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Countdown to Brexit – The outlook for Gold

Welcome to the BullionByPost 'Countdown to Brexit'. Here we will post regular digests of the latest Brexit news, and how it's impacting upon the Pound, the gold price, and the wider UK economy. You can also stay in the loop by signing up for our weekly email newsletters via the homepage or by browsing our News section.

With step one of Brexit now completed, and the withdrawal agreement ratified, our countdown timer now focuses on the current deadline for the 'transition' period - December 31st, 2020.

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bullionbypost.co.uk

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After a stalled parliament and no progress towards any Brexit resolution, a winter General Election last December gave a majority to the Conservatives and Prime Minister Boris Johnson, which in turn led to the approval of the Withdrawal Agreement Bill in the House of Commons and a subsequent signing of the deal with the European Union.

There were three Brexit scenarios that could occur; each one with a different outcome for gold bullion demand and subsequently prices. The threat of No Deal weakened Sterling over the past 18-24 months, and this in turn pushed up the domestic gold price, but the election result bolstered the Pound and brought gold back down slightly, with investors confident in Brexit now progressing.

This is just completion of phase one, however. Parliamentary approval and the signing of the deal confirms the UK's exit from the European Union. It does not guarantee how the EU trades with the UK, and vice versa. Legally, as per our deal, the UK must now enter a Transition Phase (phase two) where it will negotiate fresh trade terms with European Union officials, in the hope of a better deal for the United Kingdom.

Failure to secure a deal could leave the UK unable to access the EU market for many important day-to-day products, which would hurt the Pound Sterling, so the coming months will be crucial for the British economy. Uncertainty and risk historically benefit safe haven demand in assets like gold however, so a bad year for the UK could be a good year for gold investors.

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Key dates:

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Wednesday 9th December

Ursula von der Leyen

Prime Minister Boris Johnson is due to fly to Brussels today to hold talks with European Commission
President Ursula von der Leyen in a last-ditch effort to secure a Brexit deal, ahead of this month’s
legal deadline.

Talks between negotiating teams have failed to break the deadlock over the UK’s final trade status when
it leaves the EU on December 31st. Access to UK waters for fishing, and fair business competition have
been the main two sticking points, with the question on who and how to police these rules adding a
third complication.

After months of talks, and multiple deadlines passing without result, time is now about to run out. With
just 22 days remaining until the transition period legally ends, there are limited days for both the UK and
EU parliaments to meet and ratify any deal that is agreed, and this week is seen as the latest such a deal
will have time to pass.

It is hoped that the two leaders will be able to agree on a way to resolve the issues, with the political
clout and authority that the negotiating teams lacked, but the outlook remains uncertain for now.
Downing Street sources have said that a deal may not be possible based on the outcome of the talks
so far.

A deal is not expected to be agreed tonight however, and both sides have stressed that the meeting is
a way to try and get talks moving once more. With such little time left however, any further talks will need
to be carried out quickly.

Helping matters; a parallel set of discussions over the Northern Ireland border have ended in an agreement
being reached. Of particular note, the UK government agreed to remove contentious (and potentially illegal)
clauses from the Internal Markets Bill. The bill had cast a dark cloud over talks, and the agreement to
remove them may help improve discourse between the two leaders tonight.

The Pound has been volatile this week, moving up and down with each headline and comment regarding
the progress (or lack thereof) in the talks. Currently, it is up against both the Dollar and Euro, with traders
betting on a deal being agreed. If talks fall through at the final hour however then significant losses are
expected for the Pound in the weeks ahead.

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Thursday 22nd October
Michel Barnier

Brexit talks are set to resume today, following a temporary halt after Boris Johnson said that
negotiations were ‘over’.

The tough stance from the Prime Minister saw negotiations stopped this week, as the EU and
UK discussed whether to continue talks or walk away with no deal. Comments from EU negotiator
Michel Barnier appear however to have convinced the UK the return to the table for a final attempt
at resolving the long-standing dispute over Britain’s eventual post-Brexit trade status.

Mr Barnier said that he will continue to “seek the necessary compromises on both sides” and that
he believed a deal was “within reach”. Although these will undoubtedly sound familiar to comments
made previously, it was enough to bring the UK back to the table.

Negotiations will now apparently intensify; with diplomats holding talks 24 hours a day, and at
weekends. Both sides have agreed that there are just four weeks left before a deal must be ready
in time to be ratified by both parliaments, ahead of the UK’s official exit at the end of the year.

Given the months of deadlock however, it remains to be seen whether the final four weeks will be
enough for a deal to be agreed. A number 10 spokesperson said of the resumption of negotiations:
“It is clear that significant gaps remain between our positions in the most difficult areas, but we
are ready, with the EU, to see if it is possible to bridge them in intensive talks. As both sides have
made clear, it takes two to reach an agreement. It is entirely possible that negotiations will not
succeed. If so, the UK will end the transition period on Australia terms and will prosper in doing so.”

With both sides facing unprecedented economic damage due to coronavirus, and second waves
affecting both the UK and EU, there is fresh impetus to strike a deal. With both sides making it clear
that they expect compromise however and that neither will strike a deal at any cost, the next four
weeks could be the continuing limp towards a no deal started months ago.
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Tuesday 15th September


The government’s controversial Internal Markets Bill has passed its first hurdle, after succeeding
in its initial round of voting in parliament late last night.

The bill seeks to give the government the power to overrule certain pledges made in the legally
binding Withdrawal Agreement; particularly those regarding the border between the Republic and
Northern Ireland.

The effort by the government to overturn the previously signed deal has drawn criticism from MPs
from all parties. Shadow Secretary of State for Business – and former Labour leader – Ed Miliband,
launched a scathing attack on the PM during the debate, and accused Boris Johnson of ‘trashing’
the UK’s international reputation.

The sentiments have also been mirrored by several prior Conservative leaders, with Lord Hague saying
"It would have a lasting and damaging effect on our international reputation and standing, diminishing
our ability to exert our influence and protect our interests."

The Conservative majority was enough to see the bill pass by 77 votes clear, but a number of key
Conservatives abstained or voted against the government on it. It is now expected the bill will face much
more scrutiny and amendments as it passes through the House of Lords, and that more MPs will vote
against it at the final stage unless significant changes have been made.

The bill will likely put further pressure on the final weeks of trade talks, with the EU unsurprisingly
concerned over the government’s apparent intention to renege on a legally binding agreement signed
just a few months ago. The government meanwhile asserts that the bill will help alleviate UK concerns
over how much power the EU could continue to exert in the future and will make trade talks easier.

The Pound, which has been volatile recently with the return of no-deal fears, has strengthened against
other currencies as markets hope that Tory rebels will be enough to scupper the bill and help save a
possible final-hour Brexit deal. Economists at ING however believe that Brexit now stands a 50:50 chance
of no-deal happening.

It is unlikely the bill will pass through Lords and Commons amendment-free, nor in time for the PM’s
new October 15th deadline for talks. The governments intentions have been made clear for now however,
and the EU will likely go forward with negotiations on that basis. One month from today then we could
see no-deal Brexit officially announced, and further volatility in the Pound in that time based on how
markets perceive trade talks are progressing (or not).
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Wednesday 9th September

Struggling trade talks needed to resolve Brexit have been given additional pressure, after Prime
Minister Boris Johnson set a new deadline of October 15th.

If negotiation teams have failed to agree on new trade rules for the UK and EU following Brexit,
then the PM said he will recommend that both sides “move on”. This would see the UK proceed
with a no-deal Brexit many have warned would be damaging to the UK economy, and was considered
off the table following the general election and the PM’s “oven-ready” deal.

The news comes as minsters have also begun plans to introduce legislation that would make
changes to the Withdrawal Agreement originally voted in last year. As the basis for Brexit going
forward, any attempts to renege on those agreements have been met with criticism from MPs
in all parties, and Northern Ireland Secretary Brandon Lewis has even admitted that the changes
would “break international law”.

UK negotiator, David Frost, has also spoken of the lack of progress made in talks, and the lack of
compromise from either side. He was quoted at the weekend saying that the UK was not “scared”
to walk away from talks without a deal.

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With a new round of talks starting this week, tensions will likely be high, and the five-week
deadline leaves little time to try and resolve the ongoing issues. Fishery rights, and market
competition have been key sticking points, and given talks have been ongoing since March,
many are now wondering if five weeks will be enough to overcome the differences in opinions.

The Pound, which had been performing well against other currencies like the Dollar, has since
fallen steadily on the news, and is expected to fall further if a no-deal Brexit is the outcome.
Markets will undoubtedly be watching closely for any sign of progress in the talks, or for the
potential collapse that will so no-deal Brexit officially announced.
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Friday 15th May

The UK has warned of very little progress being made in Brexit negotiations so far, as the 2020
deadline marches on despite the coronavirus outbreak.

The negotiations - already considered impossible to complete by some within the proposed
timeline - were further slowed when the pandemic spread across Europe and the UK but have
now resumed. Resolution seems as out of sight as ever however after the government
confirmed that ‘very little’ progress has been made so far in the talks.

Access to British waters for fishing continues to be one of the main sticking points in negotiations,
and UK negotiator David Frost stated that the EU was refusing to move away from a “set of novel
and unbalanced proposals” in this area.

He added that the EU’s expectations were to have continued access to fishing waters "in a way that
is incompatible with our future status as an independent coastal state".

The EU’s negotiator Michel Barnier countered that the offer was the only way to avoid tariffs. In a
worrying sign that no-deal Brexit is still very much a risk, Mr Barnier went on to say of the negotiations
that he was “still determined but not optimistic” of a resolution.

With so much attention on coronavirus and its economic fallout, Brexit has fallen out of the spotlight
in economic news. Such negative comments just a few months from the 2020 deadline however is a
worrying sign that the economic damage already done by Covid-19 may be compounded by further
loss as a result of a no-deal Brexit.
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Thursday 27th February

The UK and EU have outlined their trade positions for the upcoming Brexit negotiations in the
coming months. Having officially left the EU last month, the UK remains in a “transition period”
due to end in December 2020. The two sides need to negotiate a range of agreements covering
the legal and operational mechanics of the UK’s exit from the EU, while making trade deals in
lieu of the UK’s exit from the common market.

Negotiations are due to start next month, but the two have released their public positions this week
ahead of the talks. Michael Gove spoke in Parliament today to discuss the government’s position
with MPs. There have been mixed reactions, with some surprised to find the government is planning
to abandon several commitments previously agreed in last year’s political declaration.

The paper in particular stated that the UK “ will not negotiate any arrangement in which the UK does
not have control of its own laws ”. This is in reference to European courts overturning UK court
decisions, one of the key issues for many during the referendum debate. The EU however wish for
the UK to remain closely aligned, maintaining the same laws and standards, to keep a level playing
field between the countries.

The UK also reiterated their desire for a free-trade deal similar to Canada – a desire which the EU has
already firmly stated won’t happen. The EU negotiating team has ruled out such a deal, citing the
UK’s close proximity to the EU, and high amount of trade as making this impossible.

Another sticking point will be fishing access. The UK wants to be a sovereign coastal state, with
sole access to British waters for fishing. This is contrary to EU wishes, which wants broader access
between the two countries.

In a move that shocked many however, the government warned it will walk away from talks in June
if there is no sign of a “broad outline” of a deal. The document says that if a deal does not look
possible by June, then the government would decide whether to continue negotiations, or turn all
focus on no-deal preparations.

It should be noted however that it is difficult to tell where compromises can be reached, and how
much of the paper is simply rhetoric from either side intended to strengthen their respective
negotiating positions.

The sudden reminder of the no-deal risk dropped the Pound to a three-month low of $1.286 against
the Dollar. This scenario would see the UK switch to simple World Trade Organisation (WTO) tariffs
and rules. UK businesses fear the disruption this would bring, particularly those that rely on Europe
for receiving stock or sending out orders – Michael Gove confirmed that the government needs to
hire and train 50,000 customs officials to help cope with the increased checks at ports in Britain.

Markets had hoped that the full ten-month period between now and December’s deadline would
be available for negotiations, but today’s announcement appears to have decreased the timeline
significantly. Given the clear differences between the two, this has put far more pressure on
negotiations, and raised the risk of no-deal Brexit.
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Friday 31st January

After 47 years, the UK will officially leave the European Union tonight at 23:00. After narrowly
voting to leave the EU in the historic June 2016 referendum, Brexit has become one of the defining
issues in Britain ever since.

Brexit has likely changed Britain forever, and ended the political careers of David Cameron, Theresa
May, and Jeremy Corbyn (to name just a few). As one of the most polarising votes in British history,
Brexit went on to cause a deadlock in Parliament unseen before in Britain. Voting repeatedly failed
to produce any kind of consensus, and only the recent general election managed to finally break
that deadlock, with the Conservatives gaining the necessary majority to “get Brexit done”.

At 22:00 tonight, Prime Minister Boris Johnson will call Brexit the “dawn of a new era”, in a televised
speech. In truth, little will change tonight however, as the UK will continue to follow EU rules and
regulations for the duration of the 11-month “transition period”. The UK and EU will spend these 11
months negotiating trade deals, and the future relationship between the two countries.

The Pound has been benefiting from ‘Brexit day’, as traders bet on businesses rebounding on the
back of increased certainty. In just 48 hours Sterling has climbed 1.5 cents against the Dollar.
This was also helped by the Bank of England who decided to leave interest rates on hold yesterday,
adopting a wait and see approach as to whether the UK economy will pick up this quarter.

With negotiations not due to begin until March, Brexit may fade slightly from public view for the
first half of 2020. As the year progresses however, markets will begin clamouring for news of how
the negotiations are going. The PM is expected to push for a basic trade deal, similar to that between
the EU and Canada.

This deal could help speed up negotiations, but many remain sceptical as to whether this can be
achieved before the December 31st deadline. If 2021 approaches with no sign of a trade deal, then
a resurgence of 2019s no-deal fears will occur.

For today however, it is an historic farewell – fond or not – from the UK to the EU.

Wednesday 8th January

MPs have returned to Parliament this week, with Brexit the primary focus. Following the
Conservative victory in December’s General Election, the new-look Commons is set to spend
three days (beginning yesterday afternoon) debating and analysing the Withdrawal Agreement
Bill.

Having already gained MP’s approval before Christmas, the Bill is now in the committee
stage. During this time MPs will begin poring over the details of the Bill, and can propose
amendments.

Several such amendments have already been announced, and selected for voting. Labour and
the Liberal Democrats both put forward amendments centred on the 11-month transition period
to be completed at the end of 2020. The Lib Dems attempted to force an extension request, while
Labour asked for a Parliamentary vote on the same issue. Both amendments were defeated
however, with Conservative majority flexing its new muscles.

With the new majority of 80 seats, it is expected the Brexit Bill will pass through the House relatively
unchanged. Other amendments on workers rights, the backstop, and even the chiming of Big Ben to
celebrate Britain exit on January 31st, are still to be voted on. With Conservative MPs standing firmly
behind PM Boris Johnson however, it is unlikely there will be any upsets in today’s and tomorrow’s
proceedings.

Assuming the Bill passes as planned, it will then be put before the House of Lords, before being ratified
in UK law. This will keep to the planned schedule for the UK to leave the EU on January 31st.

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The PM is also due to meet with the new EU President, Ursula von der Leyen, in their first meeting. Trade
discussions cannot officially begin until the UK has formally withdrawn from the EU so this week’s talks
between the two will not decide anything significant.

Mrs von der Leyen has repeated the EU’s stance that 11 months is not enough time for the negotiations,
saying that a full trade deal by the end of 2020 would be ‘impossible’. This will once again raise fears that
the 11-month deadline might simply force a no-deal exit at the end of 2020.
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Friday 13th December

After weeks of campaigning, Boris Johnson has secured his position as Prime Minister, with
a Parliamentary majority that has been missing since Theresa May’s ill-fated general election
in 2017. The Conservatives won 364 seats, beating all opposition, and ending the leadership
hopes of both Jeremy Corbyn and Jo Swinson.

What does the Conservative victory mean for Brexit? With a Parliamentary majority now in
place the first step for Boris Johnson will be the passing of his Withdrawal Agreement, which
should get through the House without any opposition.

Despite the PM’s campaign promise to ‘get Brexit done’, the Withdrawal Agreement only
represents the first phase of Brexit, and begins a period of intense negotiations over Britain’s
trade status with the EU.

Boris Johnson has promised that this will happen before the end of 2020, as is currently required
legally, but many are sceptical that this can be achieved. A comprehensive trade agreement with
the EU is expected to take much longer than the 11 months currently planned.

This means a no-deal Brexit is still a possibility; with four potential outcomes now for Brexit by
the end of 2020.

No-deal Brexit – If no trade deal is agreed, and the PM refuses to ask for an extension, the UK
could still crash out of the EU at the end of 2020.

Basic Free Trade Agreement – To release the UK from EU regulations, the PM could accept a
basic Free Trade Agreement, and accept the economic damage this is forecast to cause.

Softer Brexit – With his new majority, Boris Johnson is no longer dependent on the DUP and
the right-wing members of his own party. This means he could move to the centre and adopt
a softer approach to Brexit, accepting closer regulation with the EU in order to get the deal
through quicker.

Extension – If no deal is agreed, but the PM decides no-deal would be too damaging, he could
request an extension to the transition period.

Following a brief respite over Christmas, negotiations will start in earnest after the Withdrawal
Agreement has been passed in January. For now though, Brexit has taken another step on its
long-suffering journey, but the end is still far from in sight.
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Thursday 28th November

With just two weeks to go to the general election, polling continues to suggest a Conservative majority as the likeliest outcome. A newly-released poll of 100,000 people by YouGov places the Conservatives with a firm 68 seat majority. News of this has pushed the Pound up, with many investors preferring Johnson’s Brexit deal, to Corbyn’s anti-business policies.

The votes will be cast in 14 days’ time, and here’s where the main parties stand on Brexit:

Conservative Party: The Conservatives have been campaigning heavily as the party to ‘get
Brexit done.’ The party is firmly in favour of passing the deal negotiated recently by PM Boris
Johnson. A Conservative victory will see this deal passed through Parliament, and the first
phase of Brexit completed by January 2020.

Labour Party: The Labour Party have been accused of trying to play both sides. The party is
campaigning under a promise to renegotiate a new Brexit deal, involving a closer relationship
to the EU on trade. This new deal would then be put to the British people in a new Brexit referendum.
This could also include ‘remain’ as an option.

Liberal Democrats: The Liberal Democrats have been campaigning as the party of remain. They
have pledged to cancel Brexit altogether should they achieve a majority. Recently however – with
all polls showing that a majority for the Lib Dems is very unlikely – they have expressed their
intention to push for a second referendum.

Scottish National Party: The SNP are pro-remain, and have been campaigning on the basis of
holding a second referendum on Brexit. The SNP have also been pushing for another referendum
on Scottish independence, and have said that if they do leave the UK, that Scotland will apply to
re-join the EU in the event Brexit happens.

Green Party: The Green Party have been vocal in their support a second referendum. Their only
MP, Caroline Lucas, is a supporter of remaining in the EU. The Greens have also been an eager participant
in the 'Remain Alliance' with the Lib Dems and the SNP; withdrawing from low chance seats to allow
one of the other two a better shot at the seat and thus installing a Remain MP.

Brexit Party: The Brexit Party unsurprisingly want to leave the EU immediately without a deal, and
believe that Boris Johnson’s deal does not deliver on Brexit. They have however agreed not to
challenge the Conservatives in safe seats, to try and ensure that some form of Brexit does still
happen.

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Friday the 13th will be unlucky for all but one of the above parties, and the impact the result has on the gold price could be significant in either direction.
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Tuesday 19th November

Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn will face off tonight in a TV debate on ITV, with Brexit set to
be a priority topic. Tonight’s debate is the first of the election campaign, and has not been without
controversy. The decision to invite only the Conservative and Labour party leaders drew anger
from other parties. This even included a legal challenge from the Lib Dems and SNP.

