for the gold price. 2024 has already been a record-breaking year, with further highs expected to come before we even reach 2025. Many of the forecasts for 2024 have already been surpassed, leaving analysts re-evaluating what’s to come for their 2025 gold price predictions.

US interest rates and the dollar, a US presidential election, ongoing conflict in Ukraine and Israel, central bank buying and higher consumer demand in China will all have a part to play in affecting the gold price in 2025.

Below we will discuss each of these elements in further detail and discuss the potential impact they could have on the 2025 gold price. As always, we must stress a forecast is just that, and no one knows what will happen to the gold price in the future as the past few years have proven. We will of course update this forecast should any significant event result in any major revisions to the forecasts for 2025.

Gold Price 2025

The gold price in 2025 will inherit many of the drivers seen in recent years, but with the price rising unexpectedly in 2024, there are new factors to consider as well, particularly from Asia. The strength of the dollar, inflation and interest rates, combined with the US election will make America a particularly big driver for the gold price in 2025. The importance of the global economy and geopolitics hasn’t gone away however, so international drivers will also have the potential for some big gains for gold in 2025.

US dollar, inflation, and rates

The strength of the US dollar is of course key to the gold price in 2025. Persistent inflation has seen expectations over the first interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve pushed back to September 2024, with a second cut also expected in 2024. If this does occur it will result in the dollar weakening, helping to push the gold price higher heading into 2025.

Inflation has been heading towards the Fed’s target, but higher wages and service inflation, and ongoing uncertainty over energy supplies and shipping in the Red Sea are expected to make inflation difficult to fully stamp out.

If inflation continues to fall, or the US economy shows signs of weakening (GDP falling or unemployment rising) then the Fed could continue to cut rates into 2025. This would further weaken the dollar and drive gold higher. If inflation proves difficult to bring to the Fed’s 2% target and the US economy remains resilient then they could keep rate cuts to a minimum, or even have to raise them slightly should inflation climb higher. This would strengthen the dollar and be seen as negative for gold.

US election

One of the major political events of 2024 that will have significant implications for America, the US dollar, and the wider world in 2025 will be the US election.

With Joe Biden standing down in July, the election has been thrown into uncertainty. Kamala Harris is currently expected to win the Democrat nomination but has struggled to win over voters in opinion polls during her time as Vice-President. Whoever does stand for the Democrat’s will face a campaign of just a few months.

A failed assassination attempt on Republican nominee Donald Trump in July has pushed him further ahead in the polls, and he currently looks to be the favourite to return the White House in January 2025.

A win for Donald Trump is considered positive for gold, with a more America-first focus and economic uncertainty. The trade war with China was a key economic feature during Trump’s first term, and four years on, relationships between China and the US have hardly improved. With demand in China (to be discussed below) becoming a key driver in 2024, gold’s fortunes have shifted away from the West, but the US election still has the potential to be a big driver for gold in 2025.

Geopolitics and conflict

Geopolitics and conflict remain a more uncertain driver for gold but offer plenty of potential to see the price rise. War in Ukraine, and the conflict in Gaza both have risks of further escalation that has so far been avoided.

There is uncertainty over US policy for Ukraine should Donald Trump win the presidency, with both he and his Vice-President pick previously suggesting the US could take a step back in their support of Ukraine against Russia, which could cause a significant change to the conflict should that occur. Ukraine also continues to seek membership to NATO, though this is not expected to be completed while the war with Russia is ongoing.

The conflict in Gaza has already sparked further escalation across the Middle East, with Iran and Israel trading missile strikes in April 2024. Escalation remains a big concern in the area, and could also impact the global economy, having a knock-on effect with shipping and oil supply, keeping inflation high and limiting potential rate cuts from the Fed.

Central bank buying

Central bank buying has been very supportive for the gold price in recent years, and 2025 looks to be no different. China have paused purchases after a long buying spree, but should they resume, this would be very positive for gold.

Plenty of other central banks have stepped in though, even while China pauses, and a survey released by the World Gold Council in June showed that 81% of respondents expected gold reserves to increase across the next 12 months.

Demand in Asia

Alongside central bank buying from China, 2024 also saw a rise in gold demand from retail investors in Asia that resulted in significant gains for gold in the first half of the year. With a struggling economy and property market, heavy restrictions on investments like cryptos, and copying their central bank, Chinese investors turned to gold as a way to invest their money. Both physical products, and paper gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, saw large influxes and gold trading at a steep premium compared to the west.

Given this demand for gold saw the price rise more than 20% in the first half of 2024 to hit new all-time highs, it is therefore another key driver to consider for the gold price in 2025.

Gold Price Prediction 2025

Having set new all-time highs in 2024, it is no surprise that the gold price predictions for 2025 include some new records. Predictions for the gold price in 2025 fall into two main camps; those who believe rates will only come down slowly and the high price will keep demand to a minimum, and those who believe that rates being cut will help spur gold to new highs.

Below is a list of some of the gold price predictions for 2025 from various analysts.

ANZ Research - $2,593

Citigroup- $3,000

HSBC - $2,075

ING - $2,300

JP Morgan - $2,600

Trading Economics - $2,424.29

HSBC have a surprisingly low prediction around $2,075 which would require quite a considerable pull back from the levels seen in recent months which gold appears to be finding good support at.

ANZ Research, JP Morgan and Citigroup in particular all forecast new records for gold in 2025, with the metal pushing above $2,500 and even towards $3,000! The average comes to $2,498.72 and would still represent a new record above the current all-time high for gold in dollars.

Considering the gold price predictions for last year have already been soundly beaten, Citi’s 2025 forecast of $3,000 doesn’t sound outside of the realms of possibly, and $2,500 has been close to being beaten already this year. As such, a range of $2,500 - $3,000 does seem reasonable for the gold price in 2025.