Metal Prices
	GBP	USD	EUR
Gold Price	£3,234.60	$4,341.34	€3,737.52
Silver Price	£52.50	$70.42	€60.62

Gold Price Forecast 2026 - Updated

Forecasts always come with a degree of uncertainty. They are, at best, a reflection of current conditions and how they may evolve. That said, the start of 2026 has moved faster than most expected. With that in mind, it feels appropriate to revisit our outlook for the remainder of the year.

While much has changed, many of the underlying drivers that pushed gold and silver to record highs in January remain in place. Central banks continue to buy at elevated levels, geopolitical tensions persist, and the longer-term outlook for the US dollar remains uncertain. What has shifted is the short-term dynamic, most notably through the conflict in Iran and its impact on energy markets.

Trade tensions

Over the past 12months, trade policy has been a key driver of uncertainty. Disputes involving tariffs, including tensions between the US and Europe and culminating with a dispute over Greenland, helped push gold to record highs above £4,000 ($5,634) per ounce.

While attention has since shifted to the Middle East, these issues have not gone away. If tensions ease elsewhere, trade policy is likely to return to the foreground and history suggests markets respond quickly when it does.

Central bank demand

Central bank buying has moderated slightly but remains elevated relative to historical levels. This reflects a continued effort by nations to diversify reserves away from US dollar exposure. Gold’s role as a neutral, tangible asset continues to support demand, and by extension, the longer-term price.

How Iran has reshaped the outlook

Geopolitical tension, unfortunately, is nothing new when looking at the last 12months. However, the situation in Iran has introduced a different dynamic. Whilst the US and Isreal's attack on Iranian military and nuclear targets late 2025 helped drive the gold price up, the wider and escalating conflict in March 2026 has had a very different impact.

The conflict’s focus on the Strait of Hormuz, a route for roughly a quarter of global oil supply, has had a direct impact on energy prices. Periodic disruptions have pushed oil above $100 per barrel, feeding into global inflation.

For the US, as a net exporter of energy, this has supported a stronger dollar, with that strength working against gold in the short term. A firmer dollar makes gold more expensive globally and shifts some investor attention towards yield-generating assets. At the same time, market volatility has triggered margin calls, prompting investors to liquidate liquid assets, including gold, to raise cash.

The result has been a notable pullback following an extended rally earlier in the year.

The US policy backdrop

At the start of 2026, markets were pricing in multiple interest rate cuts, but that expectation has since shifted.

Higher energy prices as a result of the Iran war have added to inflationary pressure, reducing the likelihood of near-term rate cuts. Combined with a resilient US economy and a potentially more hawkish Federal Reserve leadership with the incoming Kevin Warsh, policy is now expected to remain tighter for longer. This has provided further support to the dollar, reinforcing the short-term pressure on gold.

However, the underlying fragility of the dollar has not disappeared. A resolution in the Middle East could quickly shift expectations back towards easing and a more supportive environment for precious metals.

Price outlook

In simple terms, the longer-term case for gold remains intact. However, the Iran conflict has introduced a set of conditions that have temporarily constrained prices. But if those pressures ease, particularly through lower energy prices and shifting rate expectations, the market may begin to reprice quickly.

Most institutional forecasts continue to reflect this view, albeit with a wide range of outcomes:

HSBC: $3,950 – $5,050
Goldman Sachs: $5,400
UBS: $6,200
J.P. Morgan: $6,300 (with $4,400–$4,600 as a floor)
Wells Fargo: $6,100 – $6,300

As ever, we don't have a crystal ball, with the above numbers reflective of estimates at the time of writing by some of the leading market experts. If 2026 has taught us anything, things can move quickly either way.

Gold Price Forecast 2026 - Updated

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