They argued that ITV’s decision presented a “binary choice” to voters and was a clear attempt
to “pre-empt the decision of the people in a general election.” The bid was rejected however
with just 15 minutes deliberation by the judges, who said that ITV as a private company were
not offering a “public function” by holding the debate.

All major polling data continues to suggest that the election will see the Conservatives win, and
with a majority in all likelihood.

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The Lib Dems and Brexit party have both seen their shares dropping in the recent weeks. Both parties had
hoped to take votes as the extremes of remain and leave respectively, but the strategy seems to be failing,
with the two main parties continuing their dominance.

Pound Sterling has been boosted by the polls, climbing back towards $1.30. A statement from Boris Johnson
that all of the selected Conservative MPs have pledged to support his Brexit deal, has also helped. If the polls
are correct, and the PM gets a new majority – one that has now promised to stand behind him on Brexit –
then an end could finally be in sight for Brexit.

UK business has also been spooked by recent announcements from Labour. A four-day working week, a number
of nationalisations for utilities and businesses, and increased corporation tax have business worried about what
the UK’s business sector would look like under a Labour government.

Tonight’s debate is early enough to be forgotten, but both will be looking to make a strong start to the TV
campaign. Few surprises are expected, with both likely sticking to the party line. With just 23 days to go
to election day though, both will be hoping to convince more people to trust them with their votes.
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Tuesday 5th November

Sir Lindsay Hoyle has officially been elected as the new Speaker of the House of Commons, following
four rounds of voting last night. In one of the last acts of the current Parliament, the previous deputy
won the support of MPs to replace the outgoing Speaker John Bercow, who stepped down after a
decade in the chair.

Speaker Hoyle has been a Labour MP for over 20 years, but will now resign from the party in order to
maintain the impartiality of the Speaker’s role. Sir Lindsay – seen as a firm favourite from the start –
was one of seven candidates, and went on to win by 325 votes to 213 votes for fellow Labour MP
Chris Bryant.

Bercow has been an undeniably controversial figure in the seat, and was seen as key in how Brexit
unfolded in the Commons. His choice of amendments to a number of Brexit bills, as well his denial
to hold repeat votes on the Withdrawal Agreement, impacted MPs from across the House. Sir Lindsay
however is seen as more traditional to the outgoing Speaker, with less of a penchant for stretching
the rules.

With Parliament set to ‘dissolve’ just after midnight tonight, ahead of the upcoming December 12th
general election, the political landscape that the new Speaker will oversee is something of a mystery.

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The Conservatives are leading polls at the moment, but the lead is slim; and given the numerous misfires
in recent elections by pollsters, predictions are being taken with a generous pinch of salt.

With just over five weeks to the General Election, over 60 MPs from various parties have announced their
intentions to stand down and whatever the result, Parliament will have a number of new faces. Whether these
new faces will be able to break over three years of Brexit deadlock however remains to be seen.

Image of Sir Lindsay Hoyle courtesy of UK Parliament under Creative Commons Licence.

Wednesday 30th October

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Only a day after voting against it... MPs have voted in favour of holding a general election on Thursday December 12. The House of Lords is expected to approve the proposal today, for official confirmation by the end of the week at the latest.

The House of Commons voted on two motions regarding bringing the election forward to Monday December 9th but, after these proposals were defeated, members overwhelmingly voted in favour of the election - 438 to 20 in favour.

Amendments to offer votes up to 16 and 17 year olds, as well as to resident EU nationals, were not selected for discussion by the deputy Commons speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle.

Despite the initial protests about student voting and the impact of the time of year on the elderly, Britain's political parties will now spend the next six weeks arguing why they are the party to lead the country forward. Current projections see the Conservatives with the largest amount of MPs in the chamber, though Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson believes her party could go from 19 seats to over 100.

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Tuesday 29th October

The EU confirmed yesterday morning that the Brexit deadline had been extended once again - this time
until January 31st, 2020. The decision came after MPs voted last week to pass the Withdrawal Agreement
Bill to the second reading, but proposed fresh amendments - amendments that the government said
weren't possible under the EU terms and thus put the bill into limbo.

The government proposed a general election to break the deadlock, but Boris Johnson suffered his
eleventh defeat from 13 votes in the House of Commons last night as the government failed to gain the
required two-thirds backing needed. 299 MPs to 70 voted in favour of the election call, but this was still
135 short of granting the PM a majority.

Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act, a definitive majority of MPs must back a call for an election, else
continue with the government's term. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is keen to hold an election to try and
break the Brexit indecision in Parliament, and while opposition MPs are onboard, many abstained from
voting last night in order to amend the government's proposal later today.

Labour and the Liberal Democrats both want the election to be held on December 9 - three days before
the Conservatives have proposed. This, in their view, would allow more students the chance to vote before
returning home for Christmas, but there are rumours that the opposition parties will concede if the
government agrees to fix the election date.

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn criticised the Prime Minister in the chamber yesterday afternoon for having
spent £100 million on advertising October 31st as the guaranteed conclusion of Brexit, while the Scottish
National Party accused Corbyn and Labour of shying away from an election despite repeatedly calling for
one.

MPs will debate and vote on an election once again this afternoon from 12:30pm onwards.

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Wednesday 23rd October

As expected, Brexit has once again hit another stumbling block, following another defeat for the
Prime Minister.

In the first sign of some progress on Brexit, Boris Johnson’s Withdrawal Agreement Bill achieved
a majority during its second reading in Commons. MPs voted 329 to 299 in favour of passing the
Bill in principle, a reasonable majority considering the DUP voted against the government.

The relief was short lived however, as just a few minutes later the tables were turned, and MPs voted
to reject the three day proposed timetable in which the Bill could pass through the House. The margin
was tighter with 322 votes against, and 308 for; meaning if just 8 MPs had voted differently the
timetable would have passed, and Brexit would potentially have been agreed by the end of this week.

As threatened earlier in the day, the PM withdrew the Bill following the defeat, suspending its progress.
Despite his fervent promises to the contrary, it seems even Boris Johnson has accepted that Brexit
cannot happen by the October 31st deadline in 8 days. There is one way this could happen: if the EU
were to deny the extension request sent by the PM at the weekend, then legally this would result in a
no-deal Brexit on Halloween.

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As the above tweet from Donald Tusk shows though, the EU has all but confirmed however that they will
grant a further extension; not wanting to be blamed if a no-deal Brexit occurs. A decision from the EU is
expected in “the coming days”, and will almost certainly shape the next steps for Brexit.

The government is now pushing for a general election by Christmas as their primary goal, seeing an
election as the only way to break the impasse. Labour however have said they would be prepared to work
with the government to agree “a reasonable timetable”. A short delay from the EU then might allow the
Bill to be rescued from its current limbo, where a longer delay would likely result in a general election.

With just eight days left on the countdown, Brexit uncertainty continues to rumble on.

Tuesday 22nd October

MPs will vote this evening on the Withdrawal Agreement Bill and its timetable, following yesterday’s
refusal by Speaker John Bercow to hold a meaningful vote.

The Withdrawal Bill was officially published last night, containing 115 pages regarding the UK’s exit
from the EU, and seems set to be passed by MPs when voted on tonight at 19:00. The numbers are
tight, but there appears to be enough support for the Bill with the ERG and a number of Labour MPs
announcing their support.

Leader of the Commons Jacob Rees-Mogg caused some further controversy however when he
announced the intended timeline for the Bill of just three days. With nine days to the current Halloween
deadline, the government is keen to keep its promise of Brexit by October 31st. The three day
timeline however has caused outrage amongst opposition MPs.

Many have pointed out that MPs have been given a lot longer to debate arguably less important bills
in the past, and that Brexit’s huge implication requires far longer than three days to debate. Others
have countered that the three years of ongoing Brexit negotiations mean MPs have already been given
enough time to debate and consider their positions.

It is expected that support for the Bill will be gained, beginning the first steps of the Brexit process. The
PM is expected to suffer another humiliating defeat regarding the timetable however, with MPs expected
to demand a longer timeframe.

Another issue for the PM is that during the debating process, MPs can table and vote on amendments
to the Bill. Given the range of opinions on Brexit, it is expected a number of amendments will be tabled
that significantly change the intention of the deal. This includes a second referendum, and an attempt
by the Labour party to include a customs union.

Boris Johnson has already confirmed that this is the deal as far as he’s concerned, and he will not accept
amendments that significantly alter the ‘integrity’ of the deal. Indeed, any changes would require the PM
to return to the EU and ask for a further agreement to be ratified. This could mean that if the deal changes
too far beyond the PM’s vision he may remove the bill, essentially taking things back to square one.

Extension continues to be the question on many minds. The PM is trying to avoid one at all costs, but
with nine days to go, things may be out of his hands. The letter he sent requesting an extension is being
considered by the EU, and despite the lack of clarity, seems likely to be granted. A general election still
seems one of the only ways to break the deadlock, and could happen before the end of the year, but will
require Boris Johnson to break his promise of finishing Brexit on October 31st no matter what.
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Monday 21st October

A Brexit decision has once again been delayed, albeit for a potentially brief period, following another
defeat for PM Boris Johnson. MPs held an unusual Saturday sitting of Parliament, with many hoping
the long-lasting Brexit saga might finally be resolved, but MPs failed to agree on anything beyond
delaying the decision again.

Boris Johnson had intended to use Saturday’s session to hold a meaningful vote on his newly negotiated
Brexit deal. The numbers looked tight, but whether it would have succeeded or not remains a mystery
for now.

Former Conservative MP Oliver Letwin, tabled an amendment that allowed MPs to vote on holding off
on deciding until the Withdrawal Agreement Bill has actually passed through both the House of Commons
and Lords. This could take several days, and forced the PM to send the delay request letter he had been
so vocally opposed to, as required by the recent Benn Bill. In a show of defiance however the PM refused
to sign the letter, and sent a second letter stating his disapproval of a delay. The Letwin amendment
narrowly passed by 322 votes to 306, but effectively killed off any chance of a decision being made.

The PM has already decided to push on though, and is hoping to hold the vote again today. This could
however be blocked by Speaker John Bercow, under rules about MPs debating the same issue twice.
Analysts do however believe that there is just enough support for the deal to now pass.

With the current deadline now just 10 days away, time is short. Eyes are on EU officials to see if they
will grant the extension begrudgingly requested by the PM. Most are being tight lipped – perhaps hoping
to encourage MPs towards finally making a decision – but the opinion is that the EU would still allow
for a further extension rather than a no deal.

The next few days look to be key, and could provide some sort of resolution, but this is hardly the first
time we’ve heard that, and the days to Brexit are counting down.

Friday 18th October

The United Kingdom and the European Union have announced that a Withdrawal Agreement has been
reached, and a Brexit deal can now be presented to Parliament.

The PM has described it as a ‘great new deal’ and there’s an argument that he has caused the EU to
concede on negotiating a new deal when they said they wouldn’t, however the changes make it very
similar to Theresa May’s deal; a deal which was repeatedly defeated. Boris Johnson is currently
on one Commons vote win from eight attempts, so a Parliamentary majority to pass
said deal is looking a little unlikely…

The differences between Theresa May’s deal and the new deal are the removal of the backstop
primarily, and a commitment to avoiding a physical border between the Republic and Northern Ireland.
Instead, a customs border will apply down the Irish Sea.

The DUP has expressed serious concerns about VAT application, delays in the customs process, and
Stormont’s overall power to consent to trade developments, though Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab
(somewhat ironically) praised Northern Ireland’s “frictionless access” to Europe’s single market.

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The House of Commons will meet tomorrow for one of the only Saturday sittings in the chamber’s history,
with MPs voting on – and suggesting amendments for – the Withdrawal Agreement. The Times newspaper
and Sky News have each published voting expectations which show a narrow defeat for the government,
but with 24 hours until voting, ministers could yet be persuaded.

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has described it as a “sell-out deal”, while Nigel Farage of the Brexit Party
accused the EU of being “a thuggocracy - power without accountability” after threatening no further
extension should the deal be rejected tomorrow.

There are suggestions that the SNP will launch a vote of no confidence against the government should the
deal pass the Commons, but the DUP’s support will be key to determining the success of the deal: if they’re
onboard then the agreement likely passes and a no confidence vote likely fails, but if they object and oppose
we could see the complete opposite, and further strain on the Pound Sterling as Brexit hangs in the balance
all over again.

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Wednesday 9th October

Brexit negotiations between the UK and the EU look to be on the verge of collapse, as Parliament
heads into the final two weeks of Brexit talks. October 17th sees EU leaders meet for a council
summit, with Brexit likely dominating the agenda. The following Saturday (October 19th) is the
deadline set by Parliament, in which an agreement must either be reached, or a new extension
requested.

Optimism appeared to grow when Boris Johnson presented his new deal last week, with many
Conservative MPs declaring their support. Hopes have been all but dashed however, following
a number of statements from the EU that the deal is not acceptable to them. Ireland remains a
sticking point; with Boris Johnson’s suggestions being rejected as 'unworkable'.

Leaks from Number 10 have suggested that the government is planning for a no deal Brexit, and
expect talks to break down soon. Boris Johnson held a phone call with German leader Angela
Merkel yesterday, but the outcome appears to have been similarly unsuccessful. Donald Tusk,
in a rare showing of emotion, took to Twitter to accuse the PM of trying to win ‘some stupid
blame game’.

Both sides have said that negotiations will continue, but many now believe there is little hope of
a deal being reached before the summit next week. Irish premier Leo Varadkar has said it will be
‘very difficult’ for the UK and the EU to reach an agreement before October 31st.

In a very unusual move, Parliament will sit next Saturday (October 19th) in a special session, to
try and come to some decision on the next steps for Brexit. As the BBC’s Nick Eardley points out,
it is a very rare occurrence for MPs to attend Commons on a Saturday.

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The next two weeks then will see some sort of decision made. If a last minute deal with the EU
is agreed, then MPs will vote on whether to approve it. If, as seems likely, no deal is agreed then
MPs will face a number of options. Likely this will involve trying to force Boris Johnson to seek
an extension, something which he has repeatedly ruled out. Other options could involve votes on
leaving without a deal, or halting Brexit altogether.

Parliament has been incapable of reaching consensus on Brexit for years now. The next two weeks
could see some sort of resolution, but could also see the decision pushed back yet again.
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Thursday 3rd October

Boris Johnson has laid out his proposals for a new Brexit deal, with the changes focused solely
around Northern Ireland. The PM sent EU leaders a letter he dubbed a “broad landing zone” for
a new deal to be reached.

The proposals would see Northern Ireland continue to apply EU rules regarding agriculture, in
an “all-island regulatory zone”. This arrangement would be subject to a vote by the Stormont
Assembly every four years. The idea is to avoid border checks between the Republic of Ireland
and Northern Ireland, with customs checks being decentralised.

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The DUP have confirmed their support of the proposals, an important gain considering the government
would likely need their votes should the deal reach Commons. Brexiteer MPs have also signalled they
would support the new deal. Others have been less impressed by the offer; Labour have called the deal
unacceptable, while other Northern Ireland parties have also criticised the proposals. The Irish Prime
Minister, Leo Varadkar, said the offer “did not fully meet the agreed objectives of the backstop.”

The deal is now being considered by EU leaders who have been tentative in any response so far. The
proposal would mean some significant compromise on the part of the EU, and would require an
essentially open border between the EU Republic of Ireland, and UK Norther Ireland. Negotiations are
now expected to move into a phase of fine tuning, with a final deal needed before 19th October.

If the EU reject the new deal, Boris Johnson has said that there will be no further negotiations, and that
the government will operate on the basis of leaving without a deal. How the PM intends to legally leave
without a deal remains to be seen; the recent Benn Bill means that an extension must be requested.

Downing Street have also confirmed that Parliament will be prorogued again next Tuesday, until October
14th, in order to continue with the planned Queen’s Speech. The shorter timeframe will likely be enough
to avoid any issues regarding last month’s ruling that the previous five week suspension was unlawful.

With 28 days left to the current Brexit deadline however, time is growing ever shorter, and the Brexit
uncertainty continues.
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Monday 30th September

Prime Minister Boris Johnson could be dismissed from office by Her Majesty The Queen, according
to the former attorney general, Dominic Grieve.

Speaking to Sky News this morning, Mr Grieve – one of the 21 MPs sacked from the Conservative
Party – said that failing to secure either a new deal or a Brexit extension by October 19th
would likely result in the PM’s dismissal from office.

The statement comes after The i Paper ran a story this morning claiming that the Queen had already
sought advice on her powers, following the Supreme Court’s ruling that prorogation was unlawful and
the implication that the Prime Minister had misled the Queen when seeking assent.

The claims come at a bad time for Boris Johnson, with growing speculation about his relationship with
model-turned-businesswoman Jennifer Arcuri, for whom he granted special trade access on three
overseas visits whilst Mayor of London, as well as procuring an estimated £126,000 of public funding
for her.

Despite the public scrutiny, the Conservative Party conference has gone ahead in Manchester, with pro-
Brexit MPs discussing potential ways around the Benn Bill towards a no-deal Brexit. Stephen Barclay,
the Brexit secretary, also met with Michel Barnier last Friday, with Mr Barnier reportedly saying that the
PM’s polarising behaviour had led to a “limited chance of approval of a deal in the current parliament”.
While some will argue that this is potentially a political prod from the EU, others will likely point out that
a straight-up ‘No Deal vs Revoke’ situation is exactly what Boris Johnson wants.

The Prime Minister will be in attendance of his party’s conference and will not appear at this week’s PMQs
session, with Dominic Raab expected to take his stead, so it will be Wednesday October 9th before the PM
is back in the firing lines for Commons questions about Brexit and other matters.

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Tuesday 24th September

The Supreme Court has ruled that Boris Johnson's suspension of Parliament was unlawful. In another
blow to the Prime Minister, MPs will now be recalled and are due to sit tomorrow (Wed 25th).
Read our full story about the Supreme Court's decision.

Boris Johnson is currently in New York, but responded by saying that he did not think the ruling was
the "right decision".

The decision to recall parliament will likely cause headaches for the PM, and will restart Brexit disputes
in Commons. Having fallen foul of the Supreme Court his position looks tenuous, and several opposition
MPs have come forward to call for his resignation.

With just over a month to go until the current Brexit deadline, MPs must now agree to a deal, agree to leave
with no deal, or convince the EU to agree to an extension. Boris Johnson is legally required to request this
extension following the passing of the Benn motion a few weeks ago, but continues to assure the country
that Brexit will happen on October 31st. If the extension request is denied however, as France and Finland
has hinted they might do, then the legal default of Article 50 is still to leave the EU on October 31st at 23:00.

The political stage has been set once more and, with MPs returning to the House tomorrow, Westminster is
set for yet another chaotic week.
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Wednesday 11th September

Scottish judges today have ruled that Boris Johnson’s suspension (prorogation) of Parliament is unlawful,
in a success for SNP MP Joanna Cherry. Cherry led a group of 70 MPs and peers who were challenging
the decision to suspend Parliament, claiming that Johnson was trying to use the time to avoid scrutiny
and force through a no-deal Brexit.

In a further blow to the Prime Minister’s Brexit plans, the panel of three judges at the Court of session
overturned an earlier decision that the suspension was legal. The judges claim that the PM was
motivated by the desire to stymie parliament. Their concluding words in particular could cause a
headache for the government, adding:

“The court will accordingly make an Order declaring that the Prime Minister’s advice to HM the Queen and
the prorogation which followed thereon was unlawful and is this null and of no effect.”

With Parliament’s prorogation already enacted Monday night, some have called for MPs to be recalled
immediately. A group of around 40 MPs have already gathered in London to show their support for the ruling.

The government however has released a statement that they will not be recalling MPs, and the prorogation
is still in effect until the UK Supreme Court makes its final decision at an appeal hearing scheduled for Tuesday.

If the Supreme Court upholds this mornings decision however, there will be little choice left for the PM, but to
recall Parliament. The PM is also required to release all communications tonight pertaining to the prorogation
of Parliament. These could have bearing on the court case, but have likely been submitted to the courts already.
More likely is they could publicly show that the PM had made clear plans to prorogue parliament far earlier than
announced, and perhaps his motivations.

Further defeats will be painful for the PM, with a general election almost guaranteed in the coming months, and
Tuesday could be a tense day for the government.

Tuesday 10th September .................................................................................................................. Image: ©UK Parliament/Jessica Taylor

The Houses of Parliament officially prorogued last night, but not without a last stand from opposition
MPs and rebels alike to inflict two fresh defeats on Prime Minister Boris Johnson, as well as a protest
at the end of the session.

Speaker John Bercow kicked off proceedings with the surprise announcement that he would be standing
down as Speaker of the House; whether at the occurrence of a snap general election or at the close of
session on October 31st - whichever comes first. Bercow has been in the Commons for a decade in the
Speaker's chair now and, while many will be disappointed to lose such a character from the forefront of
British politics, there are those who believe this is a tactical move to replace the Speaker with someone
similar before the Commons has a reshuffle as part of an almost-inevitable election.

The main actions in the Commons came as a result of Standing Order 24, which allows emergency
debates. The first such motion was raised by Conservative MP Dominic Grieve, who requested that “all
correspondence, whether formal or informal in both written and electronic form” pertaining to prorogation
should be disclosed to the House of Commons. This would range from just before Boris Johnson's
confirmation as Prime Minister, and would include messaging and mailing services such as WhatsApp,
Facebook Messenger, Telegram and Signal, as well as text messages, Apple's iMessage, and private email
accounts.

The Commons approved Grieve's request, giving the government a deadline of 11pm on Wednesday to
comply, but the Attorney General Geoffrey Cox has suggested that this would be an invasion of privacy,
while a No10 spokesperson told Robert Peston that Downing Street would not comply.

The next SO24 request came from the Leader of the Opposition, Jeremy Corbyn, whose point of order
was aimed to reinforce the point that the European Union (Withdrawal) (No. 2) Act (also known as the Benn
motion) had now passed and that it was of the utmost importance that government ministers complied with
the requirements of the bill. This was a less than subtle swipe at Prime Minister Johnson, who has stated he
would 'rather die in a ditch' than go to Brussels to ask for an extension to the Brexit deadline at the end of the
month. Given this was a requirement set out in the law, there is the potential that the Prime Minister commits
a criminal act if he chooses to defy the House of Commons. What is less clear is the ramifications for doing
so: could a Prime Minister be arrested? Would the Prime Minister be ejected from office thus forcing a new
government to be formed, given the Tory party's zero majority? Can the PM delay long enough to ensure a no-
deal Brexit by the end of the month and win even if he loses? All of these questions remain to be answered.

After much deliberation and debate, Commons business sought to wrap up a little after midnight, but not
before opposition MPs including Labour's Gina Miller blocked the Speaker's path out of the chamber and
brandished signs reading "SILENCED" for the Commons cameras. Parties took it in turn to break into song
too, with the SNP and Plaid Cymru singing traditional Scottish and Welsh folk songs, before the Labour
benches broke into The Red Flag. Eventually order was restored, and Speaker Bercow - along with a raft of
MPs - made their way to the House of Lords to close Parliament at around 2am.

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Wednesday 4th September

Boris Johnson suffered a Brexit setback last night in his first vote as Prime Minister. MPs once
again voted to take control of Parliamentary business, and will today vote on blocking no-deal
Brexit on October 31st.

The government was defeated by 328 votes to 301, with 21 Tory MPs rebelling. As threatened
by Johnson, these 21 rebels have now had the whip removed, and face deselection from the
Conservative party. This includes senior politicians including Phillip Hammond and Ken Clarke,
with the former of the two promising to fight for his place in the party.

The loss is a significant setback for Johnson; his platform of Brexit – come what may – is now
under threat, but the deselection of Conservative rebels has removed the PM’s majority in the
House. Without a majority, Johnson is incapable of passing legislation without support of
opposition MPs.

Following Johnson’s first Prime Ministers Questions today, MPs will debate and vote on the bill
which seeks to force the PM to request a further Brexit extension of January 31st, 2020. Given
the results of last night's vote, most expect the bill to pass, after which it will need to be fast-
tracked through the House of Lords before becoming law.

If the bill passes today then the government has confirmed it will call for a snap general election,
with a date of October 15th currently suggested. Johnson will be hoping that by campaigning as
the major party that will see Brexit carried out, he can draw on the 52% of the UK population who
voted to leave the EU in 2016. With a stronger majority, his mandate to leave would be improved,
and he could return to his original plan of leaving on October 31st.

An election could be a risk however when considering the European election results in May,
which saw remain-supporting parties like the Liberal Democrats gain a significant portion of the
vote-share. If Labour were to capitalise on the remain sentiment, then they could push the
Conservatives out of power, be it on their own or with a coalition partner.

A general election is not guaranteed yet however; for one to be held the government would need
two-thirds of MPs to agree, and currently that is in doubt. Despite promising to hold the election
on October 15th, the PM would be legally able to push the date back to November, with the UK
defaulting out of the EU in the meantime.

Labour have said they will not vote for a general election, until the no-deal bill has been ratified,
saying that there is no trust in Boris Johnson. This means tonight’s attempt to call a general
election could fail, the second defeat for the government in as many days.

With only one week before Parliament is prorogued, MPs are quickly running out of time, and the
chaotic week has left investors wary. Gold reached a new Sterling record of £1,282.69 yesterday
afternoon. Silver has also been making significant gains recently, rising 36.91% in the past three
months. The week ahead could have far reaching implications for British politics, and the
economy, with bullion prices moving accordingly.
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Wednesday 28th August

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has taken the surprise decision to prorogue Parliament and suspend
its proceedings for five weeks in the run-up to the Brexit deadline. The move - one which the PM
previously said he did not want to pursue - will see parliamentary proceedings ceased between
September 9 and September 12 - just under two weeks time.

The news was leaked to journalists including Nick Robinson this morning, with the Pound quickly
losing value in response - falling half a cent in the matter of a couple of hours.

By midday the news was that the Queen would meet three members of the Privy Council at her
Balmoral estate to discuss proroguing Parliament, with the plan to begin a new session after
the Queen's Speech in the middle of October.

Opposition leaders including Jeremy Corbyn and Nicola Sturgeon have expressed their outrage
at the move, and are expected to take coordinated action as part of their recent 'Remain Alliance'
efforts, while Speaker of the House John Bercow was alerted to the news on holiday, prompting
his ire.

"I have had no contact from the Government, but if the reports that it is seeking to prorogue
Parliament are confirmed, this move represents a constitutional outrage, " Mr Bercow told reporters.

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Friday 23rd August

After Prime Minister Boris Johnson was given a glimmer of hope earlier this week by German Chancellor Angela Merkel, investor confidence in the Pound - and the hope that Brexit can be resolved sooner rather than later - has driven Sterling back up in value. The Pound rose from Tuesday's low of $1.207 to a week-high of $1.227.

The PM has been on a quickfire tour of Europe to meet leaders including Merkel and France's Emmanuel Macron, with Mr Johnson keen to make Brexit progress on the Irish Backstop before the opposition parties can mobilise and potentially force through a vote of no-confidence in the new Tory leader.

In France, meanwhile, L'Opinion had this cheeky cartoon to sum up the week's discussions between the big three leaders...

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Wednesday 14th August

Could a general election happen this autumn? Yes, if Conservative MP Damian Hinds' Instagram
account is to be believed. The minister for East Hampshire posted a screenshot of his email inbox
to his 'Story' yesterday, with a draft message visible titled 'Re[2]: GE2019 team thoughts'.

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Mr Hinds was quick to deny a gaffe, telling ITN's political correspondent Paul Brand that there will not
be a general election in the autumn. Despite describing it as "a little techno snafu", the post is still live
on his account - over 19 hours later.

Many will be less than convinced by Hinds' denial, and given that Amber Rudd gave a similar interview
to journalists days before there is a feeling that the government might be trying too hard to deny such
plans.

An autumn election might not be a bad thing, however. Boris Johnson is enjoying a poll boost at present
but following the Lib Dem victory in the Brecon by-election the government's Commons majority now sits
at just one MP. Political experts have suggested that a general election sooner, rather than later, could be
the PM's best chance to rectify this weak footing, and an election result either way could resolve the Brexit
impasse at the same time, though whether an election could be held before the October 31st Brexit deadline
is yet to be seen.

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Friday 9th August

Fears of a no-deal Brexit continue to grow following the first few weeks of Boris Johnson’s premiership.
Analysts are now expecting the UK to leave the EU on October 31st without a deal, and the Pound has
suffered a bruising fortnight as a result. In the past two weeks, the Pound has dropped from 1.24989
to a low of 1.20915 against the Dollar.

Johnson has repeatedly stated that any new withdrawal agreement would need to have the Irish backstop
removed. The EU however has refused to reopen negotiations on that basis, reasserting that the deal
negotiated by Theresa May was the best and final offer.

It’s not the start new PM Boris Johnson would have wanted, as business and financial institutions continue
to warn of the negative impact a no-deal Brexit will have on the economy. This has been somewhat proven
today, with news that the UK’s economy shrank by 0.2% in the second quarter of 2019, and has significantly
raised fears of a recession.

Further complicating matters is a growing call, amongst both opposition parties and Tory rebels, to try and
block no-deal Brexit by means of a no-confidence vote. Considering Johnson only commands a majority of 1
seat, his position in Parliament is weak to say the least.

With MPs currently on holiday, time is running out, and senior Tory advisor Dominic Cummings has reportedly
claimed that even if Johnson were to lose a no-confidence vote, he would still be able to force Brexit through.
Little happens quickly in the House of Commons, and in the time it might take for a general election to be
called and held, the October 31st deadline would be reached. The legal default in that case would be for Britain
to leave without a deal.

Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn has called for assurances that such a move cannot take place however, saying
that ‘Forcing through No Deal in a General Election campaign would be an unprecedented, unconstitutional
and anti-democratic abuse of power…’

The chaos surrounding Brexit has seen the price of gold surge to all-time highs, gaining 25.5% in the three
months since Theresa May announced her resignation. With Brexit dragging the economy closer to recession,
and a potential political legal-wrangle that could result in a general election, there is still plenty of potential for
gold to make further gains.
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Wednesday 24th July

After just over a month since the announcement, Theresa May has resigned as the Prime Minister.
Mrs May appeared at her final Prime Minister's Questions in the House of Commons, enjoying
strong debate with both Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and the SNP's Westminster leader Ian Blackford,
with the chamber revisiting the good and the bad during her tenure.

May and her husband, Philip, have since appeared outside of Number 10 Downing Street for a final
statement, before departing for Buckingham Palace to meet with Her Majesty The Queen. Once their
meeting is concluded, Boris Johnson will go to the palace - likely only minutes later - to be requested
by the Queen to form a new government.

Talk is already growing about political appointments, with suggestions of Sajid Javid to Chancellor,
Priti Patel to Home Secretary, and Dominic Raab to Foreign Secretary - all Brexit supporters. Similarly,
Dominic Cummings has been appointed as a senior adviser to Boris Johnson having helped orchestrate
the Vote Leave campaign. This could suggest that Prime Minister Johnson is actively aiming for a
no-deal Brexit, which in turn could mean continued weakness in Sterling and perhaps - as warned by
Morgan Stanley - lead to parity between the Dollar and the Pound.

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Tuesday 23rd July

Boris Johnson has been announced as the new Conservative Party leader and, as a result, the
next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

Johnson defeated Jeremy Hunt in the final leadership vote, in which 139,245 party members cast
their vote to decide who would be Theresa May's replacement. Of these, Boris Johnson acquired
92,153 votes - a 66.1% vote share - while Jeremy Hunt received around half that, with 46,656 votes.

Minutes after the announcement the value of the Pound Sterling fell from $1.247 to $1.244. The
domestic gold price subsequently moved, climbing from £1,138.58 per ounce to £1,145.67 per
ounce - a shift that can be attributed to investors wary of Johnson's Brexit approach when
considering previous price swings and how they coincided with comments from both Boris
Johnson and Jeremy Hunt about a no-deal departure from the EU.

The new Prime Minister will be officially made leader tomorrow afternoon, following Theresa
May's final meeting with the Queen at Buckingham Palace.

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Thursday 11th July

Entrepreneur Richard Branson today issued a warning that a no-deal Brexit would cause a sharp
devaluation of the Pound and likely match it to the US Dollar.

Speaking to BBC News, Branson said: " The Pound was at $1.53 when the referendum took
place. The Pound today it is at $1.22, $1.23, and the Pound will collapse to parity with the Dollar if
there is a hard Brexit.

"It obviously is going to result in us spending a lot less money in Britain, and just putting all our
energies into other countries".

Sir Richard Branson is the billionaire owner of the Virgin Group, which started with a record label
and grew into holidays, an airline, a train franchise, a private space travel enterprise, and perhaps
most well known is his current Virgin Media brand.

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Monday 1st July

Conservative leadership contender Jeremy Hunt angered and alarmed fellow MPs and party
members during a television interview yesterday by revealing he would actively pursue a
'No Deal' Brexit if a new deal couldn't be negotiated between the UK and the EU.

Speaking to Andrew Marr on BBC One, Hunt stated there was a "democratic promise"
in place, but incurred further ire when asked how he would defend No Deal. When asked if
he would look those who had lost out in the eye and tell them No Deal was worth it, Hunt said:
“I would do so but I’d do it with a heavy heart precisely because of the risks.”

Hunt is the underdog of the two remaining candidates, trailing Boris Johnson significantly, but
both candidates are feeling the strain. Boris Johnson recently experienced a torrid time on Talk
Radio answering phone-in questions, before engaging in a surreal one-on-one interview where
he admitted he has a hobby of painting cardboard buses. Sceptics have pointed out that this
bizarre admission might have been an act of guerilla SEO; a clickbait story or subject that dramatically
alters what is searched for in the likes of Google or Bing. In the case of buses, Boris Johnson had
been long tied to the claims of £350 million a week saved by leaving the European Union - a claim
since revealed to be false.

Johnson has also failed to refuse proroguing Parliament - despite saying he would not wish to - on
the basis that he wants to use the option as leverage in negotiations. This makes sense logically, but
would be a serious breach of parliamentary trust and ethics if done - effectively overruling the will of
the Commons.

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Friday 21st June

The race to become the new Prime Minister has been narrowed down to two candidates, as the
final round of the Conservative leadership contest has begun. Following a series of votes this week
amongst Conservative MPs, the choice now comes down to two; Boris Johnson, and Jeremy Hunt.

Yesterday saw both Sajid Javid and Michael Gove eliminated, in votes that some have now claimed
to have been tactically manipulated. Many Boris supporters saw Gove as a more difficult opponent
for their candidate to beat, and there are claims that some may have voted for Hunt in order to push
Gove into third place. Hunt is seen as less of a threat to Johnson, given he voted remain in the Brexit
referendum.

The two will now battle it out in the final stage of the contest, which will see both MPs and Conservative
Party members vote on their preferred candidate, and the results will not be announced until the
week of July 22nd.

Boris Johnson is still largely considered the favourite, as has won every round by a significant margin.
In yesterday’s vote he secured more than half the votes, and is a favourite amongst Brexit supporters.

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Jeremy Hunt will face the difficult task of convincing both Conservative MPs, and the Party
membership at large, that he can overcome the difficulties faced by Theresa May for the past
three years. Even if everyone who voted for Gove now switched to Hunt, it would still be
insufficient to beat Johnson, and some fear the task may be insurmountable.

Hunt seems aware of the difficulty of the task, calling himself the “underdog”, but with over
100,000 party members now included in the votes, it could turn in Hunt’s favour.

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The two will now be campaigning amongst party members in an attempt to secure the votes they need.
Both have said they will leave with no-deal if that is the best option they can secure, and by the time one
is named PM, Parliament will be about to break for summer. Returning on 4th September, this will leave
approximately eight weeks for any further deals to be negotiated in the House; a tight deadline considering
the progress made in the last three weeks. With the deadline of October 31st looming over them, will
either one be able to convince Parliament to back a new deal? Or will time run out and the UK crash out
with no deal?
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Tuesday 28th May

The future of Brexit has been thrown into chaos this weekend, following the resignation of Theresa
May on Friday, and the results of Thursday’s European elections. The political landscape has seen
significant, if not unexpected, shifts during the past five days, and investor confidence is shaken.
May has been a difficult month for the Pound, with highs against the US Dollar of $1.31 at the start
of the month, before crashing down for $1.26 as news of the PM’s resignation surfaced. Gold has
enjoyed the benefits though, rising above £1,015 per ounce on Friday.

May will resign as Conservative party leader on June 7th, but remain as Prime Minister until a new
leader has been selected. With Boris Johnson the current favourite to become the UK’s new PM,
investors are worried whether the Brexiteer could seek a no-deal Brexit rather than ‘softer’ options
such as a customs union.

Whether any new leader can break the stalemate that has plagued Theresa May for the past year,
remains to be seen.

The weekend saw the results of Thursday’s European elections announced and, as feared by many
Conservative MPs, the Brexit Party saw huge gains at their expense.
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Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party were clear winners; with 29 MEPs elected, and a 31.6% vote share. The Conservatives came fifth with only four MEPs and less than 10% of the national vote share. Although the results come as no surprise for Conservatives, it is an historic defeat, and hugely embarrassing to the current government. The frustration felt by Leave voters at the inability to deliver Brexit, has seen them flock to the new Brexit Party in protest.

Labour did not escape unscathed either, ending in third place, with only ten MEPs – a 50% loss from the previous elections. The Liberal Democrats and Greens both took voters from Labour, with the Lib Dems jumping to a surprise second place. Labour's position on Brexit has been blamed, with the unclear policy on a second referendum driving remain voters to alternative parties with clearer intentions.

Although the powers of MEPs are limited – especially given Brexit is currently scheduled to happen by October 31st at the latest – but the results are seen as a demonstration of opinion. Voters have used the opportunity to make their voices heard on what they want to happen next.

The surge of the Brexit Party will put pressure on the next Conservative leader to try and regain the trust of disillusioned Leave voters. Calls for a General Election to break the deadlock are growing, but it seems unlikely the new PM will risk such a move. Leader hopeful, Jeremy Hunt, wrote in The Daily Telegraph that holding a general election before Brexit is complete would see the Conservatives “annihilated”.

Between the leadership selection process, and summer recesses, the new Prime Minister will need to act quickly to secure their Brexit vision before October’s deadline, and the economic uncertainty seems set to drag on for the months to come.

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Wednesday 22nd May

Theresa May will speak to MPs in the Commons today to offer a range of concessions on the Brexit
deal, including a vote on whether or not to hold a second Brexit referendum. Despite support from
senior MPs such as Michael Gove, the move has been criticised by many in the House.

Labour’s shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer described the offer as “too weak”, telling BBC Radio 4’s
Today programme that MPs already had the power to take a vote on a second referendum and other
options through amendments to the Withdrawal Agreement.

The proposals from the PM are:

  • A Commons vote on holding a second referendum, based on the government’s Brexit deal
  • A vote on varying Customs Union agreements as a Brexit compromise
  • Legislation enshrining workers’ rights to be as good or better than before, post-Brexit, with
    no weakening of environmental rules in the process.
  • An obligation to replace the Northern Ireland backstop by the end of 2020.
  • A second obligation that, if the backstop is not enacted, Northern Ireland would remain in
    line with the UK as a customs territory.
  • A duty to challenge the political declaration regarding future EU relations.

Conservative backbenchers also are believed to be challenging the PM via the 1922 Committee,
with Nigel Evans (pictured right) keen for the group to change its policy of one No Confidence vote
a year to see if Tory MPs can’t force Theresa May out of office.

Boris Johnson, the favourite to replace Mrs May as party leader and Prime Minister, took to Twitter
to criticise the move, saying: "We are being asked to vote for a customs union and a second
referendum. The Bill is directly against our manifesto - and I will not vote for it.

"We can and must do better - and deliver what the people voted for."

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Friday 17th May

Cross party talks between the government and the main opposition are set to come to an end,
after six weeks of private discussions trying to reach a compromise that will garner a
parliamentary majority.

Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn had met on a few occasions, while Keir Starmer, Stephen Barclay,
and the respective Brexit teams had dealt with the majority of the discussions.

The news comes two days after the Prime Minister announced plans for the next Brexit vote,
and just one day after the rumour mill got into full swing about who will replace Theresa May
as Conservative leader and Prime Minister.

In response, the Pound has dropped below $1.28 for the first time in four months - currently
sitting at $1.277. The combination of the breakdown in talks and the change of Prime Minister
has investors worried, and once again (at least in the short-term) the UK economy is out of
favour.

Boris Johnson is the latest Tory MP to confirm he will run for the leadership, with Esther McVey
and Rory Stewart also in contention. Andrea Leadsom is reportedly weighing up her options,
having competed against Theresa May in the last leadership contest, and there are strong
rumours that the likes of Liz Truss, Sajid Javid, Dominic Raab, Penny Mordaunt, Michael Gove,
Amber Rudd, and Jeremy Hunt will also jump into the fray.

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Wednesday 15th May

Prime Minister Theresa May

Theresa May has announced plans to have a full vote on the Brexit bill – encompassing both
the Withdrawal Agreement and action to be taken afterwards – for the first week of June.

The announcement is an attempt by the PM to speed up negotiations with Labour, and to find
Brexit resolution before the summer recess from Parliament, though a Labour spokeswoman
told reporters that Jeremy Corbyn has “raised doubts over the credibility of government
commitments” – a reference to the potential change of leadership in the Conservative Party.

The voting would be a matter of days after the European elections however and would also fall
on the same week as President Trump’s state visit. Damian Hinds, the Education Secretary, put
it mildly when he described the combination as a “difficult” moment.

The Guardian newspaper believes that Theresa May’s decision to set a vote date helps fend off
any immediate vote of no confidence, but The Times warn that another defeat would be game
over for the PM. Norman Smith of the BBC had this to say on Twitter this morning:

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Tuesday 30th April

The latest polling by YouGov has the new Brexit Party, led by former UKIP leader Nigel Farage,
as the likely winning party from the UK in the European parliamentary elections.

The survey from April 23rd to April 26th put the Brexit Party at 28% of the vote, with Labour
in second place on 22%. The Conservatives were third on 13%, while the new Change UK
party were tied in a close fourth spot with the Greens on 10%.

Earlier in April, Opinium had Labour clearly in front on 29% but the combined UKIP/BP vote was
worth a combined 25%. Over the past month that UKIP vote has been absorbed for the most part
by the Brexit Party, while Labour's lead has been reigned back by the arrival of Change UK (The
Independent Group) and, somewhat surprisingly, a spur of interest for the Green Party over the
more traditional candidates of the Lib Dems.

The change in fortunes for the Brexit Party has been remarkable, but not entirely surprising given
the way that Brexit has come to dominate British politics. With under a month to go until the
European elections, expect more polls and fluctuations as the Commons resumes debating the
current Withdrawal Agreement.

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Thursday 25th April

Theresa May has survived another leadership challenge, as senior Conservatives ruled out
an attempt to change party rules. Currently, the party cannot hold more than one no-confidence
vote on a leader within a twelve month period. Having survived such a vote last year, the
PM should be protected until December of this year. Some Conservatives – unhappy with
May’s handling of Brexit, and her decision to hold cross-party talks with Labour – had hoped
to change the rules, allowing them to hold a new vote now.

Having met Tuesday and Wednesday, the 1922 Committee decided that the rules should remain
the same. The news was not all good for the Prime Minister though; MPs have called for the PM
to make her future leadership plans clear. Having already promised to go once a deal was
approved, some Conservative MPs are now demanding a clear roadmap for when she steps aside.
Whether she will give in to these demands remains to be seen.

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Of worry for the Prime Minister will also be the news that the Clwyd South Conservative Association
has passed a, non-binding, no-confidence vote against her – with only a small 3.7% voting in support
of May.

Between a strengthened dollar and continuing Brexit fatigue, the Pound Sterling has had a poor
performance this week; dropping two cents to $1.288. Gold, in response, has enjoyed a price rise of
almost £10 per ounce in just the past 24 hours.

Rumours in Westminster suggest that the PM is considering another Commons vote on her Brexit
deal next week; potentially with the Irish Backstop removed in the hopes of finally pushing it through.
Theresa May has already expressed her frustration at the Brexit delay, and has stated her hope of a
Brexit deal being passed before the UK is required to hold elections on MEPs.

Considering the lack of progress made in cross-party talks though, it is difficult to see what might
change MPs minds if they are asked to vote next week.
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Monday 15th April

The price of gold dropped today to £978.18 per ounce as the threat of a no-deal Brexit
continues to shrink. UK businesses however are still reporting a gloomy outlook on the
back of continued delays to Brexit. Deloitte reports that over 80% of chief financial officers,
across a range of FTSE 100 and 250 companies, believe that Brexit will lead to a long-term
negative impact on business in the UK.

Although the Government has shown a willingness to compromise, UK businesses still
remain unwilling to trust given the already lengthy Brexit process, that is now dragging
on longer than expected. Pessimism continues with many saying that they are reducing
recruitment while Brexit continues. Morgan McKinley has found that job vacancies in
London’s financial industry have halved in the two years since the referendum.

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Talks between Conservatives and Labour representatives are continuing while Parliament
is on a break for Easter. David Lidington – who is leading the talks on behalf of the
government – has expressed his hope that, when Parliament returns from the Easter break,
they will be able to “take stock”. Although no firm date has apparently been set for talks to
be concluded, whether successfully or not, the May elections are considered a key date by
the Conservatives to avoid.

Jeremy Hunt, speaking while visiting Japan, has said that reaching an agreement before
23rd May is an ‘absolute priority’ in order to avoid European Polls. The Foreign Secretary
has stated the public would be frustrated if asked to vote on MEPs next month, and that
it could be a polling disaster for the Conservatives.

So far though, news from cross-party talks has suggested that there are still key
differences that are yet to be overcome. Labour meanwhile might be in less of a rush,
as polling suggests that they have gained support in the upcoming Council – and
potential MEP – elections. With a new deadline of October 31st, the uncertainty could
continue for some time.
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Thursday 11th April

After five hours of discussions last night, the EU has agreed to allow another Brexit extension up
to October 31st of this year.

Theresa May spent one hour arguing for a delay up to June 30th but, as expected, the EU rejected
this in favour of a later deadline. The news came late last night that a six month delay would be
granted to allow Parliament more time for a decision to be reached. The UK will however be
allowed to leave at any point before this date, should MPs come to an agreement.

The delay was expected to be longer, potentially up to a year, but French President Emmanuel
Macron was said to be stubborn in his demands for a much shorter delay. In the end a
compromise of six months was agreed and the 31st October date set.

Donald Tusk’s parting statement to the UK was to “not waste this time”. The Prime Minister
is due to make a statement in the House of Commons today regarding last night’s decision
and its implications.

The delay means that the UK will now be required to hold elections for European MPs next
month. If MEPs are not elected by 23rd May, then the UK will leave the EU on 1st June
without a deal. As such the PM is expected to include a decision on MEP elections during
today’s statement.

Reaction has been mixed with many happy that a no-deal has once again been avoided,
and others disappointed by the continued delay. Brexit Coordinator, Guy Verhofstadt, has
summed up some of the options now facing MPs.

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Parliament is due to break for Easter recess, but it is expected that cross-party talks between
Conservatives and Labour will continue during this period. A cross-party agreement seems to
be the current target, but with more time now granted other options – such as another
referendum – are being brought up once more by MPs.

Conservative MPs have raised further calls for the PM to resign given her failure to deliver
Brexit on time. Former Brexit secretary David Davis has said it is “difficult” to imagine Theresa
May still being leader by the party’s conference in September. Theresa May however seems
set to try and cling to power, at least until the Withdrawal Agreement has been ratified. After
this she has already stated her intention to step aside.

The fear is that the new delay could simply see the current stalemate drag on for six months
until the Halloween deadline is reached once more. The urgency of the past month has now
abated, and without it the divisions of Parliament may once more rise to the surface.

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Thursday 4th April

In a jam-packed day of business for the House of Commons, MPs debated and voted from
mid-afternoon until the early hours of this morning, with opposition MPs keen to rapidly push
through Yvette Cooper's Article 50 extension bill in record time.

The first Commons vote of the day was an historic occasion, with the House tied at 310 votes
either side on the subject of another round of indicative votes. As such, the deciding vote
went to the Speaker, John Bercow, who sided (as per tradition) with the Noes.

The second vote was for the Second Reading of Cooper's bill, which passed by 315 to 310 and
progressed to the Third Reading, which came later that night.

Before then were the amendments:

  • Amendment 21: The Prime Minister would not be required to put the EU's extension
    offer/date to MPs. The amendment was defeated by 313 votes to 304.
  • Amendment 22: The European Union (Withdrawal) (No. 5) Bill, as proposed by Yvette
    Cooper, would not limit the government's power in deciding how to seek an extension
    to Article 50. The amendment was defeated by 400 votes to 220 - a 180 vote majority
    and the second biggest defeat in modern parliamentary history.

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  • Amendment 1: Conservative MP Anne Main proposed a limit to the time length of the
    extension to Article 50. The amendment was defeated by 488 votes to 123 - a majority
    of 365.
  • Clause 4: Proposal by Sir Bill Cash to prevent amendments to standing orders (procedural
    rules) during the motion on the Article 50 extension. The clause proposal was defeated by
    509 votes to 105 - a majority of 404.

The final vote of the evening was on the European Union (Withdrawal) (No. 5) Bill: Third Reading.
A tight 5-vote majority earlier on became even tighter, with the Labour MP's proposed bill
passing by just one vote at the end of the night - 313 votes to 312. The bill now moves on to
the House of Lords for approval, which typically happens before the Third Reading but in this
case was switched around due to prior commitments in the upper chamber of Parliament.

If the Lords approve the bill then the government and Theresa May will be expected to approach
the EU leaders and request another extension to Brexit, though whether they get one - and how
long they get - is an entirely different matter.

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Wednesday 3rd April

After hours of talks with her cabinet, Prime Minister Theresa May has announced
she will meet with Labour party leader Jeremy Corbyn in a final attempt to break
the Brexit deadlock.

The two are expected to meet this afternoon to discuss a compromise that could
bring the two parties together and see an agreement reached over the future of
Brexit. With the PM’s Withdrawal Agreement defeated again last week by a large
margin, it seems May has accepted that she cannot find a majority before the
April 12th deadline.

She announced in a statement last night that she will seek another small extension
from the EU in order to meet with Corbyn and put a new Brexit agreement before
Parliament by April 10th, in time for the EU’s emergency Brexit summit.

The decision to meet with Corbyn signifies that the PM may be willing to accept a
‘softer’ Brexit. Labour have made it clear that a customs union and workers’ rights
are both high priorities, and a customs union was the closest option to reaching a
majority in Parliament during last weeks series of indicative votes.

Conservative Brexiteers have been critical of the decision, believing a customs
union to be a defeat and betrayal of Brexit. Jacob Rees-Mogg called the offer
‘deeply unsatisfactory’, while Boris Johnson has also said the PM’s decision is
‘very disappointing.’

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Theresa May will likely be betting that the Conservative MP’s whose votes she now
loses, will be more than made up for if she can reach a deal with Labour and gain
their support. With her resignation to come, should a deal be reached, then it seems
likely she has made the decision to get a deal through at the expense of party unity.

With the UK set to leave the EU next Friday time is running very short and the extension
from the EU will likely be necessary for a deal to be struck, debated, voted upon and
potentially passed.

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Tuesday 2nd April

MPs once again failed to secure a Commons majority in favour of an alternative direction for Brexit, after several hours of parliamentary debate. All four amendments chosen for the voting by the Speaker of the House were defeated, leaving the UK in continued Brexit limbo.

Last Wednesday's best chance, the Customs Union motion from Ken Clarke, came closest to passing but still lost by 3 votes. Nick Boles, who put forward the Common Market 2.0, saw his proposal defeat too, and resigned from the Conservative Party in protest.

The EU's Chief Negotiator, Michel Barnier, admitted today that a No Deal outcome is now more likely, but still held out hope that the UK could reach an agreement that would be less damaging to both parties. Today the Pound is at $1.306 and €1.166 respectively, having been a cent higher before the last night's voting took place. Gold is down almost 1.5% in the past week, but has steadied around £985 per ounce over the past few days.

Today the Prime Minister Theresa May is meeting with Cabinet members in a lengthy three and a half hour session (that was originally to be five hours long). Brexit is to be heavily discussed, with strong rumours that the PM will push forward with a fourth vote on her deal - though it is unclear whether it would be on the full Withdrawal Agreement or just the initialisation as was last voted on.

Another point that has been discussed is a confidence motion approach, with the PM offering an ultimatum - back my deal or suffer a General Election. This is a risk for the Conservatives, who were polled by the Mail on Sunday this weekend as being five points behind Labour at present, and senior MPs such as David Davis have warned Theresa May that such a move will still have several Tory MPs voting against her Brexit deal - whatever the consequences.

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Friday 29th March

Theresa May’s Withdrawal Agreement has been defeated for a third, and perhaps final, time
this afternoon. The government had hoped that, by separating the Withdrawal Agreement
from the political declaration on the future relationship, enough support could be garnered for
at least the first half of the Brexit deal to pass.

The morning and early afternoon were spent in heated debate, as MPs across the House
claimed the PM was resorting to a desperate attempt to pass a deal that would blindfold
politicians over future negotiations.

Early reports had suggested that the voting would be close; several MPs had declared their
intent to switch to supporting the PM, with the ERG and prominent Brexit supporters – such
as Boris Johnson – announcing their begrudging support of the deal. Some Labour MPs,
most of whom represented constituencies that voted Leave, had also suggested they would
defy their party lines to vote with the government.

In the end though, the result was a defeat of 58 votes; a larger gap than expected, showing
the division amongst the conservative party.

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With the divide so large it seems unlikely that the deal will continue to be considered as
an option. Theresa May herself has said that the defeat is a “matter of profound regret”
and that she fears “we are reaching the limits of this process in the House.” This refers
to the fact that without a deal the UK must now either leave the EU on April 12th without
a deal, cancel Brexit, or request another extension (something that could be opposed by
EU leaders).

In light of today’s defeat, the President of the European Council - Donald Tusk - has called
a European Council on April 10th with the intention of deciding the stance of the EU.

A cross-party group of MPs has tabled a motion on Monday to debate, and potentially
vote on, a ‘Common Market 2.0’. With a mixture of some of the more popular points
from Wednesday’s indicative votes, including Ken Clarke’s narrowly defeated motion,
this could gain a small majority. Should it gain a consensus then it remains to be seen
if Theresa May will ratify the deal in the face of today’s loss.

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Thursday 28th March

While speaking at the 1922 committee yesterday evening Theresa May has agreed to resign as
Prime Minister, if her Withdrawal Agreement passes through Parliament. If MPs back her twice-
defeated Brexit deal, then the PM has said she will stand down and allow new leadership to take
over negotiations during the next stages.

The Government is now scrambling to see if the PM’s deal can be put before Parliament a third
time, and if enough support can be garnered. The DUP continues to be a thorn in the PM’s side
however, stating that they will not support the deal, which in turn means the ERG will also vote
against the deal.

In a day of further confusion in London, MPs held indicative votes last night on eight possible
next- steps for Brexit – failing to reach a majority for any of them.

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The most popular deal was Ken Clarke’s customs union; at 264 votes in favour – to 272
against. MPs were quick to point out that popular votes could be brought back next
week and voted on following further debate with a more focused attention. With only
eight votes required to change the result the Independent Group or DUP could be enough
to tip the scales.

If the deal passes however the Government is still not required to follow the wishes of
Parliament. With stalemate continuing the UK is still set to leave the EU on April 12th
without a deal, or a revocation of Article 50 (although this option lost by over 100 votes
last night). Tomorrow could see the PM’s deal brought back a third time; but having lost
by 149 votes earlier this month she faces a tall order to finally get the majority she needs,
and could pay the price of losing her premiership to obtain it.

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Tuesday 26th March

Parliament has moved towards taking control of the next-steps for Brexit, after MPs voted
last night by 329 to 302 to hold ‘indicative’ votes this week. Wednesday will now see Parliament
debate and vote on a number of amendments to see if a way forward can reach a majority. In
a show of continued defiance however, Prime Minister Theresa May has said she cannot commit
to upholding the agreement (should one be reached), stating that "The votes could lead to
an outcome that is un-negotiable with the EU," and refusing to give a ‘blank cheque’ to Parliament.

The news has seen Conservative Brexiteers, such as Jacob Rees-Mogg, revert their stances to
now support the PM’s Withdrawal Agreement, despite voting against it twice. With the mood
in Parliament already clearly against no-deal, and a risk to any Brexit at all growing, support
appears to be returning to the PM, if somewhat begrudgingly.

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The DUP meanwhile has stated that their stance remains unchanged, and they will not
be supporting the PM’s deal. Without the DUP’s support it is unlikely that Theresa May
will be able to get her deal through Parliament.

MPs can now table options to be debated and voted on, with some of the more popular
options including: softer Brexit (remaining in the Customs Union), a second referendum
or revoking Article 50.

Calls for the PM to resign continue, with some hoping for a snap election in order to
redress the balance in Parliament and break the stalemate. Anything that requires a
further delay however will need to be agreed with Europe, who have currently set the
Brexit deadline to April 12th - should the UK be unable to reach an agreement. This will
also require the UK to take part in European elections.

The confusion of the past few weeks seems set to continue. Although votes will be
held it still remains to be seen if MPs can agree on a way forward, and if they do,
whether their decision will be honoured.
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Friday 22nd March

The EU has agreed to delay Brexit following late night debates yesterday. In a blow
to Theresa May, control was taken from the Prime Minister over the issue of dates,
placing more immediate pressure on MPs in Parliament to reach an agreement.

The PM had requested a delay until June 30th but the EU has now specified two
possible dates for the UK to leave the EU. This first key date will be April 12th – if a
deal is not approved in the immediate future then Britain will be forced to either leave
the EU with no deal, or to revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit. If, however, Parliament
reaches a decision soon, then the UK will be granted until May 22nd to complete the
process of leaving.

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There is still room for a longer Brexit delay beyond the end of the year in the event that
the Parliamentary impasse continues, and the likelihood of Theresa May’s continued
premiership shrinks.

Although a no-deal Brexit has for now been avoided, there seems to be nothing else
that MPs can agree upon and, with only a short extension granted so far, there is little
time for a decision to be made. The Pound has fluctuated in the last hour against both
the Dollar and the Euro, while gold is hovering either side of the £1000 per ounce mark.

UK MPs have been commenting on the very low likelihood of Theresa May’s deal being
approved in a third meaningful vote next week, if Speaker John Bercow allows it to be
heard in the first place. Rumours now suggest that MPs will be given the opportunity to
take part in indicative votes on Brexit, with a number of options on the table including:
May’s deal, no Brexit, a second referendum, or a softer Brexit with a customs union –
as proposed by Labour to mirror Norway’s model of trade with Europe.

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Fresh calls for Theresa May to resign have been made as she sacrifices more power
to the EU over the delay, with Mark Francois telling news reporters that he doesn’t
believe the PM will be in power come the April deadline, and other Conservative MPs
touting David Liddington – her de facto deputy – as a temporary successor acting on
behalf of a technical national government until Brexit is resolved.

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Thursday 21st March

In a hastily-arranged speech at No10 Downing Street last night, the Prime Minister expressed her sympathy for the ‘tired’ British public and laid the blame for any Brexit confusion and delay at the feet of fellow MPs.

Speaking just after 8pm last night, May said “Parliament has done everything possible to avoid making a choice. All MPs have been willing to say is what they do not want.”

Ministers reacted angrily to the PM’s claims, lining up to criticise Theresa May. Conservative MP Dominic Grieve told the Victoria Derbyshire show that May’s speech encouraged the public to “vilify” MPs, while others took to Twitter to express their unhappiness:

Earlier the PM issued a request to extend the Brexit deadline from the end of this month to the end of June, with the EU Council President Donald Tusk saying that a short extension could be granted if the House of Commons backed May’s deal by the end of next week.

The ultimatum from the EU brought back the threat of a No Deal Brexit, which caused the Pound to drop to a week low of $1.314 and €1.153 respectively. The price of gold has risen in response to a little over £1,000 per ounce, having been as low as £984.36 yesterday.

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Wednesday 20th March

Prime Minister Theresa May has today announced that she has written to EU President
Donald Tusk to formally request a delay to Brexit, up to 30th June. During a heated Prime
Minister’s Questions, May has stated that she is not prepared to delay beyond this date,
prompting commentators to speculate she could resign if Brexit should lag beyond
this date.

The European Commission has however stated that June 30th is too late if the UK
does not wish to take part in EU elections, which start 23rd May. This is something
that has previously been considered unreasonable given the expense, and irony, of
electing MEPs prior to Brexit’s completion.

Opposition leader, Jeremy Corbyn, has criticised the PM’s leadership once again,
accusing her of running the clock in a continued attempt to force her deal through
Parliament and causing chaos, and asked her once again to meet with him for
discussions over the next steps.

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If the EU should refuse the PM’s request for an extension, then legally Britain would still be
required to leave the EU on March 29th, just nine short days from today. With opinion still
largely divided across the house, a longer delay might be necessary for a final decision to be
made, but it is unclear what impact that delay could have on the current political landscape.

Update: The Prime Minister will reportedly meet with opposition leaders from both sides of
the political spectrum later today in order to discuss the delay to Brexit.
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Tuesday 19th March

Speaker of the House John Bercow yesterday ruled that the government and Theresa
May could not bring back the Withdrawal Agreement for a third meaningful vote this
week if the deal had not been altered in anyway.

Bercow made the announcement in the Commons yesterday afternoon, before taking a
series of Points of Order from MPs across the House in order to offer clarification on the
reasoning.

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The Speaker cited protocol from A Treatise upon the Law, Privileges, Proceedings and
Usage of Parliament . Erskine May, a 19th century clerk of the Commons, compiled the
book and documented protocol and rulings dating back hundreds of years prior. The ruling
used by John Bercow dates back to 1604 and states that MPs can’t vote on an identical
motion or matter twice in the same parliamentary session. The potential for such a move
was discussed last week but the Speaker’s actions were still a surprise – with no advance
notice or warning for the government.

With just 10 days left until the official leaving date for the UK from the EU, the national
newspapers took a dim view on Bercow’s ruling.

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The government has expressed its disappointment in the Speaker’s decision, with several
MPs in the Commons using Points of Order to quiz and criticise Mr Bercow for his actions.
Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay spoke to BBC Radio 4’s Today programme this morning
and insisted that while the government respected Mr Bercow’s refereeing, it would seek to
pursue a third vote on the Brexit deal, though Mr Barclay did confirm that an extension to
Article 50 will now be necessary

It is expected that Theresa May will seek this on behalf of Parliament while attending the
EU Summit in Brussels at the end of the week. The EU are rumoured to be willing to offer
the UK a new leave date of July 1st, with the offer open until March 29th so that Parliament
can debate the new arrangement and also negate Mr Bercow’s ruling on a changed Brexit deal.

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Friday 15th March 2019

Parliament agreed last night to delay Brexit by three months or more in order to
try and reach an agreement over how Britain should leave the EU. With a
majority of 413 to 202 votes, there was a clear consensus that MPs want more
time for debate in an attempt to decide what shape Brexit should take in the future.

An extension to Article 50’s deadline of March 29th must now be requested by
Theresa May. She will put this request forward to the EU Council, likely on the
21st or 22nd March, when a leaders’ summit is already scheduled. If she can
get the unanimous agreement of all 27 other EU countries, then the delay can
go ahead. Some EU leaders have already suggested this might not be a simple
matter however and that, unless they can see a good reason for the delay, they
might block it.

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In an attempt to avoid needing to request an extension at the EU summit at
the end of next week, the Prime Minister has confirmed that she will put her
withdrawal agreement before the House a third time by March 20th. Although
Conservative and DUP ministers are still seeking legal assurances on the Irish
backstop, it seems the short timeline will make any significant changes unlikely.
Instead the PM will be hoping that the threat of a delay, and threat of no-Brexit,
will bring Brexiteer MPs such as the ERG into line. After the defeat of 149 votes
on Tuesday night though it will require some significant changes in opinion to
get the deal approved.

The lack of significant decisions has seen the Pound remain fairly steady, with
gold also hovering around the £980 per ounce mark. If a delay is approved next
week then the uncertainty will likely continue on for some time, but for now
Sterling is holding its own against the Dollar and Euro.

Thursday 14th March 2019

Amidst a chaotic night in the House of Commons the threat of no-deal Brexit was
seemingly taken off the table, only to be returned once more.

Despite suggesting earlier in the day that Conservative MPs would be given a free
vote, the government decided to whip the party to vote against their own deal in a
bid to keep no-deal an option, following the success of Amendment A – an
alteration tabled by Dame Caroline Spelman, Yvette Cooper, and other ministers
across the House.

The whip was unsuccessful however and, in another sign of Theresa May’s
continuing erosion of authority, thirteen ministers abstained. Sarah Newton
(Work and Pensions minister) voted against the whip and has since resigned.

At the conclusion of the vote it seemed that no-deal was almost certainly dead
in the water, and markets responded accordingly. The Pound Sterling rose to a
peak of $1.33 shortly after the results were announced and gold slipped below
the £980 per ounce mark. Gold has dipped in the past day in both Pounds and
Dollars, but the gains in the Pound brought about by the Brexit drama has seen
the gold price drop by 1.66% compared to the Dollar’s 0.85%.

Adding fresh confusion however was the news that last night’s vote was
non-binding, meaning it did not rule out a no-deal at all. Theresa May is hoping
to get her Withdrawal Agreement passed in a third vote next week, despite having
been defeated twice already. Mrs. May said: “The legal default in EU and UK law is
that the UK will leave without a deal unless something else is agreed.”

Putting the deal before parliament a third time, and without the time to make any
significant changes, has drawn further criticism of the PM. Speaker John Bercow
has even suggested that he could block the motion, ruling it ‘not responding to the
will of the House.’

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With no-deal seemingly still a possibility, MPs will this afternoon vote on delaying the
deadline of March 29th for Article 50, deciding terms and the length of the extension.
The rumours currently circulating in Brussels and London are that Donald Tusk will
offer Theresa May an additional four years to resolve Brexit.

Once again, the PM has suggested that MPs will be given a free vote but with
amendments to be tabled this afternoon, and the change of position yesterday
this could change.

Even if a delay is agreed upon today the EU could still block it if they deem it as simply
wasting time rather than a concerted effort to get a deal in place. Until a delay is
agreed in parliament, and then approved by the EU, the deadline of March 29th and a
no-deal Brexit is still on the horizon.

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Wednesday 13th March 2019

The UK government suffered another sizeable defeat last night as MPs voted 391 to 242 against Theresa May's Brexit deal - the second time the PM's Withdrawal Agreement with the EU had been rejected by the House of Commons.

Newspaper coverage (above) has been critical of both the Prime Minister for her weak deal, with some rubbishing MPs across Parliament for the continued stalemate. Bookmakers have a No Deal Brexit at 7/2 odds, while a second referendum/People's Vote is at 11/5.

The order of business for the House today is Prime Minister's Questions at noon, followed by the Spring Statement from Chancellor Philip Hammond at 12:30pm, before the Commons turns to the No Deal discussions this afternoon and voting on the proposal this evening. The current motion from the government says:

That this House declines to approve leaving the European Union without a Withdrawal Agreement and a Framework for the Future Relationship on 29 March 2019; and notes that leaving without a deal remains the default in UK and EU law unless this House and the EU ratify an agreement.

MPs on all sides have criticised the double-negative nature of the motion, with a raft of amendments tabled to adjust the statement. The chief one is led by Dame Caroline Spelman, which alters the text to state that the House " rejects the United Kingdom leaving the European Union without a Withdrawal Agreement and a Framework for the Future Relationship.” Five other amendments are tabled for the Speaker to decide on, including amendments from the devolved governments of Scotland and Wales.

Tomorrow's vote will be on whether to extend Article 50 and delay Brexit to allow for proper resolution, but EU officials including Michel Barnier have warned the UK government that even with Parliamentary approval, the European Union cannot grant the extension without a clear purpose for it and a plan of action for the UK's withdrawal - something the government has yet to achieve.

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Thursday 7th March 2019

Geoffrey Cox Attorney General

The EU has told the UK government that it has 48 hours to put forward new, serious
proposals for Brexit if the Prime Minister wants to present fresh progress to the
Commons ready for Tuesday’s meaningful vote on the Withdrawal Act.

Earlier this week a negotiating team led by Attorney General Geoffrey Cox and Brexit
Secretary Stephen Barclay went to Brussels to discuss the Irish backstop further, but
their talks – reported as three hours long – were fruitless.

Since then, EU officials have said they would be willing to work over the weekend to
respond to a proposal from the UK if such a plan was presented and had rough
consensus to make progress in Parliament. The Telegraph is reporting that Theresa
May might consider a Commons speech tomorrow to try and persuade MPs to concede
on her Brexit deal, though given her pleas have fallen on deaf ears to date, this might
seem an unlikely plan.

The Conservative government is currently expected to lose Tuesday’s vote, with talk
already underway about extending Article 50 through a vote on Thursday and tabling
a third meaningful vote in the coming weeks. Chancellor Philip Hammond has been
on BBC Radio 4 this morning arguing that fellow Tory MPs should back the PM’s
proposals or risk a delay to Brexit – and the potential for no Brexit at all.

One growing rumour is that Wednesday’s formal vote on whether to permit a no-deal
Brexit may be pulled, but as Labour MP Yvette Cooper pointed out on Twitter, the plan
to have three days of voting was put forward by May and voted on by MPs in the chamber,
meaning it should effectively be set in stone.

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Former Conservative MP Anna Soubry, now a member of The Independent Group (TIG),
suggested that her independent colleagues would also like a meeting with Corbyn to
discuss the People’s Vote aka a second referendum, though many users on social media
sites pointed out that Ms Soubry already voted against a second referendum in the
Commons at the end of January and, despite her vote of no-confidence in Theresa May,
voted to support the government in their no-confidence vote.

The next Brexit business is a meeting today between Stephen Barclay and Nathalie Loiseau,
the Europe Minister for France. The pair will meet in London to work on proposals to tackle
to ongoing uncertainty for the UK and Europe, as well as the impasse currently felt in Parliament.

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Monday 4th March 2019

high street closed shops closure

Theresa may has announced a post-Brexit fund of £1.6bn to be given to ‘poorer’ towns
across Britain. The money will be distributed over the next seven years across the UK,
but the Midlands and northern towns will see a bigger share. The Prime Minister has
stated that the UK’s wealth has been “unfairly spread” and that this fund will help redress
the balance.

Opposition MPs have called the move a cynical attempt to gain further support in the lead
up to the PM’s key votes on Brexit next week, with shadow chancellor John McDonnell
calling the move a desperate bribe.

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The amount of money has also been ridiculed as “measly” and “a drop in the ocean” by
MPs, who claim that cuts made during austerity - and the money lost by Brexit – are far
outweighed by this newly offered fund.

In other Brexit news, Conservative backbenchers and members of the European Research
Group have this weekend signalled a shift in their opinions. After previously ruling out their
support for the PM they have now set three ‘tests’ that, if met, would mean they will support
the withdrawal agreement ahead of next week’s votes.

With a Brexit delay now gaining traction and Labour pushing for a second referendum, pro-
Brexit ministers see the likelihood of a no-deal disappearing and the best chance of Brexit
going ahead is to ensure that the Withdrawal agreement passes next week.

Thursday 28th February 2019

Yvette Cooper MP Labour

The third 'Next Step' vote was held yesterday evening following earlier promises from
the Prime Minister that there would be a 'meaningful' vote mid-March, with backup
votes should the PM be defeated again.

The surprise of the night was the Cooper Amendment (originally the Cooper/Letwin
Amendment) which won by 502 votes to 20. The vote was led by the opposition but in
effect reiterated the Prime Minister's position, leading to confusion amongst MPs about
which way to vote.

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20 Conservative MPs voted against the motion and the Prime Minister herself, with a
further 88 Tories, 10 Labour MPs, and 9 DUP ministers all abstaining on the vote. The
result is rather long winded, but it means that if Parliament 1) votes down May's deal
on March 12, 2) votes down no-deal on March 13, and 3) votes for an extension to
Article 50 on March 14 then the Prime Minister and the government have no choice but
to do as the House bids and apply to the European Union to extend Article 50 and move
the UK's exit date.

Speaker John Bercow selected five amendments to the Withdrawal Act:

  • Amendment A (Labour frontbench): Proposes the House of Commons backing
    Labour's approach to a Brexit deal rather than Theresa May's current deal.
    Result: 323 against vs 240 for - Government wins
  • Amendment K (SNP): The Scottish devolved government insist that the UK should
    not leave the EU in a no-deal manner, regardless of the exit date.
    Result: 324 against vs 288 for - Government wins
  • Amendment C (Spelman/Dromey): A cross-party amendment designed to fix a date
    of March 18 for the Prime Minister to come back to the House and give one of three
    new options.
    Result: Amendment withdrawn - Prime Minister offered an earlier deadline herself
  • Amendment B (Costa) : Conservative MP Alberto Costa, PPS to the Scottish Minister,
    proposed a joint UK/EU commitment to protecting citizen rights of UK nationals in
    Europe and EU nationals in Britain.
    Result:     Unanimous House approval / Costa's forced resignation due to a breach of protocol
  • Amendment F (Cooper) : Initially a cross-party amendment (before Letwin's withdrawal),
    the amendment enshrined the agreement that if MPs voted to delay Brexit there would
    be a subsequent move by the UK government to extend Article 50.
    Result: 502 for vs 20 against - Amendment passes

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Wednesday 27th February 2019

Theresa May UK Prime Minister

Theresa May has assuaged fears of MPs in both parties that Brexit could end with the UK
crashing out in a no-deal scenario. After speaking in the House of Commons yesterday
afternoon, a second meaningful vote will be offered to MPs by March 12th at the latest –
giving the Prime Minister a chance to put forward any further amendments to her withdrawal
deal.

Should this result in another defeat for the government then a further vote will be held on
March 13th – with the House deciding whether to leave the EU without an agreement –
the dreaded ‘no-deal’. If MPs vote not to leave, which seems likely given the vocal opposition
of Labour and Conservative MPs to a no-deal, then a third vote will be held by March 14th
to decide on whether to submit a request for an extension to the deadline for Article 50.

The news is seen as the PM bowing down to pressure from both her own party and the
opposition to avoid a no-deal scenario at all costs. The proposed Cooper-Letwin Amendment,
that was due to be tabled today, had gained traction across the House, but has been
withdrawn in response to Theresa May’s promised votes.

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Following Prime Minister’s Questions today, Parliament will spend the afternoon debating
and voting on the next steps of Brexit. Although this is not a meaningful vote, it will give
insight into the current support the PM might get on March 12th.

Jeremy Corbyn has confirmed he will be tabling an amendment for Labour’s proposals of
a customs union and closer relationship to the single market – proposals that have been
discussed positively by both the EU and some MPs from both parties but with stern
opposition from Eurosceptics.

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Tuesday 26th February 2019

Jeremy Corbyn MP Labour Party leader

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has said that the party will whip to back the Cooper/Letwin
Amendment for a second referendum in the event that Labour’s amendment to the
Withdrawal Act fails in the Commons on Wednesday.

The announcement yesterday evening is seen by many as a unification move by Corbyn,
following the loss of MPs to The Independent Group (TIG) and the threat of other MPs –
potentially led by Deputy Leader Tom Watson – to form a rival faction to the grassroots
group Momentum.

Emily Thornberry, Shadow Foreign Secretary, took to Twitter last night to challenge
suggestions she ‘misspoke’ when explaining Labour’s approach, saying: “I've seen some
nonsense that I "misspoke" earlier on a public vote. Pretty hard to misspeak identically in
10 interviews, but for clarity: if Theresa May won't accept our deal, then the public must
decide: do we accept whatever deal she gets through, or do we Remain? Got it?”

Labour’s change of approach will be welcomed by many who are desperate for a no-deal
Brexit to be removed at all costs, with many businesses and advisory bodies arguing that
while the UK can cope with Brexit, the no-deal element is too much strain.

Following the Prime Minister’s meeting in Egypt over the weekend with EU-League of Arab
States summit, several government ministers have hinted that the Prime Minister might
agree to take no-deal off the table in order to avoid a second referendum, given the protracted
‘negotiations’ between May’s team and EU negotiators.

The government is already currently in a crisis meeting following an oversight for heat-treated
pallets. Non-EU countries must use these to trade with the EU to protect against pests and
microbes, and the UK has a severe shortage. There are also reports that while the UK will get
better rates on certain goods from South East Asia, general tariffs will rise sharply – with the
potential of an extra 40% on imported food.

The Director General of the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC), Dr Adam Marshall, said in
a press release today: “At this pivotal moment, the government must take decisive steps to
avoid the damage that a messy and disorderly exit would cause to business and the economy
in just a month’s time.

“It is time to be honest. Government and its agencies are not prepared for a ‘no deal’ exit on
29th March. Neither are many businesses.

“The overriding priority must be to assure businesses, employees, investors and communities
that an unwanted ‘no deal’ scenario will not be allowed to happen by default on March 29th.”

The Prime Minister is due to speak to the House of Commons at 12:30pm today about tomorrow’s
Next Step Vote and the delayed Meaningful Vote on March 12th.

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Monday 25th February 2019

Prime Minister Theresa May

MPs will have a new meaningful vote on Brexit by 12th March, just 17 days before the UK
is set to leave the EU. Parliament had hoped that this week would see MP’s given the
chance to vote, but the Prime Minister has delayed this a further two weeks, arguing
that negotiations are “still ongoing”.

The delay has been met with frustration by opponents, with Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn
claiming that Theresa May is “recklessly running down the clock”.

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With the Brexit deadline edging closer, the risk of a no-deal is continuing to cause concern
among MPs and businesses. Calls for a no-deal to be taken off the table are growing and
the cross-party Cooper-Letwin amendment to the Withdrawal Act is growing in support.
Conservative cabinet ministers Greg Clark, Amber Rudd and David Gauke have written in
the Daily Mail that they would be forced to back the bill if the ERG stood in the way of a
parliamentary majority. If the bill passed it would force the government to delay Brexit if
an agreement has not been reached by March 13th.

A delay to Brexit has not been officially ruled out by the Government, though it would be
unpopular with certain members of the Conservative Party who want to leave no matter
the cost. The Telegraph reports that plans have been drawn up by the Government that
could delay Brexit by two months – a move the Prime Minister had previously ruled out.
The EU has stated that they will consider an extension to Article 50's deadline if it can be
proven that it would break the deadlock in parliament.

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Thursday 21st February 2019

Leader of the Opposition Jeremy Corbyn

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn met with EU officials today following Theresa May's visit to
Brussels yesterday, with the leader of the opposition looking to improve relations with the
EU following strained talks with the government.

The Prime Minister is still pursuing additional guarantees or tweaks to the Irish backstop
proposal in order to satisfy concerned Eurosceptics in her party, but with the EU not willing
to budge for her demands progress is a non-starter.

In response to the political deadlock, Labour proposed a diluted version of their six-point
plan. The hope is to push through a Brexit deal and retain a degree of a customs union with
mainland Europe - a concession that EU negotiators said they could support.

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Labour's proposals for a slightly watered down approach to their EU wishlist have been
met with opposition from the ERG and the DUP, which has weighed heavily on the PM
who subsequently won't concede to the opposition.

Theresa May has until February 27 before a new round of voting has to be presented to
MPs in the House of Commons. The hope for the Prime Minister is that she will have a
better Brexit deal to give to MPs, but if not then May will speak to the House on Tuesday,
with another Next Step Vote (no3) on Wednesday to try and decide which direction to
take the Withdrawal Agreement in.

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Monday 18th February 2019

Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt

The UK Government’s hopes of wrapping up further trade deals in the event of a no-deal
Brexit have hit a snag this week after Japanese officials took offence at diplomatic
language used by Jeremy Hunt and Liam Fox.

A letter from both the Foreign Secretary (Hunt) and the International Trade Secretary (Fox)
to the Japanese government stressed that “time is of the essence” – a phrasing that
Japan feels is a passive-aggressive accusation that they are taking their time.

An official response from the Japanese government is expected this week, but those involved
with the UK-Japan trade talks have spoken to reporters to suggest that it is Britain’s negotiating
team that has been the cause of any delays to a deal, lacking the specialists required to speed
up the deal and reach a mutual agreement.

The news comes days after China also cancelled a trade and finance meeting with Chancellor
Philip Hammond following the UK’s decision to send an aircraft carrier into the Pacific Ocean.
The clash is a little premature; the Queen Elizabeth carrier was commissioned in 2017 and is due
to become operational next year.

Chuka Umunna MP

In other political news, seven MPs have quit the Labour Party today and launched The Independent
Group. Luciana Berger, Chuka Umunna, Mike Gapes, Ann Coffey, Chris Leslie, Gavin Shuker, and
Angela Smith all quit in unison in protest against the current Labour frontbench. Speaking to
reporters in attendance, Luciana Berger described the Labour Party as “institutionally anti-Semitic”,
while Chris Leslie called the Labour leadership ideals “narrow and outdated”.

In response, Jeremy Corbyn expressed his sadness at the MPs leaving, arguing that Labour’s
performance at the last election – the party’s largest vote share since 1945 – showed that Labour’s
policies were winning people over. None of the seven voted for Corbyn in the first leadership
election in 2016, while five of seven voted for Liz Kendall MP – arguably the furthest right of the four
challengers.

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Friday 15th February 2019

Theresa May and her government lost yet another Brexit vote last night, with 303 votes to
258 against her motion of continuing to delay a Meaningful Vote while the government
negotiated the Irish backstop and terms further with EU officials.

The 45-vote majority has little legal ramifications, but it does serve as yet another wound
for the Prime Minister, with members of her own party - the ERG - responsible for the defeat
with their abstinence on the vote.

The fear, according to Tory MPs in the European Research Group, is that the PM's approach
will - by default - rule out a no-deal Brexit, which to the ERG could be a slippery slope into no
Brexit at all if the Prime Minister's deal keeps being voted down.

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Thursday 14th February 2019

Sir Keir Starmer QC Labour MP

Brace yourself. It’s a long one today. The House of Commons is currently debating the Next
Step Vote that is to take place in the Chambers this evening.

The voting tonight is to determine whether MPs still back the government’s approach that
was agreed in last month’s vote and to allow Theresa May more time to negotiate with the
EU about the Irish backstop. Three motions have been selected for MPs to vote on by the
Speaker, beyond the primary motion requesting continued support of the government:

  • Amendment A (Labour, Corbyn) – Deadline of February 27th to present a Meaningful
    Vote to the Commons or another Next Step Vote if negotiations fail
    [DEFEATED - 306 ayes to 322 noes]
  • Amendment I (SNP, Blackford) – Calls to extend Article 50 for at least three months
    beyond the end of March to allow further debate and negotiations
    [DEFEATED - 93 ayes to 315 noes]
  • Amendment E (Conservatives, Soubry) – Instructs the government to publish, in full,
    the most recent official briefing document about Brexit, business and trade within
    seven days, including the implications of no-deal as presented to the Cabinet.
    [Motion Withdrawn by Anna Soubry MP]

Sir Keir Starmer spoke in the Commons today against his opposite number, the Brexit
Secretary Stephen Barclay, and argued that he believes the Prime Minister is delaying
a Meaningful Vote (similar to the defeat in January) in order to reach a last-gasp point
of Deal or No Deal, and force MPs to back her deal after all.

The big obstacle for Theresa May isn’t the opposition though, it is the ERG (European
Research Group) of right-wing Tories in her own party. The ardent Brexit supporters are
unhappy at the suggestions that the government might take no-deal off the table, claiming
that it undermines the UK’s negotiating position.

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The ERG are currently in a meeting to decide on their voting allegiance, and whether
or not they will oppose fellow Conservative MP Anna Soubry’s motion to reveal all the
secret Cabinet papers on Brexit negotiations to the Commons.

According to one ERG source, the upside for the group is that the Prime Minister would
be embarrassed, and the data revealed about how bad no-deal looks will come across
more like scaremongering.

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Liam Fox, the International Trade Secretary, led calls this morning to back the PM for fear
of undermining her authority in Europe, but was already under scrutiny himself following
the news that only £16 billion of the £117 billion in EU trade deals had been renegotiated
or re-established in some form. The comments of the Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte in
the Spanish newspaper El Pais might also suggest the damage is done, with the Netherlands’
leader saying that the UK is “too small to appear on the world stage on its own”.

Brexit is costing UK economy £800m a week according to one of the Bank of England’s
leading economists. Gertjan Vlieghe, an external member of the Bank of England Monetary
Policy Committee, said the £40 billion a year figure was based on the fact that the UK economy
had lost 2% of GDP since the June 2016 Brexit referendum vote.

Speaking to reporters, Vlieghe said: “That 2% of GDP is not trivial, that’s £40bn or if you prefer
it in bus units, it’s £800m a week.”

The Guardian newspaper also reported Vlieghe’s comments about business investments, which
are reportedly hovering above zero after a 3.7% drop in 2018 (despite an upswing of 6% in the G7).
The report, published through the Bank of England website, also highlighted a slowdown in consumer
spending, which was caused by the Pound’s devaluation raising the price of goods and services.

The Resolution Foundation, who recently reported a £1,500 loss per household since the referendum
result, posted on Twitter that concerns about Brexit have escalated as the deadline comes ever closer.

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The Brexit woes continued with additional criticism from construction firm Galliford Try,
who published their half-year results today. In their statement, the firm said that public
and private sector projects were being delayed while investors waited for resolution of
Brexit and for a clearer direction of UK trade with the European Union.

Click here to read Vlieghe’s full BoE statement.

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Tuesday 12th February 2019

Theresa May issued a statement to the House of Commons today arguing that she
needed further time to negotiate with the EU and officials in order to seek better resolution
of the Withdrawal Agreement.

The Prime Minister told the House that she would fast-track the Brexit deal if it seemed
like the government was running out of time to pass it before the deadline at the end of
March - something which reporters are claiming sounds like a last minute or deadline vote.

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Emily Maitlis, one of the BBC's senior journalists, took to Twitter to highlight a chat she
had with one Tory MP months ago, and how their conversation was ringing true after
three months of delays and dispute.

The PM came under fire during her Commons statement after suggesting that she wanted
to deal to happen before Christmas, despite the fact that she cancelled the vote and pushed
it back into January. The likely next date for a vote is to be February 27th, though this will
depend on the outcome of this Thursday's vote in the chamber.

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Thursday 7th February 2019

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn today proposed a new approach for Parliament to break
the Brexit deadlock, with a five point checklist of what the UK needs from the Withdrawal
Agreement in order for MPs to pass it through the Commons. The plan states that the UK
would need to have a permanent and comprehensive customs union that applied to the
whole UK, 'close' alignment to the single market, similar alignments on rights and protections
to ensure UK standards keep up, clear commitments on which EU agencies and programmes
the UK can and can't get involved in despite Brexit, and very clear agreements with regards
shared security matters.

The wishlist is more of a concession than Labour had previously been willing to offer, and the
timing gives both Theresa May and the European Council something to think about in today's
discussions in Brussels. Some Labour MPs, including Chuka Umunna and Owen Smith, have
voiced their unhappiness with the Labour front benches and the latest approach, but with 36
working days left until the UK leaves the EU, and with the Prime Minister insisting it's a deal
or no-deal scenario and not 'No Brexit', the Labour Party is stuck between a rock and a hard
place; upset the public or upset the party.

In anticipation of today's EU talks, the Pound has fallen by 0.3% to $1.29 as investors wait and
see what will happen in negotiations. The Pound has been performing reasonably well of late
against the Dollar and the Euro, with the Federal Shutdown and weak Eurozone manufacturing
figures, but the return of the No Deal threat has scared investors once again.

One man who may be regretting his words is Mark Carney - Chairman of the Bank of England.
Carney said on January 17 that No Brexit was more likely than No Deal; a belief that seem to
have all but vanished now. At midday today the Bank of England are due to hold their last
'Super Thursday' before the Brexit deadline, with Carney due to report whether there will be any
changes to the UK interest rate, as well as other economic performance figures. The expectation
is no rise from the current 0.75% rate, given that inflation is back down to 2.1% (marginally above
the Bank's target of 2%) and the global economy has been slowing down since November which
might adjust future UK growth forecasts.

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Wednesday 6th February 2019

Emily Thornberry MP

With Theresa May away in Northern Ireland today, PMQs duties fell on David Lidington
- Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster. As per protocol, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn
was not present due to the absence of the PM, with Emily Thornberry stepping in at the
despatch box.

Brexit was the sole focus of the exchanges between the two, with Thornberry questioning
why the Prime Minister could not see that the one hurdle stopping a Brexit deal passing
was that of the customs union. Lidington responded that the best way to avoid no-deal
was to back May’s deal.

Before PMQs at midday, the Commons Business Committee met to speak with Greg Clark,
the Business Secretary, and with Liam Fox, the International Trade secretary. Clark warned
MPs present that the deadline for Brexit was a lot closer than people expected, due to the
shipping times for British goods to eastern Asia.

Clark did tow the party line that it’s deal or no-deal as the options for Brexit at present, that
extending Article 50 is very unlikely, and that revoking Article 50 is unacceptable. Clark also
hinted that, in the event of a no-deal Brexit, he would resign his position within the cabinet.
Quizzed by Rachel Reeves on no-deal, Clark said that “many people on all sides of the House
that would regard that as unacceptable.”

Dr Liam Fox MP International Trade Secretary

Despite Theresa May going back on her agreement with the ERG to remove the Irish backstop
and arrange alternatives with the EU, Dr Liam Fox told Angus MacNeil that “we are closer to
an agreement than we have been at any point." Fox also responded to the suggestions in
yesterday’s Huffington Post that the government would remove all import tariffs in a no-deal
scenario, something which Fox said he personally opposes but was a collective decision for
the cabinet.

It might be the case that these tariff reductions are a necessary incentive, however. The latest
report from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research says that while the economy
will certainly be worse off post-Brexit, recession could be avoided with the correct contingency
plans – such as tax cuts, tariff reductions, and increased public spending. NIESR’s data shows
zero growth in the first two years after Brexit but does not estimate the longer term state of the
economy.

Donald Tusk, the President of the European Council, took a leaf out of namesake Donald Trump’s
book early this afternoon by turning to Twitter to vent his frustrations.

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The response from Conservative MPs has been calls for apologies, but Sinn Fein’s president,
Mary Lou McDonald, told reporters that those MPs who instigated the Leave campaign had
“acted with absolute contempt for this country, utter disregard for the experiences of Irish
people north and south, with utter disregard for the peace process that has been collectively
built over decades.”

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Tuesday 5th February 2019

Theresa May began a two-day visit to Northern Ireland today, giving a press conference
in Belfast following discussions with DUP ministers in the capital. The PM stressed her
“unshakeable” commitment to the Good Friday agreement and her intention to negotiate
with EU leaders and officials on Thursday.

May will meet with the DUP again tomorrow, as well as Northern Ireland’s other main party
- Sinn Féin. The Prime Minister emphasised the importance of speaking to both unionists
and nationalists and said that she wants to see a return of the devolved administration in
the country.

Sinn Féin’s vice-president, Michelle O’Neill, spoke to reporters after the PM’s speech today
and said: “Theresa May has made an enormous U turn and an act of gross bad faith by
reneging in her commitments on the backstop. We heard nothing new from her today. We
need to see the Irish government and EU27 holding firm and defending the backstop.”

Following her speech, the Prime Minister took questions from both national and local
reporters, with one journalist suggesting she had “shafted” local businesses who wanted
the backstop as an insurance policy.

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The Prime Minister responded to criticism of the Irish backstop proposals – something
she has already voted against – by saying that her re-negotiations with the European
Union would be to change the backstop rather than remove it from the Withdrawal
Agreement altogether. This prompted a swift response from the European Research
Group of Tory MPs, with one source telling The Guardian newspaper that “Even if she
doesn’t mean what she said, we still do.”

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Monday 4th February 2019

Michael O'Leary Ryanair Chief Executive

Airline Ryanair has revealed it lost €19.6m (£17.1m) in the third quarter of 2018. The
company revised its profit forecast down to €1 billion, with airfares down 6% for the
year. Chief executive Michael O’Leary describing the news as "disappointing".

O'Leary went on to issue a warning that the chances of a hard Brexit were “worryingly
high” and risked damaging the company's revenues further in 2019.

In an official statement, the firm said: “We cannot rule out further cuts to air fares and/or
slightly lower full-year guidance especially if there are unexpected Brexit and/or security
developments which adversely impact fares for close-in bookings between now and the
end of March."

New figures out from Markit also showed that UK construction PMI has fallen, similar to
the recent manufacturing slump. Construction fell from 52.8 points in December to 50.6
points in January. The point of stagnation is 50, and any lower is a regression.

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Friday 1st February 2019

Institute of Directors

The Institute of Directors has today warned that nearly 1 in 3 businesses have prepared
for relocation in the event of a harder Brexit or a no-deal scenario. The IoD surveyed
1,200 of its members and found that 29% of companies (348) had plans to either relocate
or partially relocate in order to maintain smooth operations.

10% of the IoD's members had already moved part of their business to Europe - whether
Ireland or the mainland - in preparation for March's official withdrawal date. Sony were
amongst the big names to leave the UK, but the IoD's Interim Director General, Edwin
Morgan, warned of the impact on smaller businesses - many of whom have tighter
finances and are taking a high risk to pursue the lesser of two evils.

“We can no more ignore the real consequences of delay and confusion than business
leaders can ignore the hard choices that they face in protecting their companies" said Morgan.

“Change is a necessary and often positive part of doing business, but the unavoidable
disruption and increased trade barriers that no deal would bring are entirely unproductive.”

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Thursday 31st January 2019

Barclays bank

Barclays Bank has announced it will move nearly £170 billion worth of assets from the UK
to Ireland in preparation for a no-deal Brexit. The company received approval from the High
Court to move €190 billion from London to Dublin, and has announced it will double the Irish
capital's staff count from 150 to 300 to assist with the additional asset holdings.

In other economic news, the Nationwide Building Society has reported that house price
growth is slowing down - now only 0.1% higher year-on-year. This is down from the 0.5%
growth reported in December, but December was down 0.7% when compared to November
2018. The figures are the lowest since February 2013. As a result of the struggling house
prices, Foxtons have reported that they have lost 80% of their annual profits in the past year
- down from £15 million to £3 million.

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Wednesday 30th January 2019

Theresa May's government won 6 of the 7 votes on Brexit bill amendments last night, with a
surprising vote by the Prime Minister against her own deal and the Irish backstop that she
fought to attain from the EU.

The Brady Amendment, known as Amendment N, was proposed in an attempt to give the
Prime Minister the parliamentary authority to return to the EU and attempt renegotiations;
an option that EU leaders and officials are saying is not possible and will not be entertained.

The results of yesterday's voting can be seen below:

  • Amendment A: Jeremy Corbyn & Labour's amendment to extend Article 50
    Ayes: 296. Noes 327. Motion defeated.
  • Amendment O: Ian Blackford & the SNP's amendment for an extension, taking
    into account Scotland's majority vote for remaining in the EU.
    Ayes: 39. Noes 327. Motion defeated.
  • Amendment G: Conservative MP Dominic Grieve's amendment to block other business
    interrupting progress when debating the Withdrawal Agreement or amendments.
    This would specifically force the government to grant MPs time to discuss alternatives
    to the government's Brexit plan - approximately six days of Commons debate.
    Ayes: 301. Noes 321. Motion defeated.
  • Amendment B: Labour MP Yvette Cooper's amendment that Brexit discussions will
    take precedence in the order of business for the Commons on any given day, and that
    Parliament can decide what classes as Brexit business.
    Ayes: 298. Noes: 321. Motion defeated.
  • Dame Caroline Spelman MP Amendment J: Labour MP Rachel Reeves' amendment that there be a two-year
    extension to Article 50.
    Ayes: 290. Noes: 322. Motion defeated.
  • Amendment I: Conservative MP Dame Caroline Spelman's amendment that a No
    Deal outcome is not permissible.
    Ayes: 318. Noes: 310. Motion passes (government defeat)
  • Amendment N: Conservative MP Sir Graham Brady's amendment to replace the
    Irish backstop with alternatives.
    Ayes: 317. Noes: 301. Motion passes (government victory)

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Tuesday 29th January 2019

Big Ben Parliament London

MPs are currently sitting in the House of Commons to debate Theresa May's Plan B for
Brexit. The Prime Minister has come under fire in the past week due to the lack of alteration
to create this plan, which many critics say is effectively Plan A in a new guise. The Prime
Minister has promised to re-enter negotiations with Europe, having previously ruled
it out, and stressed she will seek new legal safeguards to ensure no hard border between
Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland happens.

The Speaker of the House, John Bercow, has selected seven of 15 proposed amendments
to May's Plan B. These are:

  • Amendment A: Jeremy Corbyn & Labour's amendment to extend Article 50.
  • Amendment O: Ian Blackford & the SNP's amendment for an extension, taking
    into account Scotland's majority vote for remaining in the EU.
  • Amendment G: Dominic Grieve (Conservative) 's amendment to block other business
    interrupting progress when debating the Withdrawal Agreement or amendments.
    This specifically forces the government to grant MPs time to discuss alternatives
    to the government's Brexit plan - approximately six days of Commons debate.
  • Amendment B: Yvette Cooper (Labour) 's amendment that Brexit discussions will
    take precedence in the order of business for the Commons on any given day.
  • Amendment J: Rachel Reeves (Labour) 's amendment that there be a two-year
    extension to Article 50.
  • Amendment I: Dame Caroline Spelman (Conservative) 's amendment that a No
    Deal outcome is not permissible.
  • Amendment N: Sir Graham Brady (Conservative) 's amendment to replace the
    Irish backstop with alternatives.

Kit Malthouse MP plan

One rumour currently circulating is that of a Plan C - the Malthouse Plan; a compromise that
suggests a minor free trade agreement, an extended transition period (plus one year), and
renegotiation over the Irish backstop. Many MPs, including DUP officials, have said they will
support this plan but the European Commission and all 27 member states have issued a
statement in unison this afternoon reiterating the fact that the Brexit deal already rejected is
the one and only deal available to the United Kingdom, and there will be no renegotiation.

The second vote on the government's Brexit deal will take place tonight at approximately 7pm,
with voting expected to be completed within the hour and a statement either in the Commons,
or outside No10 Downing Street, likely to follow shortly after.

Full terminology and explanation of the proposed amendments can be found HERE on the official
UK Parliament website.

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Monday 28th January 2019

11 retail CEOs, and the Chief Executive of the British Retail Consortium, have written
to the government to warn of the serious risks of disruption in the event of a no-deal
Brexit.

Bosses from Asda, Waitrose, the Co-op, Sainsbury's, and Marks & Spencer issued the
joint letter to stress the significant disruption that would face food supplies in the event
of no deal being agreed, with shortages in the face of import tariffs from the EU - where
almost 1/3 of British food comes from.

There were similar warnings over the weekend too, with the suggestion that the army and
armed police may be deployed onto the streets to enact Martial Law in the event of post-
Brexit unrest.

The response from the Pound Sterling was a 0.3% drop against the US Dollar, hitting $1.3162,
and a 0.15 drop against the Euro to 86.57p. Gold is at £989.74 per ounce; up £5 from today's
low and down £2 per ounce from the peak spot price.

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Friday 25th January 2019

Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond

Chancellor Philip Hammond insists that British businesses need to accept that Brexit is
going to happen, and to focus on backing that rather than fearing a no-deal outcome.

The chancellor told attendees that "We need to get the politics right” and said "it would
be a pyrrhic victory to meet the needs of the economy, but by shattering the broad
economic consensus behind our country’s political and economic system.”

Hammond was a busy man yesterday in Davos, holding a rapid succession of quick
meetings with senior officials and leaders from across the EU and beyond, but it was
his business lunch with the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) that stood out.
With no Theresa May at the World Economic Forum it means Hammond is the chief
delegate from the UK, and the message was simple: anything but a Brexit deal is a
betrayal of the British public.

Another British institution seeking to prepare for Brexit is the BBC, with the Director
General, Tony Hall, having met with Belgian Prime Minister Charles Michel as part
of the corporation's preparations for life after the EU. The BBC is reportedly also
looking at the Netherlands and Ireland in order to retain its licenses for international
broadcasting, with channels such as BBC World and BBC Entertainment at risk.

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Thursday 24th January 2019

Tony Blair

Former Prime Minister Tony Blair believes that Brexit is "a complete mess" and that Theresa
May needs to get on with a second referendum. Speaking to Bloomberg News at the World
Economic Forum in Davos, Blair said that while he believes some of May's own party are
being unreasonable, so much has changed that a second referendum and a people's vote
is the logical way forward to move away from the Brexit stalemate in Parliament.

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The CEO of Airbus has also released a video today, calling the UK government "a disgrace" and
asking the public to not allow a no-deal scenario to happen, saying that there are no guarantees
(as seen by Dyson's move to Singapore) that companies currently based in Britain will stay here
post-Brexit if there is no deal; even if they promised to stay during the negotiation period.

In the video, Tom Enders said: "We, along with many of our peers, have repeatedly called for
clarity. But we still have no idea what is really going on here."

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Monday 21st January 2019

The Prime Minister has announced her Plan B to the House of Commons this afternoon, telling
MPs that she would abandon the £65 fee for EU nationals to stay in the UK post-Brexit. May also
argued that she would pursue changes to the Irish backstop for the border, as well as improved
worker rights, but refused a second referendum or to rule out a No Deal scenario, with reporters
such as ITN's Paul Brand claiming this is, in essence, still Plan A.

Elsewhere and the UK Warehousing Association (UKWA) has reported a surge in warehouse
demand due to Brexit stockpiling, with 75% of its members unable to accommodate further
storage requests at present.

One final bit of Brexit news was the discussion of 'shrinkflation'; the act of products being
reduced in size or quantity whilst remaining the same price. Figures from the Office for
National Statistics show that 206 supermarket items shrunk between September 2015
and June 2017, with analysts attributing this to Brexit's pressures on future trading and a
potential hit to supply.

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Thursday 17th January 2019

The Prime Minister and her government survived a vote of no confidence last night, orchestrated
by Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, with 325 votes in support of the current UK government and
306 MPs voting against it.

Northern Ireland's DUP, who have propped the government up with their support to avoid a hung
parliament, voted down Theresa May's Brexit deal but supported her in last night's vote. Had
their 10 MPs voted against the PM and her administration then the vote would have been 315-316
and the government would have been dissolved.

May spoke outside No10 Downing Street after the result last night to promise cross-party talks in
"a constructive spirit" and stressed that " MPs know they have a duty to act in the national interest,
reach a consensus and get this done". The opposition response from Labour and the SNP is that
until No Deal is taken off the table there will be no negotiation from their side.

The government now has until January 21 to present an alternative plan to Parliament. Theresa
May is expected to meet with her own party's Brexiteers today, as well as the DUP, while David
Lidington - with the help of Michael Gove, Steve Barclay, and Gavin Barwell - is reportedly in charge
of discussions with opposition MPs.

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Wednesday 16th January 2019

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn last night called for a vote of no confidence in Theresa May's
Conservative government after the Prime Minister suffered the largest defeat in the history
of the Commons for a ruling party.

May's Brexit Withdrawal Agreement lost by 432-202 votes, and subsequently the leader of
the opposition launched his challenge to try and remove the government from office and to
trigger a general election. Mr Corbyn's motion was heard this afternoon after Prime Minister's
Questions, and will be voted on in Parliament this evening at around 7pm, with the votes
expected to be revealed around 8pm.

The opposition motion is expected to lose by many - including Labour's own Shadow Chancellor,
John McDonnell - but the hope from opposition MPs is that it will push the government away
from a No Deal scenario and towards a second referendum.

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Tuesday 15th January 2019

Hilary Benn MP Labour

An amendment to the government's Withdrawal Agreement motion made by Labour MP
Hilary Benn has been withdrawn this morning, ahead of tonight's vote in Parliament.

Benn took to Twitter to explain why he had pulled the amendment, which was initially
put forward to reject both Theresa May's deal and a No Deal scenario. He argues that it
is still his wish to avoid a no-deal outcome, but that is a matter for a future vote and that
tonight must be purely focussed on whether or not May's Brexit deal is acceptable or not.
Journalists, political insiders, and bookmakers are all predicting a large defeat for the
Prime Minister this evening, with many Tory MPs expected to rebel against their leader.

Michael Gove MP (Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs) is also
trending online today after he clashed with political journalist Nick Robinson, with the
BBC veteran accusing Gove of "endlessly talking" during their interview in order to avoid
scrutiny. Speaking in defence of the government this morning, Gove argued that May's
deal was the right one and MPs should back it, before then quoting HBO drama 'Game
of Thrones' to say that "Winter is coming" if May's deal isn't approved in the Commons.

Michael Gove MP Conservatives

Jim Pickard, Chief Political Correspondent of the Financial Times, had this to say about
Michael Gove's Brexit positions over the past few years:

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Boris Johnson MP Conservatives

Tonight's vote on Theresa May's Brexit deal is due to take place at around 7pm, with the
potential for a 30 minute delay to hear any last minute business before ministers leave to
go and cast their votes. The results are expected around 10pm.

Away from the vote, former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson spoke out on LBC radio this
morning to criticise the chairman of Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), Professor Dr Ralf Speth, for
claiming that Brexit was impacting the company's manufacturing output and sales. When
challenged by host Nick Ferrari that Speth knows more about car manufacturing, Johnson
said: " I’m not certain he does" before citing his support for electric vehicles ahead of the
likes of JLR pursuing interest.

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Monday 14th January 2019

Theresa May today warned that no Brexit was more likely than a no-deal scenario, and told
MPs that they risk "betraying the vote of the British people" if they don't support her Brexit
deal tomorrow when voting in the House of Commons.

The Prime Minister was at a pottery factory in Stoke-on-Trent this morning and told reporters
that her deal offered a compromise that avoided the damage of no deal while respecting
the referendum vote. Mrs May will appear in Parliament later, speaking to MPs at 3:30pm
before the Brexit debating between members resumes.

Continue Reading

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Carolyn Fairbairn Director General Confederation of British Industry

Friday 11th January 2019

Carolyn Fairbairn, Director General of the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), today
warned that the UK risked losing thousands of jobs and an 8% drop in GDP if a no-deal
Brexit scenario occurred this year.

Speaking at Bristol's Old Vic Theatre to business leaders from the south-west, Fairbairn
said that the country's manufacturing and services sectors were at serious risk if Parliament
didn't choose May's deal or to reject Brexit altogether.

Fairbairn also defended MPs for their voting actions to limit the government's time to propose
a Plan B should May's Brexit deal be voted down next Tuesday evening.

"Each MP is democratically chosen to safeguard the security and prosperity of our country"
said Fairbairn. " And next week, they face a test. If they meet it with yet more brinkmanship,
the whole country could face a no-deal, disorderly Brexit."

Click here to read the CBI's official statement issued ahead of today's speech.

The Pound gained ground today, boosting the FTSE 100 stock exchange during early trading,
with the London Evening Standard (edited by former Tory chancellor George Osborne)
reporting that the Brexit deadline of 29th March was now pretty much untenable in the face
of how many proposals must be debated in the House of Commons before that time. In
response to the strong suggestion that the deadline would therefore have to be extended, the
Pound Sterling reached a high point of $1.284 before falling back slightly.

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Thursday 10th January 2019

Total sales growth for the retail sector hit zero for the first time since the financial crash, new
reports show, with shops experiencing the worst Christmas in 10 years. Sales dropped by
0.7% in December, as opposed to a 0.6% rise in 2017. The only retail area that performed
well was food, sales of which were 0.6% higher compared to the previous December.

The news isn't a huge surprise given the ongoing Brexit disruption, with consumer research
group GfK reporting last month that UK consumer confidence was the lowest for five years.

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Wednesday 9th January 2019

Dominic Grieve QC Conservative MP

The government made it two defeats in two days after MPs voted in favour of limiting the
government's deadline for proposing a Plan B should Theresa May's Brexit deal be defeated in
the Commons next Tuesday. Before the vote the Prime Minister had 21 days to prepare and
present an alternative option, but now Parliament has massively reduced this to just three
days - a strong signal that a second referendum would be the preferred next step for many MPs.

The amendment, put forward by Conservative MP Dominic Grieve QC, won by 11 votes (four
more than yesterday's vote) and effectively stops Theresa May running the clock down to the
deadline, in what Yvette Cooper (pictured below) and others are calling 'brinkmanship'.

There was also criticism from the Freight Transport Association today, with James Hookham -
Deputy Chief Executive of the FTA - telling Business Insider: “I’m not going to let the logistics
industry take the fall for political indulgence. It’ll be messy, expensive and not end well, and
[has been] caused by people who suffer from ignorance or privilege. Or both."

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Tuesday 8th January 2019

The government suffered another defeat in the House of Commons as Labour MP Yvette Cooper's
amendment to the Finance Bill was passed in the chamber by seven votes, with 20 Conservative
MPs backing her change to the legislation.

The bill won with 303 votes for versus 296 against, and is the first finance bill to be defeated since
1978. The amendments will now limit the government's capability to alter taxes in the event of a
no-deal Brexit scenario.A government spokesperson described the defeat as "inconvenient rather
than significant". Click here to read the full story via our News section.

In other Brexit news, the World Bank warned that leaving with no deal could threaten the UK's trade
relationships with nations sat outside the EU borders, such as those in North Africa and the Balkan
states. The report issued by the World Bank highlighted the current degree of trade obstruction
caused by the US/China trade war, and suggested a similar outcome for Europe in this scenario.

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Monday 7th January 2019

Anna Soubry MP

MPs, journalists and activists were verbally abused and intimidated outside of Parliament today as
protestors accused them of lying about the downsides of Brexit. The pro-Brexit supporters, some of
whom were known right-wing supporters, were filmed by news outlets shouting obscenities at MPs
and reporters. Several chose to follow prominent figures, such as Sky News' Kay Burley and The
Guardian's Owen Jones, with a barrage of sexist and homophobic comments made against the pair.

As the footage below from the BBC shows, protestors emulating the Gilet Jaune (yellow jackets) of
France were also following Conservative MP Anna Soubry, one of the few Remain voting Tories, and
bombarding her with questions while surrounding her and shouting.

A cross-party complaint has been submitted to the Metropolitan Police chief since the incidents,
with MPs from all parties expressing their concerns about public order and security - especially
around College Green - with the chief complaint that while many protestors behaved responsibly,
some crossed the line.

Elsewhere, the government also undertook a small-scale lorry exercise in Kent, with 100 trucks testing
the potential problems of road congestion that may occur in the event of no deal being passed through
Parliament. The Department for Transport told news outlets that the test went well and traffic was
smooth, but some critics pointed out that 10,000 lorries visit the Channel ports daily and that this test
of 100 vehicles could not possibly reflect the potential problems accurately.

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DUP Sammy Wilson MP

Friday 4th January 2019

Democratic Unionist Party MP Sammy Wilson has told BBC Radio 4's Today programme this
morning that there is "no way" that the DUP would back Theresa May's Brexit deal, with the
Prime Minister now in discussions with EU officials about the legality of the Irish border
and the backstop.

Mrs May has repeatedly argued that the backstop - contingency plan - should not be needed, but
the DUP argue its existence is propaganda that threatens Northern Ireland with the prospect of a
return to a hard border.

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Wednesday 2nd January 2019

Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt believes that the UK can learn from Singapore in terms
of how to operate as a more independent economic force.

Mr Hunt was visiting the city-state to start the New Year and argued that the UK would
benefit from copying investment priorities for education and infrastructure and could
become a high-tech economy.

Some have pointed out that Singapore is part of ASEAN - the Association of South East
Asian Nations - which is a partnership programme between countries in that region.
As part of this partnership there is a degree of free movement for workers and shared
laws, similar to the practices of the EU, suggesting the UK may not be able to replicate
Singapore's successes, but the technicality involved is that there's cooperation, not legal
bindings, so were the UK to leave the EU then perhaps such a position would be adopted.

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Wednesday 19th December 2018

Nicola Sturgeon First Minister of Scotland

Prime Minister Theresa May will meet today with the First Minister of Scotland, Nicola
Sturgeon, and the newly appointed First Minister of Wales, Mark Drakeford, as well as
representatives from the Northern Irish Assembly. This afternoon's meeting in Downing
Street will be to discuss Brexit primarily, with the focus expected to be on the growing
level of preparations for a No Deal.

Some are accusing Theresa May of playing chicken with her political opponents; going
close to the wire to make MPs choose between her deal and no deal, rather than pushing
for a second referendum, but with the Chancellor announcing a further £2 billion of Brexit
precautionary funding, plenty feel the threat of a bad breakaway from the EU is a very
strong prospect.

Talks are expected to be difficult between May and Sturgeon, with the latter having previously
said that the Prime Minister needs to "face up to reality" and extend Article 50 and the Brexit
deadline.

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Tuesday 18th December 2018

The Liberal Democrats, Green Party, and Scottish National Party have jointly submitted a motion
of No Confidence in the UK Government, calling on the Labour Party and leader Jeremy Corbyn
to join their action.

Mr Corbyn had tried to instigate a vote of no confidence in Theresa May herself on Monday, with
the aim of swinging Tory rebels and the DUP on side for what was an unofficial vote and effectively
a PR exercise. The government said they refused to hear the motion in Tuesday's activity in the
Commons, on the grounds that it was a stunt, but the amendments by fellow opposition parties
mean the motion should be legitimised now as a full blown challenge to the government.

It is expected that the motion will be submitted to the Speaker of the House tomorrow.

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Thursday 13th December 2018

Theresa May survived a vote of No Confidence in her party leadership last night, winning by a margin
of 200 votes in favour of her compared to 117 against. May's victory means she is unopposable for
the next year in terms of her party leadership.

Some MPs - both rebels in her own party and from the opposition - pointed out that of her 200 votes,
150 people were employed by her within government, while others suggested her ploy of announcing
that she would step down at the end of her term as Prime Minister was a way of limiting opposition
and in-fighting as nobody wanted to appear too opportunistic.

The next step is likely to be a vote of no confidence in the government from the Labour Party, though
the DUP and ERG (European Research Group of Conservatives) have said they will back the Prime
Minister, making the mathematics of calling a general election quite unlikely. An alternate, unofficial
vote of no confidence in Theresa May might be an option, in the hope of presenting the Prime Minister
as unwanted within the Commons to the wider United Kingdom.

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Wednesday 12th December 2018

Conservative MPs last night initiated a motion of No Confidence against the Prime Minister,
having crossed the required threshold of 48 letters of opposition to Theresa May's continued
Conservative Party leadership.

Sir Graham Brady, Chairman of the 1922 Committee, is the chief of Tory backbenchers and
the designated official who can instigate the motion after receiving enough letters expressing
no confidence in the party leader. Sky News deputy political editor Beth Rigby tweeted yesterday
at 8am that it was believed that Mr Brady had received the required total, while late evening
Robert Peston tweeted a similar claim.

The announcement came at 7:45am this morning, with the Prime Minister giving a statement at
around 8:45am declaring that she will stand in the contest. She will speak to the 1922 Committee
at 5pm today, before voting begins at 6pm and ends at 8pm. The results of the vote, or at least
the first round of voting, are expected at 9pm UK time.

Below you can see the BBC footage of the Prime Minister's statement this morning:

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Monday 10th December 2018

Almost a week after the Attorney-General of the European Court of Justice said that the
UK should be able to walk away from Brexit without needing the permission of the other
27 member states, the court has now officially ruled that this statement is indeed correct
and, so long as a democratic decision is taken (either by public vote or in Parliament)
then the act of aborting Brexit would be considered legal and legitimate.

Lawyer David Allen Green, a contributor to the Financial Times and a blogger under the name
'Jack of Kent', published a thread on Twitter today explaining his insight into the matter. Mr
Green says that the UK can change its mind on Brexit until the Withdrawal Agreement is
signed and extended. If that is concluded then this is over, but until it is this option remains
active. Allen Green also points out that if the Article 50 deliberation period is extended then the
revocation right also extends with it.

Tomorrow evening will see the House of Commons vote whether to proceed with Theresa May's
negotiated EU deal or whether to vote it down. The current odds are against her, hence the large
diagram from The Times below, but given today's ECJ ruling there may be a surprise in the works
from Conservative MPs keen to save face.

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Henry Zeffman The Times

Wednesday 5th December 2018

The Times newspaper today issued a handy visual guide to next Tuesday's Brexit vote,
and the multitude of scenarios that may result from a No vote against Theresa May.

The colourful diagram has gained popularity quickly throughout the day, with news
outlets across the world retweeting and republishing the piece that explains the tricky
situation the UK government and Parliament as a whole now faces.

Click the link here to see Times reporter Henry Zeffman's tweet, or click here for a large
size image of the chart.

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Tuesday 4th December 2018

A motion to charge the UK Government with contempt of Parliament was heard this afternoon
in the House of Commons, with MPs from all parties present to argue for and against the
government's position of refusing to expand on the legal assistance given by the Attorney
General, Geoffrey Cox. The Commons voted in favour of charging the government with contempt,
and demanded that the government share the legal documents in full with the rest of the house.
The leader of the House, Andrea Leadsom, agreed to the demands and insisted that the
documents would be available sometime tomorrow.

The UK Government suffered three voting defeats in total today, with Members of Parliament
also voting that, in the event of Theresa May's current EU deal being voted down, then the
Commons would get another vote after a 'Plan B' was presented to the House - a plan due
within 21 days of Plan A failing to be approved. The vote for the current UK/EU exit is to take
place next Tuesday evening.

Mark Carney Governor of the Bank of England

Earlier, the Bank of England chairman Mark Carney, along with deputy governors Ben Broadbent,
Sir Jon Cunliffe and Sam Woods all testified to the Treasury Select Committee in Parliament
about last week's No Deal Brexit forecast, with MPs quizzing the governors about their findings,
their methods, and their insights into the future of the UK economy in different scenarios.

Today is also the first of five (working) days of Parliamentary debate about the UK's Brexit
deal with the EU. Prime Minister Theresa May will be part of eight hours of debate in the
chamber each day, due to begin mid-afternoon today. After the debates the House of
Commons will then vote whether to accept or reject the deal, with the vote expected to be
held on the evening of Tuesday 11th December.

The timing is perhaps more than coincidental too, with the European Court of Justice's
advocate general reporting today that the UK should be able to legally just walk away from
Brexit. This hasn't been 100% confirmed by the ECoJ, but Scottish MPs presented the
question to the court and were told that a nation does not need the consent of the other
member states to change its mind on a course of action.

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Monday 3rd December 2018

Sir Keir Starmer QC, Labour's Shadow Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union and
former head of the CPS, has this evening called for contempt proceedings against the UK Government
after its refusal to publish the typically confidential legal advice it received from the Attorney
General, Geoffrey Cox.

Labour joined up with the Lib Dems, SNP, the DUP and Plaid Cymru to trigger the 'Contempt of
Parliament' challenge on the grounds that Mr Cox had failed to reveal the full legal advice given
to the government with regards the recently agreed Brexit deal with the EU.

The AG issued a statement detailing the legal position of the UK Government in the Commons,
but went no further. MPs then debated a motion that the government SHOULD release this
information - a motion that comfortably passed in the House.

In response to the challenge, the Speaker of the House - John Bercow - said that there was ‘an
arguable case that a contempt has been committed’ and agreed to hold an emergency debate
early tomorrow with the Commons Standards and Privileges Committee.

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Tuesday 27th November 2018

US President Donald Trump

US President Donald Trump has suggested that the UK's deal with the EU over Brexit is vastly
more beneficial to the European Union and may completely block trade between the UK and
the United States in the future.

Mr Trump, who can be seen speaking to reporters below, said he believes that Theresa May
needs to look at the deal again and make amendments.

A spokesman for 10 Downing Street states that President Trump's interpretation of the deal
was wrong, saying: “The political declaration we have agreed with the EU is very clear we will
have an independent trade policy so that the UK can sign trade deals with countries around
the world – including with the US.”

The Prime Minister appeared on Channel 4 News shortly after this statement to repeat the
message, stating "We will be able to strike trade deals around the rest of the world."

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Sunday 25th November 2018

Leaders of the 27 member states in the European Union have voted unanimously to approve
the UK Brexit deal, as initially agreed between negotiators nearly two weeks ago. The vote
had been under some threat from France over fishing rights and Spain over an existing
trade deal with Gibraltar, but both countries voted in line with the rest of the EU.

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Prime Minister Theresa May now has to present the deal to the UK Parliament in the House of
Commons for approval. Her argument is that this is the best deal the UK was going to get and
the public "do not want to spend any more time arguing about Brexit" but with heavy opposition
from inside and outside her party it's looking unlikely the proposals will pass through the Commons.

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Friday 23rd November 2018

Prime Minister Theresa May and her Brexit negotiators agreed the brief political blurb
to accompany the 585-page legal document for the UK/EU Brexit deal yesterday with
Jean-Claude Juncker and fellow EU negotiators, ahead of further meetings tomorrow
in Brussels.

The EU 27 member states will then vote on the agreement on Sunday, with 20 out of 27
required to vote in favour for the deal to be approved by the European Council. Following
this the PM will then have to return to the House of Commons to present the deal formally
to MPs, which is currently expected to be rejected. ITV News and Buzzfeed News are both
reporting around 88 Tory MPs in open opposition to the plan, not including the opposition
from coalition partners the DUP, and inevitable opposition from the Labour Party.

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Wednesday 21st November 2018

The chairman of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, lent his support to the government's
Brexit deal yesterday, telling the Treasury select committee that the draft deal was better
than the disastrous outcome of no deal, and that it would would “support economic
outcomes” that would be beneficial for the UK.

Mr Carney warned of an “unprecedented supply shock” were the United Kingdom to reach
next March without some form of deal in place; a shock that would cost output and jobs,
while diminishing wages and raising inflation.

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Tuesday 20th November 2018

John Allan CBI Chairman

John Allan, the chairman of the CBI (Confederation of British Industry), lent support to Theresa
May's Brexit deal in a speech yesterday, arguing that while the EU deal isn't as good as was
hoped for, it's a starting point to be worked from rather than something to be thrown away altogether.

Speaking at the CBI's annual conference, Mr Allan avoided focusing on Brexit, instead choosing
to focus on the future and Generation Z; the youth of today who the CBI feels may be left behind
as home ownership and pensions become less achievable in a climate of economic uncertainty.

Both the Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition spoke at the event, with the Prime Minister
following Mr Allan as the opening act of the conference. Theresa May said she " had a very clear
sense of the outcomes I wanted to deliver for people in these negotiations” and that "it is important
that we focus on the new relationship we want to build with the EU", adding that businesses need to
“step up to demonstrate that you truly have a stake in the success of this country” - a reference to
hesitation to stay in the UK and a need for greater worker training and development.

Jeremy Corbyn went on the offensive against the PM and the deal, criticising the lack of transparency
in the process and stating that Labour would vote down the deal in Parliament and, should it lose,
push for another General Election. Mr Corbyn told the conference: “It could not be clearer, business as
usual isn't working. And when the rules of the game aren't working for the overwhelming majority, the
rules of the game need to change”. The CBI responded to the Labour leader's comments, saying "the
Labour approach sounds more command and control" but agreeing that they shared the desire to
tackle inequality for workers.

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Thursday 15th November 2018

Dominic Raab MP Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union

Dominic Raab, the Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union, has resigned from
his position after five months in the position. In a statement, Mr Raab said "I cannot in
good conscience support the terms proposed for our deal with the EU."

Four more ministers have also resigned today; Shailesh Vara (Minister of State at the
Northern Ireland Office), Esther McVey (Work and Pensions Secretary), Anne Marie
Trevelyan (PPS to the Education Ministers) and Suella Braverman (Department for Exiting
the European Union).

Penny Mordaunt (Secretary of State for International Development) is expected to be the
next big name resignation from the government. In response, the Pound and the FTSE 100
& 250 markets are all down, with the price of gold rising to £948 per ounce from a low £923
yesterday - investment demand suggesting a lack of faith in the Pound, Euro, or European
markets.

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Tuesday 13th November 2018

It is being reported that the UK government will hold a special cabinet session tomorrow
to discuss the Brexit deal, specifically focussing on the Irish border dilemma. Reports
from The Sun newspaper and other ministers suggest that the Prime Minister Theresa
May has called for 1 to 1 meetings with all of her cabinet members this evening, ahead
of a full cabinet meeting Wednesday.

The BBC is also reporting that the EU27 states will also have a meeting on Wednesday,
perhaps replicating the UK talks, with ambassadors to congregate for the discussion.

In response to the news, Bloomberg has reported a surge in backing for the Pound to
a six-month high against the Euro, with further suggestion from Ireland's RTE News
that the text for a deal - including a backstop agreement - has finally been reached,
only hours since the UK and EU claimed they had failed in their overnight talks in Brussels.

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Friday 10th November 2018

Jo Johnson MP

Jo Johnson, MP for Orpington, has resigned from his cabinet positions as Minister for
Transport and Minister for London. Mr Johnson - brother of former Foreign Secretary
Boris Johnson - published a lengthy post on the website 'Medium' in which he said he
had to quit as a matter of principle over the direction of the UK's Brexit deal.

In the online statement Johnson said: " It has become increasingly clear to me that
the Withdrawal Agreement, which is being finalised in Brussels and Whitehall even
as I write, will be a terrible mistake."

He later added " What is now being proposed won’t be anything like what was promised
two years ago."

In response to Jo Johnson's resignation the value of Sterling fell 0.7% by the end of the
day's trading.

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Wednesday 8th November 2018

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Democrat senator

The votes are in (mostly) and the outcome was as expected (again, mostly). The US Senate
saw the Republicans gain three seats, with most Republican seats not up for re-election at
present, while the US House of Representatives saw a large swing from Republican to
Democrat as the so-called 'blue wave' ushered in 27 new members to the house.

The election was a night of firsts, with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York (pictured right)
and Abby Finkenauer of Iowa, both 29, becoming the youngest congresswomen in history.
Ilhan Omar (Minnesota) and Rashida Tlaib (Michigan) became the first Muslim women to
be elected to the House, while Sharice Davids (Kansas) and Deb Haaland (New Mexico)
became the first two Native American women elected to the House and Democrat Jared
Polis (Colorado) became the first openly gay US governor.

The outcome means less legislative power for President Trump, but equally ensures a
stalemate to avoid undoing any of his previously enacted economic policies. The result
was a strong response from investors backing both the US Dollar and the US stock
markets - gains that would later hit the Pound and Euro.

Click here to read more about the election night.

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Tuesday 7th November 2018

Today is the day that America goes to the ballot boxes in the Mid-term elections, with the
public going to vote for Congress - the US equivalent of Parliament. Whereas the UK has
the House of Lords (unelected) and the House of Commons (elected MPs), the US had the
Senate and the House of Representatives (both elected). The votes cast today will be for
both tiers of Congress, with 35 senators and 435 members of the House of Representatives,
and a further 36 state governors.

Voting begins at 1pm GMT on the east coast, ending at midnight. The latest voting deadline
is Alaska, at 6am GMT Wednesday morning. The first results, from the east coast, are expected
to be revealed around 8am GMT, with more results coming throughout the day tomorrow.

The US Mid-Terms will be a big test for Donald Trump. He's no stranger to controversy and has
survived more allegations and scandals than arguably any other president. His poll ratings,
however, are very low. A swing in the House of Representatives to the Democrats could be a
sign of things to come in the second half of Trump's presidency, and the House would be able
to influence and hinder legislation to temper a lot of the current administration's goals.

In Brexit terms, the current Republican leadership are very nationalist, favouring the old USA
approach of being isolated and self-sufficient; America doesn't need anyone but itself and
will operate only to serve self interest. This roughly mirrors the UK's approach to leaving the
European Union but a Democrat administration would be a lot more in favour of European
cooperation; maintaining the special relationship with the UK but equally wanting to stay
close to Europe, especially considering many states are also in NATO.

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Monday 6th November 2018

Chris Williamson IHS Markit

In a rather unsurprising statement, the Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit told The
Guardian newspaper that UK companies – especially those in the services sector – are
suffering because of the uncertainty surrounding Brexit.

Chris Williamson said: “The disappointing service sector numbers bring mounting evidence
that Brexit worries are taking an increasing toll on the economy.

“Combined with the manufacturing and construction surveys, the October services PMI
points to the economy growing at a quarterly rate of just 0.2%, setting the scene for GDP
growth to weaken sharply in the fourth quarter.”

Last week data came out showing that UK manufacturing was at a 27-month low as well,
and all the indicators point towards continued economic stagnation until the UK government
and the EU can reach an agreement for Brexit.

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Monday 29th October 2018

Chancellor Philip Hammond took to Parliament at 3:30pm this afternoon to announce the
latest UK Budget, with minimal changes in the run-up to Brexit.

The Chancellor of the Exchequer promised that austerity was coming to an end, whilst
offering nearly £2 billion additional funds to the Ministry of Defence and announcing that
the UK Government was holding £15 billion in reserve as Brexit relief funds, ready for the
unexpected.

One criticism of the Budget was that the UK economy's growth forecasts were based on
the forecasts of the Office for Budget Responsibility, but the OBR has said that its forecasts
are not taking into account a no-deal scenario, suggesting that if a deal cannot be made
then all of the budget promises and predictions may need to be re-done. Mr Hammond did
state during his speech in the Commons that it may be necessary to have a full Spring
Budget to adequately handle the Brexit outcome.

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Friday 26th October 2018

Michael D Higgins President Ireland

The Irish Presidential Election results were announced on Friday, with Michael D Higgins
re-elected for a second seven-year term with 56% of the vote.

The election was the first time that an incumbent president had been challenged in the
past 50 years. Such was the unusual nature of the decision that the turnout - 1,473,900
- was far lower than the eligible level of over 3.2 million Irish citizens.

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Candidates ordered by votes:

  • Michael D Higgins (Independent) 822,566
  • Peter Casey (Independent) 342,727
  • Seán Gallagher (Independent) 94,514
  • Liadh Ní Riada ( Sinn Féin) 93,987
  • Joan Freeman (Independent) 87,908
  • Gavin Duffy (Independent) 32,198

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Saturday 20th October 2018

A 'People's March' took place in London today, with several hundred thousand protestors
taking to the streets around Westminster to demonstrate their wish for a second Brexit
referendum. London Mayor Sadiq Khan was in attendance, as were other MPs including
Labour's Chuka Umunna and Conservative MP Anna Soubry.

A large list of celebrities also appeared to lend their support to the protest, including Sir
Patrick Stewart, Delia Smith, Richard Bacon, Deborah Meaden, Bob Geldof, Eddie Izzard

Many of those in attendance believe that the UK was misled during the 2016 referendum
by the Leave campaign, with claims such as £350m per week to come back to the NHS
deemed a falsehood. Others, including Dragon's Den star Deborah Meaden, cited the reports
that the Leave campaign had broken campaign spending regulations on the way to the
Leave vote's victory.

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Thursday 18th & Friday 19th October 2018

Prime Minister Theresa May met in Brussels for the planned summit with fellow European
leaders, as well as EU President Donald Tusk and Michel Barnier, the chief negotiator for
Brexit on the EU's side.

Discussions at the summit were unsuccessful, with the Northern Ireland situation at the
heart of the disagreements; the 27 EU members are insisting that there be a backstop
agreement which means Northern Ireland has a partial Brexit, to avoid a hard border with
either the Republic of Ireland or with the mainland UK. Theresa May, Dominic Raab, and
the rest of the negotiating team are opposed to this, citing the fact that Northern Ireland
is part of the UK and what applies to one should apply to all.

The next Brexit summit, set to be the final one, was scheduled for November but has since
been cancelled. The belief is that the removal of a time deadline will ease the tensions
between the UK and EU and that a meeting can be arranged once a preliminary agreement
is reached.

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Monday 15th October 2018

Brexit minister Dominic Raab made an impromptu trip to Brussels yesterday for talks with EU
negotiators ahead of the upcoming round of talks between the PM and EU leaders.

Mr Raab's trip was seen as a promising sign, but the reports from the meeting suggest yet
more stalemate between the two parties, with the EU seeking more reassurances that Brexit
won't result in a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic.

The German media is reporting that Theresa May has secretly agreed to a backstop deal with
the EU, despite publicly saying a backstop must apply to the whole UK. The backstop would
temporarily treat Northern Ireland differently to the rest of the UK for trade purposes.

Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Conservatives leader, has sent a letter to the Prime Minister
threatening to resign if such a deal is implemented, while former Foreign Secretary Boris
Johnson wrote in The Telegraph about the EU " treating us with naked contempt" and the DUP
told The Observer that a no-deal Brexit was the probable outcome for the UK now.

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Thursday 11th October 2018

Senior cabinet ministers are due to meet with the Prime Minister for a special Brexit session at
5pm UK time. The meeting, called by Theresa May, is preparation for the EU summit next week
- the penultimate session to negotiate Brexit with Europe's leaders.

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Tuesday 9th October 2018

Shinzō Abe Prime Minister Japan

The Prime Minister of Japan, Shinzō Abe, has said that the United Kingdom would be welcomed
"with open arms" into the Pacific free trade pact. Speaking to the Financial Times, Prime Minister
Abe acknowledge that Britain would no longer be a gateway into Europe following Brexit, but was
still "equipped with global strength".

A post-Brexit deal with Japan is promising, given the fact that over 1,000 Japanese companies
operate in Britain employing approximately 140,000 people, but the Transatlantic Trade Partnership
(TTP) isn't without its own problems. President Trump already ruled the USA out of such a deal,
calling it a bad deal.

In the UK, the Labour Party also opposes the proposal, with leader Jeremy Corbyn saying at an
event back in 2016 (when TTP was first proposed): "Many people are concerned, rightly, that it
could open up public services to further privatisation – and make privatisation effectively irreversible.

"Others are concerned about any potential watering down of consumer rights, food safety standards,
rights at work or environmental protections and the facility for corporations to sue national
governments if regulations impinged on their profits. I share those concerns."

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Monday 8th October 2018

The Industrial Strategy Council, an organisation designed to investigate the UK's low productivity
rates, has appointed the Bank of England's Chief Economist to be its chair. Andy Haldane will lead
the monitoring group, reporting back on infrastructure, innovation, and the state of the workplace.

The council was announced a year ago by business secretary Greg Clark, with Liberal Democrat
leader Sir Vince Cable criticising the delay in finding a chairperson and claiming “Brexit has sucked
the energy out of Whitehall”.

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Accountancy group Deloitte has published a new study today which reports that British businesses
are now the most anxious or concerned about Brexit since the announcement of the referendum result.

Their survey of 95 CFOs reported that only 13% were more optimistic about business prospects than they
were three months ago – an 11% drop from their July report. The report echoes the concerns of the British
Chambers of Commerce from last month, which warned of growth slowing to the point of recession.

79% of the surveyed CFOs said they expect the business environment to be worse in the long-term – a 4%
rise from July, with half of the group saying they will slow down their hiring rates as they remain cautious.

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Halifax is reporting that UK house prices and buying have both dropped in the past month, also citing
Brexit concerns as the reason that prospective buyers are holding off committing to such serious
financial commitments.

The number of homes for sale was a decade low, while the average house price dropped by 1.4% from
August to September. Many regions did report house price rises, but availability of properties was still
down and it's believed that this is what drove those increases.

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Friday 5th October 2018

Leo Varadkar Taoiseach Ireland

Ireland's Taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, believes that there's a "good opportunity " the UK could reach a
Brexit agreement at the EU summit in November. Speaking to reporters today, Mr Varadkar said he
was "very keen " for a resolution, citing talks with the European Council President, Donald Tusk, last
night and hinting that both the UK and EU were willing to make concessions to avoid a hard border.

Ministers from the pro-Remain parties in Northern Ireland met with Michel Barnier and the EU's Brexit
co-coordinator Guy Verhofstadt this morning to discuss their fears about Brexit and the implications
of a hard border. Representatives of Sinn Féin, the SDLP, the Alliance Party and the Green Party met in
Brussels, with Sinn Féin and the SDLP insisting that Stormont (aka the Northern Irish assembly) did not
have a say over the last-resort backstop that is being debated by the UK and EU. Their opinion is that,
due to the lack of instituted government in Northern Ireland, that Stormont is effectively the DUP at the
moment, which gives them the power to veto a final Brexit resolution.

The DUP spoke out today on the matter of the Irish border, saying that a hybrid backstop, with light
regulation of goods travelling between the EU and the UK, would not be acceptable.

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Adam Price, the new leader of Plaid Cymru, is leading calls for Welsh independence in the event of a
hard Brexit. Mr Price wants a second referendum to “avert disaster” but said that a hard Irish border
and no access to the EU single market would raise the demand for Scottish independence and Irish
unity, leaving Wales “at the mercy of Westminster”.

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Thursday 4th October 2018

Ross McEwan CEO RBS

The CEO of the Royal Bank of Scotland, Ross McEwan, has said today that a no-deal Brexit could be the
trigger for recession, and pointed to the strong caution in the construction industry as an indicator of
the reduced levels of investment that might be to come if a deal isn't reached.

Speaking to the BBC, McEwan said: "We are assuming 1-1.5% growth for next year, but if we get a bad
Brexit then that could be zero or negative, and that would affect our profitability and our share price.

"Big businesses are pausing; they are saying that in six months time I’ll have another look at the UK and
I might come back, but if it’s really bad I’ll invest elsewhere – that’s the reality of where we are today."

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Gold is currently at £925.33 per ounce, with the strong US Dollar and US stock markets still pressing down
on the gold price, but the Brexit concerns are keeping prices £20 per ounce higher than those a week ago.

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Wednesday 3rd October 2018

The Conservative Party conference ended today, with Prime Minister Theresa May's speech concluding
the event. The PM said there would be no possibility of another Brexit referendum, suggesting it would
be a case of "a politicians' vote, with politicians simply telling people they got it wrong".

Many people, including Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier, pointed out that the speech made no mention of
the Chequers Proposal - the same proposal rejected recently at a summit in Austria - which might suggest
the UK Government is willing to soften its stance on the Irish border regulations and reach a compromise.

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Tuesday 2nd October 2018

Arlene Foster DUP leader

The price of gold surged on Tuesday to a high of £931 per ounce; a 2% rise in value and a gain of £18.60
per ounce. Fears of an Italian debt crisis were the main driving factor for gold demand, but gold's price was
boosted by the concerns of wary investors. Nerves are beginning to show with only weeks left for the UK to
present an acceptable deal to the European Parliament.

A warning from Northern Ireland's DUP to the Conservatives was behind a lot of these nerves, with Arlene
Foster, the leader of the DUP, calling it "totally irresponsible" if the UK government allows a hard border to be
implemented in the event of no Brexit deal being reached next month.

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